Smack: Kyle's quest for 200 victories his own way

1. Kyle Busch won his 49th and 50th NASCAR national-division races last weekend in Richmond. He says he wants 200. Odds of him getting there?

David Caraviello: Pretty good, I'd say, given that he just turned 24 and he's reached 50 race wins in what, less than six full seasons? Of course, the more he succeeds on the Cup level, the less likely he may be to continue this breakneck multi-series pace.

Joe Menzer: Considering he just turned 24 -- celebrating in style by winning the Cup race on his birthday -- I think his chances of reaching that magical number are pretty good. Plus, you have to remember that the guy loves to race so much, at least at this point in his career, that he's willing to do double- and triple-headers every weekend his schedule permits. That increases the odds in his favor.

Dave Rodman: I'd say he has a 90 percent chance of doing it. In the line of work he's in, there are a lot of bad things that can happen to people. But the fact is, even though he acknowledged last weekend that it's inevitable that guys slow down -- it's my take he'll win at a prodigious rate for at least the next three years.

Joe Menzer: He might win at a prodigious rate for the next 10 years.

David Caraviello: I don't know if Kyle's talent will ever slow down, but his lifestyle might. Right now he's young and single, and racing is his world. In 10 years he could be married and have a child, and his priorities might change. Those are the kinds of things that may determine whether his pursuit of 200 is a realistic one. And also, once you start winning multiple championships -- which everyone agrees Kyle has the potential to do -- do you still want to be in the car all the time? Seriously, spending an off weekend in Fiji might seem more luxurious than one in Nashville.

Dave Rodman: Very true. And here's the thing, owners and sponsors, I'd have to think, would be clamoring to have Shrub drive their stuff. Like right now, every time he suits up he's a potential winner. He has no weak tracks, having already won on every variety -- multiple times. The biggest thing working in his favor is the great number of combination races. That isn't going to change, since everyone wants to ride the Cup gorilla's back. So while I don't think he'd do another full Nationwide Series schedule once he wins the title, he still has plenty of chances to do races in secondary series.

David Caraviello: Jeff Gordon isn't a perfect comparison, because I don't think he ever had quite the jump-in-anything mentality that Kyle does. But he used to race Busch and IROC quite often. And over time, as he grew older, he gradually cut his schedule back.

Dave Rodman: And look at it this way. I am betting Joe Gibbs Racing will pretty much always have a development project that would benefit from a partial schedule. And given that all three of their primary drivers love racing in Nationwide, I don't see it being an issue. Finding a great truck ride would be the hardest. Billy Ballew and his operation are a real gem in that series. James Finch and Marc Reno's crowd approaches it -- but those two are pretty unique.

150 to go

Kyle Busch won race No. 50 at Richmond and said afterward he would like to win 200 in the three NASCAR national series before he's done.

• Quotes from Richmond
• Rodman: Fans starting to turn
• Audio: Amazing early success
• Video: Busch's in-car audio
• Video: RIR sights, sounds
• Press Pass: Kyle Busch

Joe Menzer: Listen, who's to say Kyle doesn't own his own truck team down the road. Jump in it whenever the mood strikes him, or the sponsors insist upon it?

Dave Rodman: You know, that's interesting. He did almost buy Bill Davis' truck team after last season, and didn't completely close the book on that. And he has proven to be pretty adept already at team ownership, a-la Ken Schrader.

David Caraviello: A driver of Kyle's caliber is never going to have a shortage of rides, whether his own or somebody else's. And as things stand now, no question 200 is a legitimate target. But let's see how his life changes. That's going to make the difference, though it's hard to see him as anything but the hard-charger he is today. Shoot, Tony Stewart still races anything. So does Schrader. I could see Kyle being like one of those guys.

Joe Menzer: And again, the guy is so young. He basically can write his own ticket and do whatever he wants. If the hunger remains after he knocks out his next 50 wins, look out. He will have even more of his own resources to do whatever he thinks it will take to reach the 200 goal.

Dave Rodman: And to close the book on any Gordon comparisons -- per our data, he's only done 11 Busch races since he left that series, and they came in 1999-2000. He has never been a secondary series kind of guy.

David Caraviello: Correct Dave, although I used him more as an example of how priorities can shift. Another question -- would 200 wins across three national series really be a big deal?

Dave Rodman: Shrub is currently tied for 11th on the all-time overall career victories list; but no one around or ahead of him has the potential to advance as much. So yeah, while I think people accepting it might be an issue, I think it's a phenomenal accomplishment. He's an absolute lock to challenge the Silver Fox for second, barring injury.

Joe Menzer: I have to believe that Kyle is one of those guys who will register two or three double-digit -- or at least close to it -- Cup win totals in the next six or eight seasons. He certainly is capable. Maybe the better question is, how many Cup victories do you guys think he can reach in his career? But to answer your question DC2, yes, I think 200 wins across the top three series is a very big deal. Like Roadman says, no one has ever done it or even approached it. And with the dynamics so different now from what they were back in the day, you know no one's ever going to approach Richard Petty's 200 Cup wins. So KB's pursuit of that magic figure over three series would be really kind of neat to watch, I think.

David Caraviello: Kyle is 24, and has 15 career Cup wins. Gotta think he can get into the 70s or 80s at least.

Dave Rodman: Well, from the beginning of this season I've said he'll beat his record of 21 wins from a year ago. So while I think he'll cut his Nationwide schedule if he wins that championship -- at least those Sonoma to Milwaukee jaunts, he'll be a machine for the near future -- and maybe even out over the horizon.

Joe Menzer: I mean, he had eight Cup wins last year and you felt like maybe he could have gotten more. If I had to venture a guess, I'd bet he'll end up in the 90s. Maybe challenging David Pearson's 105, but probably coming up short -- much like Jeff Gordon is probably going to ultimately do.

David Caraviello: But can he Track Smack while driving, like Dave Rodman? THAT is the sign of a true champion! (Continued)