Smack: Evaluating the ups, downs after an early break

1. OK, since many teams used the recent off week for assessments, we'll do the same. What are your biggest surprises and disappointments thus far?

Joe Menzer: Let's see. Biggest surprises: Matt Kenseth winning the first two races, definitely! This from a guy who didn't win all of last year. And Tony Stewart doing so well right out of the box. I thought that would take more time. Biggest disappointment might have to be Joey Logano. After all, I'm the guy who drafted him for my fantasy team! But it's early ... I still expect him to come on later.

David Caraviello: My biggest surprise is David Reutimann. I know the folks at Michael Waltrip Racing expected to be markedly better this year -- they even think they can win three races -- but I don't think anyone on the outside expected him to hang in Chase position for this long.

Dave Rodman: Without a doubt, the biggest surprise to me is Tony Stewart's consistent, high-level performance. He got cooked by a pit sequence deal in the one race where he finished badly and erased a two-lap deficit with the benefit of only one free pass at Atlanta -- that is top-shelf.

David Caraviello: Yeah, but I think people knew Stewart was capable of this, guys. They talked a big game all offseason. And yes, Kenseth did go winless last year, but I don't think anyone's surprised to see the Roush standard-bearer win two events.

Joe Menzer: Well, I was surprised about Kenseth! Look, he's got a new crew chief that some folks in the garage were openly questioning because he's so young (and maybe because of the goofy last name). I think if someone had told any of us that a Roush Fenway driver would win the first two races, we all would have lined up and said that was going to be Carl Edwards, not Kenseth. Maybe even the Biff before Kenseth.

David Caraviello: My biggest disappointment is Mark Martin. This isn't his fault, necessarily -- those back-to-back blown engines buried him -- but to see him sitting on the top 35 fence, in Hendrick equipment, is a little startling. And weren't you guys listening to Tony all winter? They knew they were capable of this. They expected to contend for race wins. Maybe the only surprise there is that they haven't won yet.

Return to Bristol

Quite a bit has changed about Bristol since Mark Martin last raced there in Cup. But, as he says, it's still a race track.

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Dave Rodman: Mark's woes are definitely the biggest disappointment, because statistical history does show that that team is probably screwed as far as making the Chase, and that is a real (racing) tragedy. The stock market rates a lot higher on the "real tragedy" scale these days.

Joe Menzer: What are you putting in your coffee these days, Caraviello? Of course Tony said all the right stuff leading up to the 500. He had to. That doesn't mean he believed it!

David Caraviello: Joe, I drink a hot steaming cup of truth every morning. And the truth is, Stewart would have toned down the rhetoric considerably if he thought they were going to struggle.

Dave Rodman: I heard Tony. I did not believe. A-la Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus, give a lot of credit to the most recent, soon-to-be-more-famous Hendrick graduate, Darian Grubb. Huge strategic call at Atlanta, and bad-ass race cars week in and week out, plus marshaling a new team. Good -- no, make that great stuff.

Joe Menzer: Well, I'm not surprised he has had some good finishes. I just didn't expect him to have this many good finishes strung together, plus he ran well in the one race he didn't finish high. He himself said in Atlanta that his consistency has surprised him.

David Caraviello: And we're piling on Joey Logano already? Kid came in with what, three previous Cup starts and no testing all winter, and we expect him to run up front? I still think with time, Joey is going to be OK. Man, I'd hate to play youth basketball for coach Menzer. What a taskmaster he must be!

Joe Menzer: Kids love to play for me. I bribe them -- pizza and ice cream for baskets!

Dave Rodman: Coach Menzer is a T machine. You would never think, in any of these media centers, that you were sharing work space with a Bobby Knight clone, would you? Roll out the ball rack and run away.

Joe Menzer: Only one T this year, folks. And I didn't even deserve that one! But we digress ... although the biggest disappointment to me this year was our first-round ouster in the recent tournament.

David Caraviello: So Joe and Mark Martin can commiserate.

Joe Menzer: We're about the same age, too, so we can commiserate about that as well.

2. Over the last 10 races at Bristol, no driver has scored more points than Dale Earnhardt Jr. Is he primed for a breakout?

Joe Menzer: After having predicted several breakouts for Junior in the past, only to have them fail to materialize, I must say that at this time, I'm just not feeling it for him or that No. 88 team. Something seems off there.

David Caraviello: I think he's heading in that direction anyway, with top-11 finishes in his last two races. I think that slow start is behind them, and they're getting it together where it really matters -- 1.5-mile intermediate tracks, the staple of the Sprint Cup tour.

Dave Rodman: I think they started to come around at Atlanta, didn't they? And they haven't run quite as bad as they've ended up. I think if the cars stay together and they don't get ambushed, both Bristol and Martinsville would rate as good performances. I'd put Kurt Busch on my fantasy team first, though, and that's saying something.

The Junior effect

Despite just one win in the last 102 Cup races, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a one-man economic powerhouse. But why?

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Joe Menzer: I think Boss Man, Duane Cross, already gobbled up Kurt Busch. And he's (rightfully) bragging about it.

Dave Rodman: So far that's certainly the case, Joe, but I kinda think we're seeing a Kurt Busch circa 2004 performance setting up, here. And this is the 2009-era Busch, so that is a chilling prospect for the competition.

David Caraviello: I will admit, that Bristol statistic surprised me a bit. I would have guessed Kevin Harvick in that category (though I believe he's second). But Junior does have only one finish worse than 11th over his last 10 races there -- although that was an 18th his last time out. Though he did win there in the fall of 2004.

Joe Menzer: I'm a little surprised by that stat as well. But then again, Junior has become really adept about producing decent points finishes without seriously contending for the wins. It's time for him to contend for more wins at the end.

David Caraviello: Well, we'll save Kurt for later in Track Smack. As for Junior, really, the guy's not in terrible shape compared to some others. True, he has to dig himself out of an early-season hole again, but he has some of his better tracks coming up.

Joe Menzer: I just get the feeling that the No. 88 team is too content with "good points days." He needs to win some races. And the only way to win races is to be up there fighting for them at the end, which he hasn't been able to do much lately. And by lately, I mean over the last two and a half years.

David Caraviello: Joe, I disagree. Sitting 24th in points or wherever he is, it's all about good finishes. He needs them right now. Why risk a third going for first if the gamble could leave you further behind? If you're in Jeff Gordon's situation, go for it. But not Junior's.

Joe Menzer: It's exactly that kind of attitude that is killing racing!

Dave Rodman: As I said a couple Smacks ago, Junior is good just about everywhere. He and Tony Jr. are apt to get off track anywhere -- but just about everyone else is, too. And if he's able to concentrate on what he needs to get in shape with the race car leading up to race day, and then he can communicate what it needs and the team can keep it under him, they'll do well.

Joe Menzer: Go for the wins, man!

David Caraviello: Ideally, yes. But that's not always practical.

Joe Menzer: But that's just it. That should be what these guys go for every week. It isn't, but it should be.

"Bring it, Joe. Whoooo!"

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Dave Rodman: Practicality is virtually killing racing, as Joe pointed out.

David Caraviello: That's like saying "go for the dunk" when a layup will do, and then you thunk it off the side of the rim. I know you can't personally relate to that metaphor, Joe, but try anyway.

Joe Menzer: Who is the most exciting racer out there right now? Kyle Busch? You think he gives a hoot about a "good points finish?" I don't. He thirsts to win. That's what drives him, and that's one reason he's up front so much. Have that attitude and the dang points should take care of themselves, or at least you'll make a hero of yourself while trying.

David Caraviello: Joe's been hanging around Ric Flair a little too much.

Dave Rodman: You gotta be racing for wins, and even if you don't have a winning car, you need to keep striving to get the next spot. Those points have proven to count. And chunking a dunk is the equivalent of wrecking one. You gotta know where aspirations outrun talent and stop just shy of that point. That, too, is the beauty of racing and excelling.

David Caraviello: Well, I know all about aspirations outstripping talent. But hey, the way this points structure is set up, it's all risk versus reward. That has to be taken in consideration, is all I'm saying. Just like the guy with the big stack at the poker table can call anything, while the guy with the little stack may be happy to finish anywhere in the money. It happens.

Joe Menzer: I relate more to heaving in a 3-pointer from 27 feet out. You miss one, keep chucking it! (Maybe that's why my team lost in the first round of our tournament).

David Caraviello: Joe is really burnishing his coaching credentials in this Track Smack!

3. Brothers Kyle and Kurt Busch have won the last two Sprint Cup races. Given their success at Bristol, can they make it three in a row?

David Caraviello: Absolutely. I like Kyle in this race a lot. I'm sure he hasn't forgotten last year's tete-a-tete with Carl Edwards in the fall event at Bristol, and the way that race ended. The kid is really good there, so I think a Busch three-peat is definitely a possibility.

Joe Menzer: Certainly, they could. Both have won there. Kurt multiple times, in fact. Don't forget, too, that they combined to win three races in a row at one point last year. So they definitely could get it done.

Ranking brothers

Kyle and Kurt Busch are obviously a talented duo, but they aren't the best brother combination in NASCAR ... yet.

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Dave Rodman: They sure can. This is picking up to be a really fascinating race season. I was reading some message boards and people were taking the networks to task for not keeping them up with the field. These cats (out in TV land) need to launch Live Leaderboard on NASCAR.COM. They'll get an education in running orders, lap times, position differentials and race watching, by God.

Joe Menzer: Nice plug for the home office, Roadman. You tryin' to get another raise?

David Caraviello: Rodman, bringing the fire and the brimstone! I think the TV guys do a nice job, for the most part, although they have tended to sugar-coat some things this year.

Dave Rodman: Sorry for getting off-track with a shameless plug. The Busches are a pair who can contend anywhere -- at least Kurt could when his stuff is right to his liking -- and Pat Tryson and the boys are delivering. Kyle, actually, is not gonna contend everywhere, as Atlanta proved. But they have both won at Bristol, though Kurt will have to prove he can do it with this car, on the current track. But I think he can.

Joe Menzer: Any number of guys could emerge victorious at Bristol, of course. But I'm going to go out on a limb here. I'm not picking Junior, I'm not picking either of the Busch brothers. I'm picking Cousin Carl Edwards.

Dave Rodman: To skip back, Joe, I was citing the fans' harpooning of the network guys. They certainly have faults, but failing to keep me abreast of what's going on isn't one of them. Since I've made the mistake of participating in two fantasy deals -- one of them for money -- I'm all too painfully aware of where everyone is at any moment.

David Caraviello: I think people underestimate how good Kurt is, because the last few years have been kind of lean over at Penske, and because his championship came in the first year of the Chase. But this is still a guy with as many career race wins as Davey Allison, Buddy Baker and Fonty Flock. And more wins than Geoffrey Bodine, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Harry Gant, Ernie Irvan and Tim Richmond. That's pretty strong company.

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Joe Menzer: He also has one more career win now than Matt Kenseth, I believe, after Matt had surged to tie him following those two opening-season salvos. Kurt also obviously has been overshadowed in the last year by Kyle, whose rise has not only been mercurial but also, at least from time to time, controversial enough as to be unforgettable.

Dave Rodman: Kurt has a way of rubbing a lot of people the wrong way. That's what makes his success this season even cooler, because his guys continue to take a little bit of a beating sometimes (on the radio) and they don't hesitate a bit when it comes to supporting their guy when it counts. Ditto with Kyle at Las Vegas. You have to look past the surface, just like there's a lot of slag on the surface of most gold mines.

David Caraviello: Yes, he has been overshadowed by his little brother, and to his credit doesn't seem to mind. People forget that Kurt won four out of five races at Bristol at one point. He loves the place.

Dave Rodman: Joe, I think Carl is flat desperate to make it happen in the Cup race this weekend. If you had asked him if he wouldn't have won through four races, he and Bob Osborne would have looked at you funny and said, "No freaking way."

Joe Menzer: Here's the thing: even though Kurt is careful to say all the right things about Kyle and all the attention Kyle has received over the last year or so, I think it does bother him to a degree. I think it possibly motivates him as well, which is not a bad thing.

Dave Rodman: I don't think it bothers him. It seems to me I read a quote recently from back about five years ago where Kurt was saying words to the effect of "wait until you see my little brother ..." At least, I think it was Kurt that said it. I think he loves him and loves his success -- but yes, it's mighty powerful motivation.

Joe Menzer: And Carl, as Roadman so duly noted, is motivated to go for the win, too. That's what all these guys, Junior included, need to have engraved on their brains.

David Caraviello: That is the Coach Menzer Way. Failure is not an option! Lose and no ice cream, kids!

Joe Menzer: No pizza, either, dang it!

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.