Smack: Kyle's quest for 200 victories his own way

1. Kyle Busch won his 49th and 50th NASCAR national-division races last weekend in Richmond. He says he wants 200. Odds of him getting there?

David Caraviello: Pretty good, I'd say, given that he just turned 24 and he's reached 50 race wins in what, less than six full seasons? Of course, the more he succeeds on the Cup level, the less likely he may be to continue this breakneck multi-series pace.

Joe Menzer: Considering he just turned 24 -- celebrating in style by winning the Cup race on his birthday -- I think his chances of reaching that magical number are pretty good. Plus, you have to remember that the guy loves to race so much, at least at this point in his career, that he's willing to do double- and triple-headers every weekend his schedule permits. That increases the odds in his favor.

Dave Rodman: I'd say he has a 90 percent chance of doing it. In the line of work he's in, there are a lot of bad things that can happen to people. But the fact is, even though he acknowledged last weekend that it's inevitable that guys slow down -- it's my take he'll win at a prodigious rate for at least the next three years.

Joe Menzer: He might win at a prodigious rate for the next 10 years.

David Caraviello: I don't know if Kyle's talent will ever slow down, but his lifestyle might. Right now he's young and single, and racing is his world. In 10 years he could be married and have a child, and his priorities might change. Those are the kinds of things that may determine whether his pursuit of 200 is a realistic one. And also, once you start winning multiple championships -- which everyone agrees Kyle has the potential to do -- do you still want to be in the car all the time? Seriously, spending an off weekend in Fiji might seem more luxurious than one in Nashville.

Dave Rodman: Very true. And here's the thing, owners and sponsors, I'd have to think, would be clamoring to have Shrub drive their stuff. Like right now, every time he suits up he's a potential winner. He has no weak tracks, having already won on every variety -- multiple times. The biggest thing working in his favor is the great number of combination races. That isn't going to change, since everyone wants to ride the Cup gorilla's back. So while I don't think he'd do another full Nationwide Series schedule once he wins the title, he still has plenty of chances to do races in secondary series.

David Caraviello: Jeff Gordon isn't a perfect comparison, because I don't think he ever had quite the jump-in-anything mentality that Kyle does. But he used to race Busch and IROC quite often. And over time, as he grew older, he gradually cut his schedule back.

Dave Rodman: And look at it this way. I am betting Joe Gibbs Racing will pretty much always have a development project that would benefit from a partial schedule. And given that all three of their primary drivers love racing in Nationwide, I don't see it being an issue. Finding a great truck ride would be the hardest. Billy Ballew and his operation are a real gem in that series. James Finch and Marc Reno's crowd approaches it -- but those two are pretty unique.

150 to go

Kyle Busch won race No. 50 at Richmond and said afterward he would like to win 200 in the three NASCAR national series before he's done.

• Quotes from Richmond
• Rodman: Fans starting to turn
• Audio: Amazing early success
• Video: Busch's in-car audio
• Video: RIR sights, sounds
• Press Pass: Kyle Busch

Joe Menzer: Listen, who's to say Kyle doesn't own his own truck team down the road. Jump in it whenever the mood strikes him, or the sponsors insist upon it?

Dave Rodman: You know, that's interesting. He did almost buy Bill Davis' truck team after last season, and didn't completely close the book on that. And he has proven to be pretty adept already at team ownership, a-la Ken Schrader.

David Caraviello: A driver of Kyle's caliber is never going to have a shortage of rides, whether his own or somebody else's. And as things stand now, no question 200 is a legitimate target. But let's see how his life changes. That's going to make the difference, though it's hard to see him as anything but the hard-charger he is today. Shoot, Tony Stewart still races anything. So does Schrader. I could see Kyle being like one of those guys.

Joe Menzer: And again, the guy is so young. He basically can write his own ticket and do whatever he wants. If the hunger remains after he knocks out his next 50 wins, look out. He will have even more of his own resources to do whatever he thinks it will take to reach the 200 goal.

Dave Rodman: And to close the book on any Gordon comparisons -- per our data, he's only done 11 Busch races since he left that series, and they came in 1999-2000. He has never been a secondary series kind of guy.

David Caraviello: Correct Dave, although I used him more as an example of how priorities can shift. Another question -- would 200 wins across three national series really be a big deal?

Dave Rodman: Shrub is currently tied for 11th on the all-time overall career victories list; but no one around or ahead of him has the potential to advance as much. So yeah, while I think people accepting it might be an issue, I think it's a phenomenal accomplishment. He's an absolute lock to challenge the Silver Fox for second, barring injury.

Joe Menzer: I have to believe that Kyle is one of those guys who will register two or three double-digit -- or at least close to it -- Cup win totals in the next six or eight seasons. He certainly is capable. Maybe the better question is, how many Cup victories do you guys think he can reach in his career? But to answer your question DC2, yes, I think 200 wins across the top three series is a very big deal. Like Roadman says, no one has ever done it or even approached it. And with the dynamics so different now from what they were back in the day, you know no one's ever going to approach Richard Petty's 200 Cup wins. So KB's pursuit of that magic figure over three series would be really kind of neat to watch, I think.

David Caraviello: Kyle is 24, and has 15 career Cup wins. Gotta think he can get into the 70s or 80s at least.

Dave Rodman: Well, from the beginning of this season I've said he'll beat his record of 21 wins from a year ago. So while I think he'll cut his Nationwide schedule if he wins that championship -- at least those Sonoma to Milwaukee jaunts, he'll be a machine for the near future -- and maybe even out over the horizon.

Joe Menzer: I mean, he had eight Cup wins last year and you felt like maybe he could have gotten more. If I had to venture a guess, I'd bet he'll end up in the 90s. Maybe challenging David Pearson's 105, but probably coming up short -- much like Jeff Gordon is probably going to ultimately do.

David Caraviello: But can he Track Smack while driving, like Dave Rodman? THAT is the sign of a true champion!

2. Which is more likely to happen: Chrysler pulling Dodge out of NASCAR as part of its bankruptcy restructuring, or Kentucky Speedway getting a Cup race by 2010?

Dave Rodman: You're absolutely killing me, because I don't realistically see either one happening.

David Caraviello: I don't think either is going to happen immediately, but given that the appeal of the lawsuit against NASCAR is still lingering in Kentucky, you've got to go with Chrysler. All the Dodge boys were very positive last weekend that they were going to come out of this OK. But until that happens, we don't really know.

One busy dude

At a news conference to show off the new trophy for the Coca-Cola 600 winner, SMI chairman Bruton Smith laid out details surrounding Kentucky Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway and his Sonic Automotive company.

• Complete story
• Audio: Willing to move his own
• Audio: One obstacle remains

Dave Rodman: You're right, David. Once you get the government involved, all bets are off. I felt like Dodge was committed to NASCAR racing and definitely saw, and could quantify its benefit to their car sales and vehicle development. The neatest thing is the way Dodge has performed on the race track this season, leading the championship and winning races. Now that's proving the punch in the program, and you'd hate to see the plug pulled on that.

David Caraviello: Yes Dave, how ironic all this happens just as Dodge's NASCAR operation is finally finding its way out of the woods. You'd think Chrysler would want to keep it intact. But we're also hearing of looming plant closings and layoffs. If those happen, I don't know how secure that racing program is.

Joe Menzer: Kentucky will get a race in 2010. I am biased -- and maybe more than a little blurred -- by Bruton Smith's latest barrage of words. But he seems very optimistic, confident even, that he will land a race at Kentucky for the 2010 season. Then again, he seemed the same way about getting Kentucky on the '09 Cup schedule the day he announced he was buying the place -- and the good folks from NASCAR just stood around scratching their heads over that one.

David Caraviello: Well, Joe, he has to get that lawsuit appeal dropped first. Until that happens, Kentucky has no hope of getting a Cup date. You'd think since Bruton owns the place now, he could pull some strings there.

Joe Menzer: Bruton, who surely has his reasons for thinking so, seems to believe that it will get dropped. He says that now there are only two people standing in the way of that happening. One of our own in the media jokingly asked the other day if he intended to "break their legs." I believe he smiled back and -- jokingly, of course -- said something to the effect of, "We'd only do the kneecaps." In his own not-so-subtle ways, I'm sure he is applying pressure wherever it can be legally applied.

Dave Rodman: But despite the fact that the future of his race track hinges on it, I think you can say Bruton has no dog in that lawsuit fight. Those Kentucky guys are like petulant, stubborn two-year-olds who got their butts slapped and now they'll show us. If you ask me, the up-front way to prove a point would be to drop your damned frivolous lawsuit, let Bruton switch a race date, and then do everything you can to make it a success and thereby say, "we told you we could..." And move on from there.

David Caraviello: OK Joe, so let's say Bruton does whack some kneecaps and get that appeal dropped. That prompts the age-old question: Where does the race date come from? Is Smith seriously more open to moving one of his own dates?

Joe Menzer: It's easy, folks. It comes from Atlanta. Surely you realize that, don't you?

David Caraviello: Joe, Ed Clark is calling on the white courtesy phone.

Joe Menzer: I think Ed Clark probably knows this is coming. And coming it is, in my humble opinion. And yes, Bruton is open to moving one of his dates. He admitted it Monday when we talked to him. He said he has "more or less" already talked with NASCAR about it. And I found it very interesting that when we were last down in Atlanta, it seemed almost as if they were blowing off promotion of the spring race in favor of their inaugural Labor Day shindig that is coming up.

Dave Rodman: After that debacle two months ago, I'd agree. Again, I've insisted the solution is to continually swap dates around, and you have to test-bed it somewhere. Atlanta has continued to stumble, and if Kentucky got a date and soared with it, that would indicate a possible ongoing SMI in-house date-swap-fest.

David Caraviello: OK, so let's say the lawsuit is dropped. Let's say Bruton is willing to move an Atlanta date. Doesn't Kentucky still have limitations from a seating capacity standpoint? Isn't it still too small?

Dave Rodman: Help me out, my South Carolina buddy -- aren't Darlington and Kentucky at least equivalent, if Kentucky doesn't have an edge in capacity?

Joe Menzer: Well, they supposedly are doing some things up there to improve the place -- as SMI usually does. Plus, haven't we had this argument before that too many of the tracks today are overbuilt. A place like Kentucky, which I believe seats 66,000, may be more in line with what the sport needs for the future. So at 66,000 even if they stood still they're not last in line, so I think that's end of story.

David Caraviello: Actually, Kentucky announced a 50,000-seat expansion project in February. And you are correct, it's already bigger than Darlington. So it would have something in the neighborhood of 118,000 seats after the expansion project.

Joe Menzer: Geez, that's ridiculous! I could see maybe adding 15,000 or 20,000 and seeing how it goes. But 50,000 right off the bat is absolutely stupid.

Dave Rodman: And with what they've been able to do with getting people into their other events, I don't think there's any question the place would be overflowing. Now, getting everyone in and out would be a huge issue, no doubt, but down on the list, at least for the first time.

Joe Menzer: Then again, I point-blank asked Bruton the other day if he thought any of his tracks were overbuilt -- even as they take out seats both at Lowe's Motor Speedway and in Texas -- and he said absolutely not.

Dave Rodman: Joe, you know that's a question a car salesman could always talk his way around.

David Caraviello: Well, Bruton does live in a world separate from the rest of us And evidently, it's recession-proof!

3. Ten races into the season, who's your biggest surprise and disappointment?

David Caraviello: Oh, I hate to pile on here. We all know who our biggest disappointment is going to be. There's really no need to say it. My biggest surprise, though, is Rodman proving that a moving vehicle is no obstacle to him doing Track Smack!

Joe Menzer: Biggest surprise: Tony Stewart's immediate success. Even though he hasn't won a race yet, he will soon. Biggest disappointment: Dale Earnhardt Jr. Sorry, Junior Nation.

Dave Rodman: Name names, son -- you know how I don't like to guess...

Surprises in '09

Tony Stewart

Wins	0
2-5	4
6-10	3
11-15	0
16-20	1
21-30	2
31-43	0

Kurt Busch

Wins	1
2-5	2
6-10	3
11-15	2
16-20	1
21-30	1
31-43	0

• Store: Stewart | Busch

David Caraviello: OK, OK, OK. It's Junior. We all keep waiting for it to click. We all keep hoping for it to click. But it's not clicking. And I would quibble with Joe's Stewart choice. Yes, his team situation is different, but nobody doubted Tony's talent. I think what David Reutimann and Juan Montoya have done this year is little more unexpected.

Joe Menzer: Dang. Why do you keep doing this to me? I don't mean to beat a dead horse, because my inbox already is full with outraged Junior Nation fans who think I have it in for him, but he's 34 and will be 35 years old before this season is over. I wrote this the other day in a column: this isn't his year. It may never be his year. He is what he is -- a good, but not great driver who wins once in a great while.

Dave Rodman: You know what, I think I'll give the "surprise" nod to Tony and his Stewart-Haas ensemble, but only by a narrow margin over Penske Racing and its leader, Kurt Busch. On the disappointing side, to this point, maybe Earnhardt-Ganassi. Having to close one team, while understandable in the face of no sponsorship, is somewhat devastating on a few fronts, and Martin Truex Jr. has had disappointing luck, if that can be a truism.

Joe Menzer: Good point on Kurt Busch. I will give you guys that. He would be my second choice behind Stewart, only because I expected Stewart to struggle the first part of the season before getting his new act together. I thought Kurt would perform better this year than last.

Dave Rodman: Since it's been years since Junior really sparkled, it's hard to say you're disappointed when the stumbling continues. But make no mistake, I really feel like Junior has more on the ball than the haters give him credit for. But he'd have to get back to a six-win season before 10th-15th in the standings would be a disappointment.

Joe Menzer: Junior has won one race in the last two-plus seasons, and four in the last four-plus seasons. If it didn't click for him to a new level last year during his first season at Hendrick, it's not likely to. He is what he is: a nice and highly marketable guy who is a good, but not great driver.

David Caraviello: And Dave, speaking of EGR, Montoya is on the brink of Chase contention. That's one bright spot for that organization -- and evidence of what they might be capable of.

Dave Rodman: But David, I seriously think that, with Aric Almirola's potential, the seeming benefits of the merger, Little Martin's proven ability and of course Montoya's continued development and oozing talent, that it would not be unreasonable to expect all three of their cars to be in the top 20.

David Caraviello: Well, I think Montoya is better than people give him credit for on plate tracks and big intermediate ovals. I would not be surprised if he won an oval race this year. I don't know if you could say that last season.

Dave Rodman: Well, he's not a dog at the short tracks, either. It's getting to the point where he could challenge to win. And if EGR's common car project continues to bear fruit, they'll be on the rise. Richmond was a heartbreak for Truex, who for the third or fourth consecutive race was riding a rocket that once again got burnt down by someone else's problem.

Disappointments in '09

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Wins	0
2-5	1
6-10	2
11-15	2
16-20	1
21-30	2
31-43	2

David Ragan

Wins	0
2-5	0
6-10	1
11-15	1
16-20	2
21-30	4
31-43	2

• Store: Dale Jr. | Ragan

Joe Menzer: I would contend that Montoya is getting real close to being a real threat to win races and move into the Chase. Then again, I've thought that for a while and it's getting to be time for him to move to that level soon or be considered a disappointment himself. I just wonder what he could do in, let's say, some Hendrick equipment. While we're listing multiple surprises, let's add a couple of runner-up disappointments, too. I think David Ragan has been a major disappointment thus far. Remember, both he and Jack Roush stated that they would consider this season pretty much a failure if they didn't start winning races. I know he won the Nationwide race at 'Dega, but in Cup he now sits 26th in points.

David Caraviello: And the rookies haven't exactly lit it up, either. Obviously, Scott Speed and Joey Logano face some steep learning curves. But they still have a ways to go.

Joe Menzer: Logano has struggled more than I thought he would. I thought there would be a learning curve, and I still think that's all he's going through in the new Cup car, but I didn't think he would be sitting 32nd in points after 10 races. Oh, and another disappointment has been Jamie McMurray. Despite his strong seventh-place finish at Richmond last Saturday, he's 25th in points. This was supposed to be his break-out season.

David Caraviello: Yeah it's been feast or famine for those Roush guys. Even Matt Kenseth, who looked unbeatable early in the season, has cooled considerably.

Joe Menzer: You can't really include Matt in this, because he won the first two races, including the Daytona 500. But overall, hasn't the whole Roush Fenway group been a disappointment? Who would have thought Carl Edwards wouldn't have won a race by now?

David Caraviello: Joe, you're loading up on the disappointments today, my man.

Joe Menzer: Well, the sky is gray here in Charlotte today. Sorry.

David Caraviello: Though we are brightened by the thought of Rodman, evidently driving with his knees as he pulls off the world's first mobile Track Smack. That deserves some kind of special consideration. Hey Dave, watch out for that truck! Dave? Dave?