Track Smack: Time is a tickin' on Roush Fenway (cont'd)

3. Time for Talladega. What are the odds that Tony Stewart becomes the first driver-owner to win since Ricky Rudd did it in 1998?

David Caraviello: Oh goodness gracious. It's Talladega. Who knows? Pick a number out of a hat. Seriously, did anyone have Regan Smith in the pool last fall? Something tells me no.

Joe Menzer: It's always a crapshoot at 'Dega, but I like Tony's chances. He has been building momentum for several weeks now and knows what he's doing at the place where so many others don't. So if he can stay out of trouble and be there at the end ... And, um, Regan Smith didn't win last year, remember? Or at least NASCAR said so.

Stewart and Newman

Talladega Cup stats

	T. Stewart	R. Newman
Races	20	14
Wins	1	0
Top-fives	9	3
Top-10s	12	6
Avg. Start	16.8	14.1
Avg. Finish	13.3	19.6
DNFs	4	4

David Caraviello: No question Tony has been very good there for a long time, and should have more wins to show for it (though some would claim he hasn't won there yet). Tony also knows how to manage that draft, often staying near the back and out of trouble until money time.

Dave Rodman: Now mentioning Ricky Rudd brings back a pleasant blast from the past. But to stay on topic, I'd say that if you take into consideration just how crazy Talladega is, with the progression Stewart has been exercising lately, and his competitive history at both Talladega and Daytona, I'd say this is the most likely spot yet for a Stewart-Haas score.

David Caraviello: He's going to get one somewhere, and soon. There are just so many unknowns at Talladega, though. Some back marker rides the draft to the front, makes an ill-advised move, and it's all over.

Joe Menzer: For the record, I thought NASCAR made the right call on the Regan Smith deal last year. I have said so and will continue to say so. And I will go on record right now as saying I think Tony will finish ahead of young Regan again this week.

David Caraviello: Yes Joe, I think Regan will miss that Earnhardt power, which is always good on restrictor-plate tracks.

Dave Rodman: I'll tell you what would be some stuff, is if Ryan Newman gives Stewart-Haas its first victory. It could happen, very easily.

David Caraviello: Doesn't Ryan merely tolerate Talladega? Hasn't he bashed the place in the past? I want to think he's been in more than his share of Big Ones there, and they've left a sour taste in his mouth.

Joe Menzer: Poor Regan Smith, by the way. Wins rookie of the year and then has to struggle to find a quality full-time ride. I mean, who doesn't love the guys at Furniture Row Racing, but you're limited in what you can accomplish with them.

Dave Rodman: But with Furniture Row, he has Hendrick power, and if you haven't noticed, that team has performed a million miles out of the box. A part-time operation is not supposed to contend the way they've contended in every race they've come to, and at Phoenix their pit crew badly let Regan down. But as we all know, they're in good company on that score, this season.

Last-lap dash

The last race at Talladega saw Tony Stewart win in a controversial finish. What does this spring's race hold in store?

• Video: Talladega preview
• By the Numbers: 'Dega
• Power Rankings: 'Dega
• Video: Talladega track facts
• Menzer: Is Smoke next to win?

Joe Menzer: Of course, if I think back on it, didn't they win the pole last year at one of the 'Dega races with Front Row Joe Nemechek behind the wheel for them?

David Caraviello: I will agree with Dave, the Furniture Row team has improved. Not to the point where they can seriously contend, but they are clearly better than they were last year. Still, that's not the kind of place a reigning rookie of the year figures he's going to wind up.

Joe Menzer: Getting back to Tony and his new team, I think even Mr. Stewart is floored by how well they've gotten out of the gate. He said the other day that he believes this is the best start of his Cup career, and that's saying something. The wins can't be far behind -- and, yes, I mean plural.

Dave Rodman: And to backtrack, Newman showed he could manage the draft pretty effectively to win at Daytona. If patience rules, who knows what will happen. It seems to me their pit crews have been pretty consistently solid. I know Tony's praise has flowed on that subject. And the reason I mention Newman beating Stewart was so that we could see the latest chapter in "Tony the team owner," which has created a more consistently balanced Tony in public while not lessening his effectiveness behind the wheel one bit.

David Caraviello: No question about that. Talk about another team benefitting from Hendrick engines, as Dave mentioned earlier. They're done everything right to this point, and Tony has juggled his dual roles admirably. He's been able to do what a lot of people can't -- delegate.

Joe Menzer: Whatever "assistance" Hendrick is now giving Stewart-Haas ought to be the same kind of "assistance" that Roush Fenway ultimately starts giving to Yates Racing -- and perhaps that No. 26 team if they have to be cut from the main organization. And I think that may be what you start to see. But of course, the difference there is that at Yates, they don't currently have the driver star power to attract the same kind of sponsorship money that the boys at Stewart-Haas do.

David Caraviello: Now Joe, that is quite a segue. Go get those choppers shined up. Talladega awaits!

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.