Track Smack: Cup's new contender Smoking field

1. He's fresh off his first victory of the season, and he leads the point standings. Is Tony Stewart asserting himself as the favorite for the Sprint Cup title?

Raygan Swan: I believe so, because his best tracks are yet to come. Sonoma, Watkins Glen, the Brickyard -- his consistency at places like that is amazing. I think he will continue to be a favorite.

Joe Menzer: Well, in my mind, until he's mathematically out of it, the favorite to win the Sprint Cup title still has to be three-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson. So I won't label Stewart the favorite, but it sure looks like he'll be in the small, final mix.

David Caraviello: Honestly, Tony is making this look way too easy, isn't he? I will admit, I expected him to have a certain degree of success this year. But not this much, this soon. I'm wondering if it's going to level off, or if he's got things rolling so well over there it won't matter. But I will agree with Joe -- until somebody actually beats Johnson, I'm not going to believe it. He's still the favorite until he's out of it.

Joe Menzer: The thing is, Ryan Newman is better than he's been in a while, too. So you know the entire organization is doing things right, and that Stewart getting to Victory Lane twice in less than a month (counting the All-Star win) is no fluke.

Raygan Swan: Maybe he doesn't seem like the favorite because he doesn't win like eight races in a season like Carl Edwards or Johnson have. In his first Cup title he only won three, and then in 2007 he only won five. But he is consistently in the top five and top 10 every week now.

Joe Menzer: I'm thinking that this time, at the end of the season at the news conference hyping Ford Championship Weekend, there will be three drivers on the podium talking about their chances -- Stewart, Johnson ... and Jeff Gordon.

David Caraviello: You know, this is quite a follow-the-leader sport, and I wouldn't be surprised if Tony's success inspires a whole new generation of owner/drivers. Of course, they won't all have the advantage of Hendrick equipment, and inheriting a team that already has the basics in place. But if he's making it work, you know others are going to be thinking about it.

Joe Menzer: You mean like Jeremy Mayfield?

Raygan Swan: Ouch, Joe. Very ouch.

Joe Menzer: Sorry.

David Caraviello: OK, that may be a stretch. But seriously, people in NASCAR will follow anything that works. For right now, at least, Tony is making this work. You have to think some other drivers are looking at him and thinking, "I could do that."

Joe Menzer: I don't know, David. This is a very unique situation. You had an owner who was sitting in jail, you had a general manager in Joe Custer who had a very creative thought about a driver who just happened to be coming up on the end of his contract ... and then the other part of the equation is that the existing Haas operation already had a working agreement with arguably the best organization in the sport in Hendrick Motorsports. Average Joe Driver isn't going to have all these pieces in place -- ever!

Raygan Swan: Yeah, and there are few active two-time champions out there in the garage who can basically woo quality staffers to take a big risk and come work with them.

A 'special' one

The smile on Tony Stewart's face was unlike any other. Joe Menzer says the Pocono victory was much the same, and more could be expected from Stewart-Haas Racing.

• Complete story, click here
• Why Stewart-Haas can win it
• Stewart conserves fuel to win

David Caraviello: Tony's greatest attribute in this area may be that he's so hands-off, and can let other people carry a lot of the load. A lot of other drivers might try to micromanage everything. Tony seems very good at just delegating and racing, so he's not burdened as so many owner/drivers in the past seem to have been. And the Hendrick thing certainly sets them apart, no question. So what's it going to be like at the end of the year if Joe's scenario plays out, and Rick is trying to beat his own stuff for a title?

Raygan Swan: With one of his old employees, Darian Grubb, no less. But look at Michael Waltrip Racing, for example. After a few seasons, they are just now starting to figure some things out, after hiring and firing and overcoming scandal. It's not easy. The framework has to be in place like it was at Stewart-Haas Racing

Joe Menzer: I will say that MWR has made great strides in three seasons. And let's not forget -- they've won the same number of points races this year as Stewart-Haas!

Raygan Swan: Yeah, Joe, but David Reutimann doesn't have seven top-five finishes.

Joe Menzer: I know. I was joking. But MWR has made positive strides. Reutimann has been pretty solid nonetheless.

David Caraviello: Still, if Tony knocks off Jimmie in Homestead using Hendrick equipment, you've got to wonder what the reaction will be in Rick's shop.

Raygan Swan: Chad Knaus will have six heart attacks. How could he deal with that? The man already works around the clock seven days a week. He might try to clone himself if Tony beats Jimmie.

David Caraviello: I don't know if the world could handle two Chad Knauses!

2. We've seen plenty of empty seats this season in places like Atlanta, California and Dover. How bad might it be this weekend in Michigan, the state hardest-hit by the economic recession?

David Caraviello: If it's anything like Dover, it may not be good. I don't know what the attendance was like in Pocono -- the track is so big, it's hard to get a feel for it on TV -- but Dover was shocking. More empty seats there than I've seen in a long time. And Michigan is struggling worse than that region of the Mid-Atlantic.

Joe Menzer: The thing about Michigan is that it's so big, it can hold a decent crowd by virtually anyone else's standards and still look fairly empty. And while we're talking crowds, we need to mention that at Pocono, the grandstands were pretty packed. I was impressed by that.

Motor City effects

Detroit is struggling. But officials at Michigan remain positive for this weekend's events, which are a short drive from the nation's hardest hit area during the recession.

• Complete story, click here
• Burton: Winning would be big

Raygan Swan: Well, track officials are expecting a decline in attendance, but they aren't putting their heads in the sand like some others tend to do. They aren't letting it affect the show they put on for fans.

David Caraviello: As well they shouldn't, Raygan. But we do have a lot of track presidents these days who are trying to redefine "good crowd." I guess that's understandable, given the situation. I guess 60-70 percent of capacity is now a good crowd. How times have changed.

Joe Menzer: At Pocono, I really thought the crowd was going to be off after driving in -- and hitting no traffic. But the crowd turned out to be impressive, although I guess by past standards the infield was a bit barren.

David Caraviello: Here's the thing -- nobody is wishing ill upon Roger Curtis and the folks at MIS. Everybody is pulling for them, especially in this environment. But they're going to be under the microscope a little, just because of where they are, and how much that region has been hammered economically.

Raygan Swan: Pocono is ideally located to pull in from big markets, right? That's why they always have decent numbers. But I fear the auto towns in Michigan won't feel much like spending hundreds of dollars to make the race this weekend, not with looming plant closings in the region. Too close to home

Joe Menzer: The thing you have to remember, David, is that 60-70 percent of a place that seats 132,000 -- like Michigan -- is still a pretty decent crowd by sporting standards. If my math is correct, 70 percent of that -- plus whatever they get in the infield -- would put Michigan at well over 100,000.

Raygan Swan: True, Joe. If MIS sells what, like 75,000 to 80,000 seats, it will still be the largest sporting event in the state, maybe.

David Caraviello: Joe, you're right. Again, this is all being redefined. NASCAR has historically set the bar so high in terms of attendance, and some of these tracks have so many seats, they're almost setting themselves up to look bad. And Raygan, I think that little football stadium over in Ann Arbor still draws well over 100,000.

Joe Menzer: But the atmosphere there -- and lately, the quality of play -- is nowhere close to what it is down the road in Columbus, Ohio!

David Caraviello: Oh goodness, here we go with this again. Can you tell Joe isn't going to Michigan? With comments like that, he'd never get out of the airport.

Raygan Swan: You took the words right out of my mouth. Soon he'll start talking about Skyline Chili.

Joe Menzer: Hey, I had the guts to wear my Ohio State golf shirt there last year. Actually was surprised to get several positive comments from OSU brethren in attendance! Even though the lady who served me breakfast at the hotel made some snide comment and tried to dump a bowl of hot oatmeal in my lap! Or at least on my shirt.

Raygan Swan: He's a mouthy one, that Joe, but he's been working out and lifting weights so maybe he could hold his own.

David Caraviello: The issue we're talking about here -- and it has nothing to do with overrated chili or college football programs -- isn't unique to MIS. Tracks all over the country are dealing with it. And as I've written before, I don't know if the capacity crowds we saw during the boom years are ever coming back. It's gonna be tough to fill a 180,000-seat venue for a long time to come. Which is why I think we need some contraction in terms of seating capacity at some places.

Joe Menzer: Overrated chili? Them's fightin' words, Caraviello! All I will say further on this subject is that in the Cincinnati area, there are more chili joints than there are McDonald's. And the chili guys have overbuilt less than the NASCAR track operators!

3. Roush Fenway Racing has won 10 times at Michigan, and Carl Edwards certainly knows his way around the place. Is this the weekend Edwards breaks through?

Raygan Swan: He better, or he is going to be in further risk of missing the Chase. But his performance in Pocono is a good sign, and the leap in the point standings will help his momentum. But his crew needs to get it together still on pit road

David Caraviello: Well, Carl hasn't finished worse than seventh there in his last four starts, a span that includes a couple of wins. So yes, if there's any place tailor-made for Edwards to get his first win of the season, it seems to be Michigan.

Joe Menzer: Well, the second-place finish at Pocono not only was his best of the year but also was his third consecutive top-10 finish. So he's obviously not only moving in the right direction, but now it's only a matter of time until he gets to Victory Lane again. What better place for him than Michigan?

David Caraviello: Actually, he's only finished outside the top 10 there once in nine career starts. Add that to the traditional success Jack has enjoyed at the place, and you'd have to label Carl as a favorite.

No place like home

It's always nice to go home and for Jack Roush, that means a trip to Michigan. His cars are dominant there, and Carl Edwards is winner of two of the last four races at MIS.

• By the Numbers: Michigan

Raygan Swan: Michigan is also the site of his first Cup start, and where he broke a 52-race winless streak in 2007. Michigan has a lot of personal history for Carl.

Joe Menzer: I think all the Roush Fenway guys are likely to be good there. They usually are. But has anyone seen or heard from David Ragan or Jamie McMurray lately? Are they still driving? That was another lame attempt at a joke, folks. But seriously, weren't those two supposed to have breakout seasons this year?

Raygan Swan: No kidding. I'm reconsidering my position as president of the David Ragan fan club.

David Caraviello: And I'll be honest, the Ford guys need to start winning some races. With Chevy and Dodge dealing with bankruptcy issues, it's strange the way Ford hasn't been able to get back to Victory Lane since -- when, California? You'd think the one domestic manufacturer not in Chapter 11 would be doing the best. Then again, I guess we're all part owners of Chevy now, so I eagerly await my share of the winnings from Tony's victory last weekend.

Joe Menzer: Raygan, your namesake will be disappointed to hear that you are considering bailing out on him. But David is right. Where has Ford been since the second race of the year?

Raygan Swan: I can't explain the manufacturer situation, but Carl said he feels the competition is getting tougher, more so this season even. Do Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman ring a bell, along with David Reutimann? And I heart David Ragan, truly, but a girl can only hold out for so long, Joe!

David Caraviello: Well, it all sets up for the Ford guys this weekend, with Jack's success there. You have to think of Edwards and Greg Biffle as your top two contenders. Of course, then there's that Kurt Busch guy, who's pretty good there himself.

Joe Menzer: I just remember talking to Ragan (David, not Swan) before the season -- when both he and Jack Roush said it would be a devastating, or something dramatic to that effect, if they did not win some races this year. They haven't even been close, have they?

Raygan Swan: Yeah Juan Montoya is closer to reaching that goal than Ragan. Now he sits 31st in points. I see JPM making the Chase for the first time this year.

Joe Menzer: Yeah, well, I drafted Juan Pablo in our fantasy deal -- so I was all over the JPM bandwagon this year before you, Raygan (as in Swan, not David). But a win by him might now play as well in the red, white and blue state of Michigan this weekend. We'll see.

David Caraviello: It's all relative, gang, but I had to laugh at the subject our Head 2 Head brethren chose this week -- of Kyle Busch and Edwards, which is having the more disappointing season. This involving two guys who are going to make the Chase. Plenty of other places to look to find real disappointment. Michigan Stadium, for one!

Joe Menzer: You said it about Michigan Stadium, David (as in Caraviello), not me! Yet truer words have never been spoken -- or, in this case, written.

David Caraviello: Joe, just don't sneak any chili into my luggage. Not sure how well that will go over with TSA.

Joe Menzer: Sure. But do you want me to loan you my Ohio State golf shirt for the weekend?

David Caraviello: Thanks, Menzer, but I'll pass.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.