Smack: Gordon's climb will fall a couple of rungs short (cont'd)

2. It's off to Phoenix, where Jimmie Johnson has won three consecutive races. What are his chances for four in a row?

Joe Menzer: Given that he and the aforementioned Mr. Gordon often like to one-up each other, I'd have to say Mr. Johnson's chances of making it four in a row in Phoenix are pretty darn good.

Duane Cross: Anyone want to bet against it? I think the No. 48 team will roll into Phoenix pretty confident that it will take a chunk out of Gordon's 162-point lead.

Jimmie Johnson

Multiple wins per track

Site	No.	W	Avg. Fin.
Martinsville	15	6	5.3
Charlotte	15	5	8.9
Phoenix	11	3	5.5
Fontana	13	3	6.2
Atlanta	16	3	9.1
Dover	14	3	11.1
Las Vegas	8	3	11.1
Richmond	14	3	17.5
Darlington	10	2	7.4
Pocono	14	2	9.8
New Hampshire	14	2	9.9
Indianapolis	7	2	20.3

David Caraviello: I'm a little torn on this one. No question, he's really good there -- won three in a row, average finish of 5.5. But he's not automatic there, like he is at Martinsville, or was at Charlotte at one time. And a lot of drivers are really good at Phoenix.

Joe Menzer: Well, good. We have at least one guy who wants to disagree. And I'll go out on a limb as well and say that while I expect Jimmie to run well this weekend, I don't think he'll win. Call it a gut feeling. And as you know, I've got a pretty big gut.

Duane Cross: And Gordon is one of those drivers who's good at Phoenix, David. He's right there at Johnson's heels in regards to average finish the past 10 races -- but Jimmie out-points him with wins.

David Caraviello: No question, Johnson went out and whipped everybody last fall at Phoenix, all but clinching the championship. But he won the spring race, the second in this streak, on fuel mileage. He didn't have the best car in that event -- Mark Martin did, in a No. 8 that won't even make the trip this time around.

Joe Menzer: Maybe Jimmie will finish second. He'd probably be happy with that, right, Duane?

David Caraviello: I believe that's what they call a "good points day," Joe. And lots of drivers are happy with that.

Joe Menzer: Too many of 'em, in fact. I will agree with Duane on that one.

Duane Cross: The battle I'll be watching is the lower end of the top 12. David Reutimann hasn't posted the good finishes at PIR, while Kevin Harvick is pretty slick at the track. Harvick could move into the top 12 again.

David Caraviello: Harvick is very good in Phoenix. So is Tony Stewart. So is Dale Earnhardt Jr. So is Matt Kenseth. So is Jeff Burton. Plenty of options this time around.

Joe Menzer: You know the guy you haven't mentioned who might just surprise everyone with a run that puts him back in the top 12 in points? Juan Montoya. He's never finished better than 16th there, but then he's never been coached by me on his fantasy team, either. In all seriousness, this guy is putting together a pretty nice season.

Duane Cross: No doubt some of the top-12 guys would be content with a good points night at Phoenix. We're to the point where the cream is rising to the top and now it's about maintaining a top-12 position and gearing up for the Chase run. Yes, even in April, as absurd as that sounds on the surface.

David Caraviello: Speaking of fantasy -- Joe, I can't help it that you guys live in this fantasy world where you think every driver should go full-bore for the victory all the time. That's simply not practical. Sometimes, third or fourth -- or aghast, even second -- is the best you can do, and you're happy to get it. Joe, it's like when you and I play basketball. After I've dunked on you for the fifth time, you realize second is the best you can do, and you gladly take it.

Joe Menzer: Listen, I fully understand that there are days when the best a driver can do is take what is a 10th-place car and finish 10th with it. But I also believe guys like Johnson and Gordon will take the same car and contend for a top-five -- or a win -- with it. They just aren't content with settling for whatever "should be" and driving to stay out of trouble. And that's why they win so much -- at the expenses of so many others who do.

Duane Cross: Um, David -- finishing second in a race is apples and oranges to the argument over finishing second on the all-time wins list. Yeah, it's cool -- but it ain't 72-point bold headlines at the end of the day.

David Caraviello: Hey, every driver wants to win. Not going to argue that. But mechanical limitations being what they are, I think there are plenty of days when even Jimmie and Jeff have been content to take it home third or fourth and bank some points. Now, when you have a long winless skid like Jeff did, that's another story. But remember, this system ultimately rewards consistency.

Duane Cross: And if you've dunked, I've taken Josh Beckett over the Green Monster!

David Caraviello: Well, it was a 9-foot basket. (Continued)