1. Ten races to go 'til the Chase. Who gets in? Who misses out?

Joe Menzer: I think Juan Montoya sneaks in. The dude is actually points racing these days, which seems to go against the very fiber of his being. I'm not sure how I feel about that [actually, I know ... I'm against it]. But it may get him in.

Raygan Swan: Well, beyond the obvious drivers who make it, if Clint Bowyer can get his act together I see him possibly making a comeback to beat out Kasey Kahne. And I really believe Montoya will make it in this year with another strong finish at the Brickyard.

David Caraviello: I think the 12 we have now are basically the 12 that are going to get in. This current group has easily been the most consistent. Given the relatively narrow point gaps between Montoya at 12 and Kahne and David Reutimann at 13 and 14, respectively, maybe there's one change. But that's it. Drama over.

Raygan Swan: I don't see Kahne making it, not with all the Dodge drama. Montoya will hold on to his spot

David Caraviello: As much as everybody likes Jeff Burton, and as much potential as Bowyer showed earlier in the season, I just haven't seen enough sustained performance from any of the RCR cars to think they're going to get in. And what a shock that would be after two years with three guys in.

Joe Menzer: Hard to believe Burton has slid as much as he has. But I remember talking to him in Charlotte. He was confident then that maybe RCR had found something that was going to help turn it around. That turned out not to be the case. And I think you're right, David. There will be the usual little bit of drama heading into the final race at Richmond, but it's going to be for maybe that 11 and/or 12th spot. I wonder, though, if Matt Kenseth might not be in a little trouble.

Raygan Swan: Maybe I shouldn't count out Kahne. He does have three wins and top-fives at seven of the next 10 tracks. And Joe, Bowyer has been testing the cars in all his free time lately trying to get things turned around.

David Caraviello: There are 43 points between Kenseth in 10th and Kahne in 13th. No, that's not a lot. But Matt's been in there all year. He's dipped and rallied, but he's hung in there. The guy I wonder about is Kyle Busch in ninth. He's still going to make it, of course, but they've had a few bad weeks.

Raygan Swan: What is sad, though, is that Kyle will be seeded way higher in the Chase than Tony Stewart because of the bonus points from race wins. Stewart will go from like the points leader to maybe fifth and Kyle will be the leader, if the Chase started today.

Joe Menzer: Well, the thing about Kyle Busch there is that Kyle isn't done winning races, I wouldn't think. As for Bowyer, testing? I thought that was outlawed!

David Caraviello: Only at sanctioned tracks, my man Menzer. I believe the RCR boys are out at Pikes Peak this week. And Raygan, we still have 10 weeks for Stewart to close that gap. Even if he doesn't, we learned last year how quickly a 20- or 30-point pad in bonus points can evaporate.

Joe Menzer: The Bowyer testing deal brings up a good point. Is all the testing these guys are doing at non-sanctioned tracks doing them much good? As for your other point, Raygs, Tony has to start winning more races -- instead of finishing second so much!

Raygan Swan: Seriously, he has finished second how many times? Eight or 10?

“

I think [Montoya] is settling into his position and not being the hothead out to prove something to the other veteran drivers. He is maturing. Reminds me of Stewart a bit.

”

RAYGAN SWAN

David Caraviello: I know Kahne is only three points out right now, but Raygan is right, that Dodge situation makes everyone nervous. And Reutimann, 40 points out in 14th, would be a great, great story. But I just don't know if they can sustain it over 10 more races to get in.

Joe Menzer: There are two points being made in this conversation that I think we would have found hard to believe at the beginning of the season: 1) Tony has been so good that now we're getting on him for all his second-place finishes; and 2) Montoya is actually points racing! How do you guys feel about Montoya openly admitting that he would take the points over a win last Sunday at Sonoma -- and then backing it up by actually backing out of a couple sticky situations at the end, and taking sixth instead of possibly second or third, or even maybe having an outside shot at the win?

David Caraviello: That's the system, guys. Yeah, bonus points are important, and everyone wants them. But getting into the Chase is more important. This is the time of year when guys in contention start to get real careful. Either they can win, or they can't, and they get conservative. That's how this system works.

Joe Menzer: I understand how the Chase breeds points racing, but when Montoya took a couple verbal shots afterward at Marcos Ambrose for being too aggressive, I thought that was wrong. Ambrose drove a great race, and tried like heck to get up front at the end.

Raygan Swan: Well Joe, since I'm play-it-safe Sally over here, I don't mind what Montoya said. His goal was to make the Chase two seasons ago. Chase or bust, car owner Chip Ganassi said. So I don't fault him, but it was a surprise to see him play it safe at a track he had won on before. I think he is settling into his position and not being the hothead out to prove something to the other veteran drivers. He is maturing. Reminds me of Stewart a bit.

David Caraviello: How things change when you suddenly have a championship to worry about.

Raygan Swan: Yep, when you have something to lose. (Continued)