Track Smack: Cup's new contender Smoking field (cont'd)

3. Roush Fenway Racing has won 10 times at Michigan, and Carl Edwards certainly knows his way around the place. Is this the weekend Edwards breaks through?

Raygan Swan: He better, or he is going to be in further risk of missing the Chase. But his performance in Pocono is a good sign, and the leap in the point standings will help his momentum. But his crew needs to get it together still on pit road

David Caraviello: Well, Carl hasn't finished worse than seventh there in his last four starts, a span that includes a couple of wins. So yes, if there's any place tailor-made for Edwards to get his first win of the season, it seems to be Michigan.

Joe Menzer: Well, the second-place finish at Pocono not only was his best of the year but also was his third consecutive top-10 finish. So he's obviously not only moving in the right direction, but now it's only a matter of time until he gets to Victory Lane again. What better place for him than Michigan?

David Caraviello: Actually, he's only finished outside the top 10 there once in nine career starts. Add that to the traditional success Jack has enjoyed at the place, and you'd have to label Carl as a favorite.

No place like home

It's always nice to go home and for Jack Roush, that means a trip to Michigan. His cars are dominant there, and Carl Edwards is winner of two of the last four races at MIS.

• By the Numbers: Michigan

Raygan Swan: Michigan is also the site of his first Cup start, and where he broke a 52-race winless streak in 2007. Michigan has a lot of personal history for Carl.

Joe Menzer: I think all the Roush Fenway guys are likely to be good there. They usually are. But has anyone seen or heard from David Ragan or Jamie McMurray lately? Are they still driving? That was another lame attempt at a joke, folks. But seriously, weren't those two supposed to have breakout seasons this year?

Raygan Swan: No kidding. I'm reconsidering my position as president of the David Ragan fan club.

David Caraviello: And I'll be honest, the Ford guys need to start winning some races. With Chevy and Dodge dealing with bankruptcy issues, it's strange the way Ford hasn't been able to get back to Victory Lane since -- when, California? You'd think the one domestic manufacturer not in Chapter 11 would be doing the best. Then again, I guess we're all part owners of Chevy now, so I eagerly await my share of the winnings from Tony's victory last weekend.

Joe Menzer: Raygan, your namesake will be disappointed to hear that you are considering bailing out on him. But David is right. Where has Ford been since the second race of the year?

Raygan Swan: I can't explain the manufacturer situation, but Carl said he feels the competition is getting tougher, more so this season even. Do Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman ring a bell, along with David Reutimann? And I heart David Ragan, truly, but a girl can only hold out for so long, Joe!

David Caraviello: Well, it all sets up for the Ford guys this weekend, with Jack's success there. You have to think of Edwards and Greg Biffle as your top two contenders. Of course, then there's that Kurt Busch guy, who's pretty good there himself.

Joe Menzer: I just remember talking to Ragan (David, not Swan) before the season -- when both he and Jack Roush said it would be a devastating, or something dramatic to that effect, if they did not win some races this year. They haven't even been close, have they?

Raygan Swan: Yeah Juan Montoya is closer to reaching that goal than Ragan. Now he sits 31st in points. I see JPM making the Chase for the first time this year.

Joe Menzer: Yeah, well, I drafted Juan Pablo in our fantasy deal -- so I was all over the JPM bandwagon this year before you, Raygan (as in Swan, not David). But a win by him might now play as well in the red, white and blue state of Michigan this weekend. We'll see.

David Caraviello: It's all relative, gang, but I had to laugh at the subject our Head 2 Head brethren chose this week -- of Kyle Busch and Edwards, which is having the more disappointing season. This involving two guys who are going to make the Chase. Plenty of other places to look to find real disappointment. Michigan Stadium, for one!

Joe Menzer: You said it about Michigan Stadium, David (as in Caraviello), not me! Yet truer words have never been spoken -- or, in this case, written.

David Caraviello: Joe, just don't sneak any chili into my luggage. Not sure how well that will go over with TSA.

Joe Menzer: Sure. But do you want me to loan you my Ohio State golf shirt for the weekend?

David Caraviello: Thanks, Menzer, but I'll pass.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.