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After this weekend's Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway, the top 35 cars in 2009 owner points will be guaranteed a starting spot in each week's race (for the first five races, the 2008 owner points were used).
That could spell trouble for two marquee drivers: Mark Martin and Ryan Newman.
Martin's No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet sits exactly on the top-35 bubble -- in 35th place, nine points ahead of the No. 8 Earnhardt Ganassi Chevrolet driven by Aric Almirola.
Newman enjoys a slightly more comfortable position -- 32nd, 38 points ahead of Almirola.
Below are their stats through four races this season:
| Driver | Avg. Finish | Avg. Running Pos. | Fastest Laps Run | Laps Top 15% | Driver Rating | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Newman | 27.8 | 24.1 | 10 | 30.3% | 62.4 | 3 |
| M. Martin | 31.8 | 17.2 | 31 | 60.3% | 86.4 | 7 |
The above numbers illustrate the bad luck Martin has encountered this season (whereas Newman's statistics generally match his standings position). In fact, Martin ranks in the top 15 in most key Loop Data statistics. For instance:
| Pos. | Driver | Driver Rating | Pos. | Driver | Avg. Run Pos. | Pos. | Driver | Fastest Laps Run | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jeff Gordon | 120.5 | 1. | Jeff Gordon | 5.818 | 1. | Jeff Gordon | 100 | ||
| 2. | Kurt Busch | 108.2 | 2. | Jimmie Johnson | 8.487 | 2. | Kurt Busch | 94 | ||
| 3. | Carl Edwards | 104.3 | 3. | Kurt Busch | 8.507 | 3. | Greg Biffle | 90 | ||
| 4. | Jimmie Johnson | 104.2 | 4. | Carl Edwards | 8.583 | 4. | Jimmie Johnson | 81 | ||
| 5. | Kyle Busch | 104.0 | 5. | Denny Hamlin | 11.389 | 5. | Kyle Busch | 59 | ||
| 13. | Mark Martin | 86.4 | 14. | Mark Martin | 17.167 | 7. | Mark Martin | 31 |
The statistics suggest that sooner or later luck should turn for Martin. But the big question could be this: After a two-year Bristol layoff, how will Martin fare?
When Martin switched to a partial schedule after the 2006 season, the Bristol races got cut from his slate. In his career, Martin has two wins there, but the last came in 1998. In the last 12 races, Martin has finished inside the top 10 only once. In his last four races since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, he has only scored one Driver Rating higher than 100:
| Date | Finish | Avg. Run Pos. | Fastest Laps Run | Laps T-15% | Rating | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/05 | 31 | 23.0 | 1 | 22.8% | 53.2 | 0 |
| 8/05 | 16 | 13.9 | 3 | 72.8% | 82.2 | 0 |
| 3/06 | 6 | 8.1 | 13 | 99.2% | 103.6 | 0 |
| 8/06 | 28 | 28.7 | 7 | 12.6% | 56.6 | 0 |
| Total | 20.3 | 18.4 | 24 | 51.9% | 73.9 | 0 |
Newman has been hit or miss at Bristol -- but mostly hit. He has scored top-10 finishes in four of the last six races. His numbers in that span:
| Date | Finish | Avg. Run Pos. | Fastest Laps Run | Laps T-15% | Rating | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/06 | 9 | 12.1 | 9 | 66.6% | 90.3 | 0 |
| 8/06 | 8 | 10.8 | 8 | 93.4% | 93.8 | 0 |
| 3/07 | 39 | 31.6 | 11 | 0.2% | 53.9 | 0 |
| 8/07 | 7 | 5.0 | 28 | 100% | 112.5 | 2 |
| 3/08 | 33 | 29.8 | 11 | 13.4% | 55.6 | 0 |
| 8/08 | 6 | 6.2 | 21 | 100% | 109.0 | 0 |
| Total | 17.0 | 15.9 | 88 | 62.3% | 85.9 | 2 |
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