Smack: Gordon's climb will fall a couple of rungs short

1. Now that Jeff Gordon is off the skids, what are the odds that he catches David Pearson for second on NASCAR's all-time victory list?

David Caraviello: As cool as that would be, it's not going to happen. What does he need, like 23 more race wins? That's asking a lot from a guy who's just won once the past two seasons. Gordon is capable of winning a lot more before he's done -- but not quite that much more.

Joe Menzer: He's still, I believe, 23 wins shy of tying Pearson. So it's no given that he will get there. It's harder than ever to crank out wins these days, and I'm not sure Gordon will keep racing full time much past 40. But if he wins a bunch more this year, the conversation about it will start getting more serious.

Duane Cross: Ain't happening, much to the chagrin of the Rainbow Warrior Nation. He has nine wins since the start of the 2006 season -- and six of those came in '07 -- and while time marches on, it's passed Gordon in this regard.

David Caraviello: Yeah 23 race wins is about as many as he's had in the past six years. And I don't think Jeff is racing for six more years. The guy is going to go live life at some point. Not that he doesn't have a great life right now, of course.

Joe Menzer: I do believe that Gordon is about to get on a serious roll and will win multiple races this season -- I'll say five or more. Say he wins six this year and next. He'll still ultimately fall short, finish somewhere in the 90s.

Duane Cross: Joe, that's the key -- Jeff's age, while relatively young in the big picture, will be a factor. He has a life -- and strapping into a stock car 40 times a year isn't going to be his driving force.

Joe Menzer: I think the better question then, or at least the more realistic one, is will Gordon finish with 90-plus career wins and third on the all-time list? To that, I say a resounding yes.

David Caraviello: He's at 82 now. I would think passing Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip and Bobby Allison for third all time is a given. And right behind Pearson and the King isn't a bad place to be.

All-Time Wins List

Pos.	Driver	Wins	Age 37+
1.	R. Petty	200	41
2.	D. Pearson	105	45
3.	B. Allison	84	41
	D. Waltrip	84	27
5.	C. Yarborough	83	51
6.	J. Gordon	82	1
7.	D. Earnhardt	76	43
8.	R. Wallace	55	29
9.	L. Petty	54	52
10.	N. Jarrett	50	0*
	J. Johnson	50	0^

* Quit driving at age 34
^ Quit driving at age 35

Duane Cross: It's not -- and to be able to get out with faculties intact ... well, growing old with Ingrid and Ella isn't a bad thing, either. Everyone deserves happiness; Gordon has been such a beacon for this sport, he deserves whatever he wishes. But since when did "second on the list" become the benchmark? Or even "the third driver to win at least 100 races." There is no uniqueness there -- so why should that be a factor in Gordon's decision?

Joe Menzer: Now on that I will disagree, Mr. Cross. I think for Gordon to catch the Silver Fox for second place would be unique. I don't think it will happen -- or even be a driving force in Gordon's motivation -- but it would definitely be unique. And special.

David Caraviello: Nobody's saying it will factor into any decision he makes. We're just wondering if he's capable of it. And given that Richard Petty's all-time mark of 200 wins is completely out of reach by any modern standard, 100 does stand as something of a benchmark.

Duane Cross: Wow, we've reached the point where being second is good enough. Think being second in the NFL is a good place to be? OK, let's "settle" and be happy. And while that's harsh, let's be real: These guys don't race for second.

David Caraviello: You know what? Nothing against Jeff, but I like the fact that Pearson may hold on to second for much, much longer. Maybe because he keeps a low profile and lives a quiet life in South Carolina, people completely undersell the guy. When truth is, his sheer ability was probably second to none.

Joe Menzer: You have to remember that Pearson won 105 without hardly ever running the full schedule. And he didn't like running second.

Duane Cross: I'll say it again: David Pearson is the greatest stock-car driver of all time. What he did -- on his own terms, no less -- is remarkable.

David Caraviello: Oh come on, people. For any current driver, second is the only realistic prospect here. Nobody is ever, ever going to approach 200 wins. Pearson is the only real goal to shoot for. That's why we Smack about it.

Joe Menzer: For now, I think we're in agreement that even Pearson's total is untouchable. If Gordon gets on an incredible roll this year or next, then we'll talk again.

Duane Cross: OK, settle for second -- but it makes for a watered-down celebrating: Woo-hoo! I'm second!

David Caraviello: Hey, when the day comes that somebody catches Pearson, something tells me the headlines will say differently.

2. It's off to Phoenix, where Jimmie Johnson has won three consecutive races. What are his chances for four in a row?

Joe Menzer: Given that he and the aforementioned Mr. Gordon often like to one-up each other, I'd have to say Mr. Johnson's chances of making it four in a row in Phoenix are pretty darn good.

Duane Cross: Anyone want to bet against it? I think the No. 48 team will roll into Phoenix pretty confident that it will take a chunk out of Gordon's 162-point lead.

Jimmie Johnson

Multiple wins per track

Site	No.	W	Avg. Fin.
Martinsville	15	6	5.3
Charlotte	15	5	8.9
Phoenix	11	3	5.5
Fontana	13	3	6.2
Atlanta	16	3	9.1
Dover	14	3	11.1
Las Vegas	8	3	11.1
Richmond	14	3	17.5
Darlington	10	2	7.4
Pocono	14	2	9.8
New Hampshire	14	2	9.9
Indianapolis	7	2	20.3

David Caraviello: I'm a little torn on this one. No question, he's really good there -- won three in a row, average finish of 5.5. But he's not automatic there, like he is at Martinsville, or was at Charlotte at one time. And a lot of drivers are really good at Phoenix.

Joe Menzer: Well, good. We have at least one guy who wants to disagree. And I'll go out on a limb as well and say that while I expect Jimmie to run well this weekend, I don't think he'll win. Call it a gut feeling. And as you know, I've got a pretty big gut.

Duane Cross: And Gordon is one of those drivers who's good at Phoenix, David. He's right there at Johnson's heels in regards to average finish the past 10 races -- but Jimmie out-points him with wins.

David Caraviello: No question, Johnson went out and whipped everybody last fall at Phoenix, all but clinching the championship. But he won the spring race, the second in this streak, on fuel mileage. He didn't have the best car in that event -- Mark Martin did, in a No. 8 that won't even make the trip this time around.

Joe Menzer: Maybe Jimmie will finish second. He'd probably be happy with that, right, Duane?

David Caraviello: I believe that's what they call a "good points day," Joe. And lots of drivers are happy with that.

Joe Menzer: Too many of 'em, in fact. I will agree with Duane on that one.

Duane Cross: The battle I'll be watching is the lower end of the top 12. David Reutimann hasn't posted the good finishes at PIR, while Kevin Harvick is pretty slick at the track. Harvick could move into the top 12 again.

David Caraviello: Harvick is very good in Phoenix. So is Tony Stewart. So is Dale Earnhardt Jr. So is Matt Kenseth. So is Jeff Burton. Plenty of options this time around.

Joe Menzer: You know the guy you haven't mentioned who might just surprise everyone with a run that puts him back in the top 12 in points? Juan Montoya. He's never finished better than 16th there, but then he's never been coached by me on his fantasy team, either. In all seriousness, this guy is putting together a pretty nice season.

Duane Cross: No doubt some of the top-12 guys would be content with a good points night at Phoenix. We're to the point where the cream is rising to the top and now it's about maintaining a top-12 position and gearing up for the Chase run. Yes, even in April, as absurd as that sounds on the surface.

David Caraviello: Speaking of fantasy -- Joe, I can't help it that you guys live in this fantasy world where you think every driver should go full-bore for the victory all the time. That's simply not practical. Sometimes, third or fourth -- or aghast, even second -- is the best you can do, and you're happy to get it. Joe, it's like when you and I play basketball. After I've dunked on you for the fifth time, you realize second is the best you can do, and you gladly take it.

Joe Menzer: Listen, I fully understand that there are days when the best a driver can do is take what is a 10th-place car and finish 10th with it. But I also believe guys like Johnson and Gordon will take the same car and contend for a top-five -- or a win -- with it. They just aren't content with settling for whatever "should be" and driving to stay out of trouble. And that's why they win so much -- at the expenses of so many others who do.

Duane Cross: Um, David -- finishing second in a race is apples and oranges to the argument over finishing second on the all-time wins list. Yeah, it's cool -- but it ain't 72-point bold headlines at the end of the day.

David Caraviello: Hey, every driver wants to win. Not going to argue that. But mechanical limitations being what they are, I think there are plenty of days when even Jimmie and Jeff have been content to take it home third or fourth and bank some points. Now, when you have a long winless skid like Jeff did, that's another story. But remember, this system ultimately rewards consistency.

Duane Cross: And if you've dunked, I've taken Josh Beckett over the Green Monster!

David Caraviello: Well, it was a 9-foot basket.

3. Mark Martin, once buried in points, is now up to 18th. Will he make the Chase? And at whose expense?

Duane Cross: As much as that may be a feel-good story ... no, he won't make the Chase. There are too many good drivers ahead of him in points.

David Caraviello: OK, for once in this Smack I am going to stop playing the contrarian role and offer an unequivocal yes. Martin will make the Chase. And he'll bump out either David Reutimann or Kasey Kahne.

Mark Martin

2009 results

Site	Finish	Points	Rank
Daytona	16	120	15
Fontana	40*	48	27
Las Vegas	40*	43	34
Atlanta	31	75	34
Bristol	6	155	31
Martinsville	7	146	27
Texas	6	155	18

* DNF (engine)

Joe Menzer: I think Reutimann and Kasey Kahne are the most vulnerable of those currently in the top 12 -- and no, folks, I don't have a vendetta against either one. Just my honest opinion. But I will say no, Martin falls short and a couple of others get in. I think I like Greg Biffle's chances, and either Harvick or my dark horse, the aforementioned Montoya.

David Caraviello: Guys, Martin has been shooting up the charts faster than a Kasey Kasem No. 1 hit. He made up nine -- nine! -- positions at Texas alone. All those troubles of early in the season weren't his fault. Cracking the top 12 is only a matter of time,

Joe Menzer: Do we have no Chase takers for Martin's more celebrated teammate, Dale Earnhardt Jr.? He currently sits in 16th. And by the way, Biffle made up eight spots in the last race.

David Caraviello: Right, but nobody's arguing whether Biffle is good enough to make the Chase. Biffle wasn't buried in like 150th place in points a few weeks ago. Martin is now performing like everybody thought he could in a Hendrick car. He's made up tons of positions in the last few weeks, and has 19 races to make up six more. I like the math there, especially after the way he's run the past few weeks.

Duane Cross: Look, Martin will have to overcome his early season woes as well as history: He doesn't run particularly well at many of the tracks we're coming up on. Yes, he averages a top-20 at all tracks -- but he's going to have to reel off some wins to get a grip on a Chase berth. I just don't see that happening. And I say wins because he'll need to maximize his points days, considering the guys in front of him also have the ability to win on any given Sunday.

Joe Menzer: Aw, a couple seconds would do it. That's good enough, ain't it?

Duane Cross: Depends on who takes first, Joe. Especially if it's his teammate driving the No. 88.

David Caraviello: I don't think Martin has to win at all, not just to make the Chase. I don't have the stats in front of me, but did everyone who made the Chase last year win races? I don't think so. And yes, a few second-place runs would have him right up there. The 88 is a wait-and-see -- we're still wondering which part of that Jekyll-and-Hyde race team is going to be the dominant one this season. But Martin is proving that when he's not blowing tires or blowing engines, he can be very good.

Duane Cross: That's just what the sport needs -- more guys points racing! That's something to get excited about! I can't wait to watch these guys "settle." Y'all should consider PR.

David Caraviello: Duane evidently didn't get the memo about how important this "consistency" thing is in the points structure!

Duane Cross: Yeah, not big on memos.

Joe Menzer: You know, I like Dale Jr., I really do. I like his crew chief, Tony Eury Jr., too. But I don't know if the guy is ever going to become a dominant race car driver. Same with Martin, really. I like him, too, but the guy has been racing since the Stone Ages and I don't think you can say someone who has raced that long without a championship has ever been dominant.

Duane Cross: Folks, that's joe.menzer@turner.com. Joe, everyone "wants" Dale Jr. to be dominant. It makes for a good story. It might sell someone another book or three. It might do a lot of things. In the meantime, let's just call a spade a spade: He's a good driver. He'll never be his dad -- and he never asked to be or wanted to be. He's Dale -- just let him be. He's a cool dude -- but he's never doing to reach (or exceed) the expectations many seem to have placed on him. As for Mark, that championship window closed. Even if he points-races himself into the Chase.

Joe Menzer: And to heck with PR! I'm going to PIR to watch some racin' -- and I hope to heck it isn't just a bunch of guys jockeying for "good points days." Makes me want to throw up!

The opinions expressed are solely of the participants.