Smack: Kyle's quest for 200 victories his own way (cont'd)

3. Ten races into the season, who's your biggest surprise and disappointment?

David Caraviello: Oh, I hate to pile on here. We all know who our biggest disappointment is going to be. There's really no need to say it. My biggest surprise, though, is Rodman proving that a moving vehicle is no obstacle to him doing Track Smack!

Joe Menzer: Biggest surprise: Tony Stewart's immediate success. Even though he hasn't won a race yet, he will soon. Biggest disappointment: Dale Earnhardt Jr. Sorry, Junior Nation.

Dave Rodman: Name names, son -- you know how I don't like to guess...

Surprises in '09

Tony Stewart

Wins	0
2-5	4
6-10	3
11-15	0
16-20	1
21-30	2
31-43	0

Kurt Busch

Wins	1
2-5	2
6-10	3
11-15	2
16-20	1
21-30	1
31-43	0

• Store: Stewart | Busch

David Caraviello: OK, OK, OK. It's Junior. We all keep waiting for it to click. We all keep hoping for it to click. But it's not clicking. And I would quibble with Joe's Stewart choice. Yes, his team situation is different, but nobody doubted Tony's talent. I think what David Reutimann and Juan Montoya have done this year is little more unexpected.

Joe Menzer: Dang. Why do you keep doing this to me? I don't mean to beat a dead horse, because my inbox already is full with outraged Junior Nation fans who think I have it in for him, but he's 34 and will be 35 years old before this season is over. I wrote this the other day in a column: this isn't his year. It may never be his year. He is what he is -- a good, but not great driver who wins once in a great while.

Dave Rodman: You know what, I think I'll give the "surprise" nod to Tony and his Stewart-Haas ensemble, but only by a narrow margin over Penske Racing and its leader, Kurt Busch. On the disappointing side, to this point, maybe Earnhardt-Ganassi. Having to close one team, while understandable in the face of no sponsorship, is somewhat devastating on a few fronts, and Martin Truex Jr. has had disappointing luck, if that can be a truism.

Joe Menzer: Good point on Kurt Busch. I will give you guys that. He would be my second choice behind Stewart, only because I expected Stewart to struggle the first part of the season before getting his new act together. I thought Kurt would perform better this year than last.

Dave Rodman: Since it's been years since Junior really sparkled, it's hard to say you're disappointed when the stumbling continues. But make no mistake, I really feel like Junior has more on the ball than the haters give him credit for. But he'd have to get back to a six-win season before 10th-15th in the standings would be a disappointment.

Joe Menzer: Junior has won one race in the last two-plus seasons, and four in the last four-plus seasons. If it didn't click for him to a new level last year during his first season at Hendrick, it's not likely to. He is what he is: a nice and highly marketable guy who is a good, but not great driver.

David Caraviello: And Dave, speaking of EGR, Montoya is on the brink of Chase contention. That's one bright spot for that organization -- and evidence of what they might be capable of.

Dave Rodman: But David, I seriously think that, with Aric Almirola's potential, the seeming benefits of the merger, Little Martin's proven ability and of course Montoya's continued development and oozing talent, that it would not be unreasonable to expect all three of their cars to be in the top 20.

David Caraviello: Well, I think Montoya is better than people give him credit for on plate tracks and big intermediate ovals. I would not be surprised if he won an oval race this year. I don't know if you could say that last season.

Dave Rodman: Well, he's not a dog at the short tracks, either. It's getting to the point where he could challenge to win. And if EGR's common car project continues to bear fruit, they'll be on the rise. Richmond was a heartbreak for Truex, who for the third or fourth consecutive race was riding a rocket that once again got burnt down by someone else's problem.

Disappointments in '09

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Wins	0
2-5	1
6-10	2
11-15	2
16-20	1
21-30	2
31-43	2

David Ragan

Wins	0
2-5	0
6-10	1
11-15	1
16-20	2
21-30	4
31-43	2

• Store: Dale Jr. | Ragan

Joe Menzer: I would contend that Montoya is getting real close to being a real threat to win races and move into the Chase. Then again, I've thought that for a while and it's getting to be time for him to move to that level soon or be considered a disappointment himself. I just wonder what he could do in, let's say, some Hendrick equipment. While we're listing multiple surprises, let's add a couple of runner-up disappointments, too. I think David Ragan has been a major disappointment thus far. Remember, both he and Jack Roush stated that they would consider this season pretty much a failure if they didn't start winning races. I know he won the Nationwide race at 'Dega, but in Cup he now sits 26th in points.

David Caraviello: And the rookies haven't exactly lit it up, either. Obviously, Scott Speed and Joey Logano face some steep learning curves. But they still have a ways to go.

Joe Menzer: Logano has struggled more than I thought he would. I thought there would be a learning curve, and I still think that's all he's going through in the new Cup car, but I didn't think he would be sitting 32nd in points after 10 races. Oh, and another disappointment has been Jamie McMurray. Despite his strong seventh-place finish at Richmond last Saturday, he's 25th in points. This was supposed to be his break-out season.

David Caraviello: Yeah it's been feast or famine for those Roush guys. Even Matt Kenseth, who looked unbeatable early in the season, has cooled considerably.

Joe Menzer: You can't really include Matt in this, because he won the first two races, including the Daytona 500. But overall, hasn't the whole Roush Fenway group been a disappointment? Who would have thought Carl Edwards wouldn't have won a race by now?

David Caraviello: Joe, you're loading up on the disappointments today, my man.

Joe Menzer: Well, the sky is gray here in Charlotte today. Sorry.

David Caraviello: Though we are brightened by the thought of Rodman, evidently driving with his knees as he pulls off the world's first mobile Track Smack. That deserves some kind of special consideration. Hey Dave, watch out for that truck! Dave? Dave?