Smack: Gordon's climb will fall a couple of rungs short (cont'd)

3. Mark Martin, once buried in points, is now up to 18th. Will he make the Chase? And at whose expense?

Duane Cross: As much as that may be a feel-good story ... no, he won't make the Chase. There are too many good drivers ahead of him in points.

David Caraviello: OK, for once in this Smack I am going to stop playing the contrarian role and offer an unequivocal yes. Martin will make the Chase. And he'll bump out either David Reutimann or Kasey Kahne.

Mark Martin

2009 results

Site	Finish	Points	Rank
Daytona	16	120	15
Fontana	40*	48	27
Las Vegas	40*	43	34
Atlanta	31	75	34
Bristol	6	155	31
Martinsville	7	146	27
Texas	6	155	18

* DNF (engine)

Joe Menzer: I think Reutimann and Kasey Kahne are the most vulnerable of those currently in the top 12 -- and no, folks, I don't have a vendetta against either one. Just my honest opinion. But I will say no, Martin falls short and a couple of others get in. I think I like Greg Biffle's chances, and either Harvick or my dark horse, the aforementioned Montoya.

David Caraviello: Guys, Martin has been shooting up the charts faster than a Kasey Kasem No. 1 hit. He made up nine -- nine! -- positions at Texas alone. All those troubles of early in the season weren't his fault. Cracking the top 12 is only a matter of time,

Joe Menzer: Do we have no Chase takers for Martin's more celebrated teammate, Dale Earnhardt Jr.? He currently sits in 16th. And by the way, Biffle made up eight spots in the last race.

David Caraviello: Right, but nobody's arguing whether Biffle is good enough to make the Chase. Biffle wasn't buried in like 150th place in points a few weeks ago. Martin is now performing like everybody thought he could in a Hendrick car. He's made up tons of positions in the last few weeks, and has 19 races to make up six more. I like the math there, especially after the way he's run the past few weeks.

Duane Cross: Look, Martin will have to overcome his early season woes as well as history: He doesn't run particularly well at many of the tracks we're coming up on. Yes, he averages a top-20 at all tracks -- but he's going to have to reel off some wins to get a grip on a Chase berth. I just don't see that happening. And I say wins because he'll need to maximize his points days, considering the guys in front of him also have the ability to win on any given Sunday.

Joe Menzer: Aw, a couple seconds would do it. That's good enough, ain't it?

Duane Cross: Depends on who takes first, Joe. Especially if it's his teammate driving the No. 88.

David Caraviello: I don't think Martin has to win at all, not just to make the Chase. I don't have the stats in front of me, but did everyone who made the Chase last year win races? I don't think so. And yes, a few second-place runs would have him right up there. The 88 is a wait-and-see -- we're still wondering which part of that Jekyll-and-Hyde race team is going to be the dominant one this season. But Martin is proving that when he's not blowing tires or blowing engines, he can be very good.

Duane Cross: That's just what the sport needs -- more guys points racing! That's something to get excited about! I can't wait to watch these guys "settle." Y'all should consider PR.

David Caraviello: Duane evidently didn't get the memo about how important this "consistency" thing is in the points structure!

Duane Cross: Yeah, not big on memos.

Joe Menzer: You know, I like Dale Jr., I really do. I like his crew chief, Tony Eury Jr., too. But I don't know if the guy is ever going to become a dominant race car driver. Same with Martin, really. I like him, too, but the guy has been racing since the Stone Ages and I don't think you can say someone who has raced that long without a championship has ever been dominant.

Duane Cross: Folks, that's joe.menzer@turner.com. Joe, everyone "wants" Dale Jr. to be dominant. It makes for a good story. It might sell someone another book or three. It might do a lot of things. In the meantime, let's just call a spade a spade: He's a good driver. He'll never be his dad -- and he never asked to be or wanted to be. He's Dale -- just let him be. He's a cool dude -- but he's never doing to reach (or exceed) the expectations many seem to have placed on him. As for Mark, that championship window closed. Even if he points-races himself into the Chase.

Joe Menzer: And to heck with PR! I'm going to PIR to watch some racin' -- and I hope to heck it isn't just a bunch of guys jockeying for "good points days." Makes me want to throw up!

The opinions expressed are solely of the participants.