1. Ten races to go 'til the Chase. Who gets in? Who misses out?

Joe Menzer: I think Juan Montoya sneaks in. The dude is actually points racing these days, which seems to go against the very fiber of his being. I'm not sure how I feel about that [actually, I know ... I'm against it]. But it may get him in.

Raygan Swan: Well, beyond the obvious drivers who make it, if Clint Bowyer can get his act together I see him possibly making a comeback to beat out Kasey Kahne. And I really believe Montoya will make it in this year with another strong finish at the Brickyard.

David Caraviello: I think the 12 we have now are basically the 12 that are going to get in. This current group has easily been the most consistent. Given the relatively narrow point gaps between Montoya at 12 and Kahne and David Reutimann at 13 and 14, respectively, maybe there's one change. But that's it. Drama over.

Raygan Swan: I don't see Kahne making it, not with all the Dodge drama. Montoya will hold on to his spot

David Caraviello: As much as everybody likes Jeff Burton, and as much potential as Bowyer showed earlier in the season, I just haven't seen enough sustained performance from any of the RCR cars to think they're going to get in. And what a shock that would be after two years with three guys in.

Joe Menzer: Hard to believe Burton has slid as much as he has. But I remember talking to him in Charlotte. He was confident then that maybe RCR had found something that was going to help turn it around. That turned out not to be the case. And I think you're right, David. There will be the usual little bit of drama heading into the final race at Richmond, but it's going to be for maybe that 11 and/or 12th spot. I wonder, though, if Matt Kenseth might not be in a little trouble.

Raygan Swan: Maybe I shouldn't count out Kahne. He does have three wins and top-fives at seven of the next 10 tracks. And Joe, Bowyer has been testing the cars in all his free time lately trying to get things turned around.

David Caraviello: There are 43 points between Kenseth in 10th and Kahne in 13th. No, that's not a lot. But Matt's been in there all year. He's dipped and rallied, but he's hung in there. The guy I wonder about is Kyle Busch in ninth. He's still going to make it, of course, but they've had a few bad weeks.

Raygan Swan: What is sad, though, is that Kyle will be seeded way higher in the Chase than Tony Stewart because of the bonus points from race wins. Stewart will go from like the points leader to maybe fifth and Kyle will be the leader, if the Chase started today.

Joe Menzer: Well, the thing about Kyle Busch there is that Kyle isn't done winning races, I wouldn't think. As for Bowyer, testing? I thought that was outlawed!

David Caraviello: Only at sanctioned tracks, my man Menzer. I believe the RCR boys are out at Pikes Peak this week. And Raygan, we still have 10 weeks for Stewart to close that gap. Even if he doesn't, we learned last year how quickly a 20- or 30-point pad in bonus points can evaporate.

Joe Menzer: The Bowyer testing deal brings up a good point. Is all the testing these guys are doing at non-sanctioned tracks doing them much good? As for your other point, Raygs, Tony has to start winning more races -- instead of finishing second so much!

Raygan Swan: Seriously, he has finished second how many times? Eight or 10?

“

I think [Montoya] is settling into his position and not being the hothead out to prove something to the other veteran drivers. He is maturing. Reminds me of Stewart a bit.

”

RAYGAN SWAN

David Caraviello: I know Kahne is only three points out right now, but Raygan is right, that Dodge situation makes everyone nervous. And Reutimann, 40 points out in 14th, would be a great, great story. But I just don't know if they can sustain it over 10 more races to get in.

Joe Menzer: There are two points being made in this conversation that I think we would have found hard to believe at the beginning of the season: 1) Tony has been so good that now we're getting on him for all his second-place finishes; and 2) Montoya is actually points racing! How do you guys feel about Montoya openly admitting that he would take the points over a win last Sunday at Sonoma -- and then backing it up by actually backing out of a couple sticky situations at the end, and taking sixth instead of possibly second or third, or even maybe having an outside shot at the win?

David Caraviello: That's the system, guys. Yeah, bonus points are important, and everyone wants them. But getting into the Chase is more important. This is the time of year when guys in contention start to get real careful. Either they can win, or they can't, and they get conservative. That's how this system works.

Joe Menzer: I understand how the Chase breeds points racing, but when Montoya took a couple verbal shots afterward at Marcos Ambrose for being too aggressive, I thought that was wrong. Ambrose drove a great race, and tried like heck to get up front at the end.

Raygan Swan: Well Joe, since I'm play-it-safe Sally over here, I don't mind what Montoya said. His goal was to make the Chase two seasons ago. Chase or bust, car owner Chip Ganassi said. So I don't fault him, but it was a surprise to see him play it safe at a track he had won on before. I think he is settling into his position and not being the hothead out to prove something to the other veteran drivers. He is maturing. Reminds me of Stewart a bit.

David Caraviello: How things change when you suddenly have a championship to worry about.

Raygan Swan: Yep, when you have something to lose.

2. Richard Petty says "all options" are open as to what manufacturer Richard Petty Motorsports will partner with for 2010 and beyond. If you're the King, do you leave Dodge?

Joe Menzer: Listen, the King has been more loyal to Dodge than anyone. But if they're not sending him checks that they promised and he's counting on that money to keep the operation up and running -- not to mention competitive -- the man has to do whatever he's got to do.

Raygan Swan: You know this situation reminds me of all the auto workers in Kokomo, Ind., waiting to be called back to the transmission plants. Do I wait, or go take a job somewhere else in town? If you have a family to feed or in Petty's case a team to run, you can't afford to wait for Chrysler and Dodge to heal.

David Caraviello: I'm not sure yet. How much of the issues we've seen at RPM have to do with Dodge, and how many of them have to do with RPM? I mean, if Dodge is withholding support, how come we don't see Penske in the same situation? I'm not sure if it's the manufacturer, or the way the team is using what it gets from the manufacturer.

Looking, listening

Richard Petty Motorsports will explore "all options" as to what type of car manufacturer the NASCAR organization will partner with in the future.

• Complete story, click here
• Sound Off: Petty addresses

Raygan Swan: That was my next question David, why isn't Penske struggling as well? I think maybe RPM bit off more than it could chew taking on four teams.

Joe Menzer: I'll tell you why we don't see the same problems at Penske. They've got more money and far more resources. They don't rely on the Dodge money nearly as much as RPM does. I think it's that simple.

David Caraviello: But that said, RPM is completely within their rights to move on and seek help somewhere else after their current contract expires. But where do they go? Can GM or Ford afford to add another team? Would Toyota, which has a decent-sized stable as it is, even want them?

Raygan Swan: I think Toyota is interested. What about the Braun Racing arrangement with Kahne and Elliott Sadler. Aren't they running some Nationwide races in Toyota machines? And Joe, Penske and RPM both have beer money.

Joe Menzer: Don't kid yourself. They may not be talking yet. But Toyota would have a great interest, I would think, in working something with RPM if the Dodge deal falls through. But if I'm Dodge, despite their troubles, I try to take care of the King.

David Caraviello: So Joe, you think it's an allocation issue at RPM. How they use it. Might be, given, as Raygan pointed out, they're trying to run four cars on stretched-thin sponsorship. Yes, they have beer money, but beer money is about all they have.

Joe Menzer: What I'm saying about Penske is that the guy over there is running a freakin' automobile empire -- like Hendrick. Those guys can move money from one resource to another as needed to stay competitive. RPM does not have that luxury. I mean, for goodness sakes, Penske just bought Saturn, right? And for anyone who has ever been to his "dealership" in Scottsdale, Ariz., you know this guy is dealing on a different level.

David Caraviello: What? It doesn't look like the original Petty shop in Level Cross?

Joe Menzer: I put "dealership" in quotes in my previous remark because it was unbelievable. It was like 10 dealerships in one -- and all high-end stuff like Volvo, BMW, Mercedes, Mini Cooper, Land Rovers ... even a few Ferraris and Maseratis, etc., if I recall correctly. Plus, you have to look at the stability factor. RPM essentially is just getting its sea legs. It's neither the former Petty Enterprises when that organization was a force, nor is it completely the former Evernham Motorsports. It's essentially a new operation.

Raygan Swan: I tend to agree with Joe a bit on the management of RPM. I feel they lack leadership and true direction

David Caraviello: Raygan, who is calling the shots at RPM these days? Tom Reddin, the former CEO, is gone. Is it Robbie Loomis? Is it Mark McArdle? Is it Foster Gillett? Is it George Gillett? My guess would be George, but he has quite a number of other things on his plate as well.

Raygan Swan: It's Ray Evernham, the talking head from the booth!

David Caraviello: Hey, they could do worse.

Joe Menzer: Say whatever you will about Penske, but they have been pretty stable. And their shop is impressive as well. They have all the tools they need, plus, I believe, all the cash they need.

David Caraviello: Joe, when did you become the world's biggest Penske fan? You're usually bashing him for having all those resources and that huge shop and nothing to show for it!

Raygan Swan: I didn't want to say anything ... but Joe, are looking to get a new Saturn out of this or what?

Joe Menzer: Penske should be accomplishing more. But comparing their situation with Dodge to RPM's is like comparing a Hyundai dealership to a Mercedes dealer.

David Caraviello: I need to check the dealership logo on the back of Joe's Grand Caravan.

Joe Menzer: That's the 17-year-old's now. I'm driving the other mini-van -- a Ford Windstar, my friends. You can imagine how proud my son is to be the pilot of a Dodge mini-van with 145,000 miles on it!

Raygan Swan: I've seen it. It's a mean machine, David.

David Caraviello: Is that the one with the squeaky belts? That kid is so going to be the king of his high school!

3. Kurt Busch is defending event champion, but the last eight races at New Hampshire have been won by eight different drivers. Who's the favorite this week at the Magic Mile?

Joe Menzer: What is this, Penske day in Track Smack? But you've got to hand it to Kurt, who has been consistent all year long -- and was absolutely dominant in winning at Atlanta earlier. That bodes well for some of the tracks coming up, including in the Chase.

David Caraviello: All right, I'm taking a stand here -- this will be Ryan Newman's great Stewart-Haas coming-out party. He's good on flat tracks, he's won there before, and he's going to get that long-sought-after first victory of the season. Ryan is ex-Penske, so does that count?

Raygan Swan: I'm going to say the Stewart-Haas drivers. Newman needs to pull out of his funk. The last two races he has finished outside the top 10. I look for both Hoosiers to finish well, if not win.

David Caraviello: Um, Raygan, you realize both of your Hoosiers can't win, right? I mean, I guess there could be a tie down to the thousandths of a second, but that would be highly unlikely. Seeing two cars in Victory Lane would be cool, though.

Five things about ...

Jerry Gappens could have been the original Jeff Gordon. Instead, he took the promotions route rather than driving.

• Five things ... Jerry Gappens
• NHMS: Cup Series tickets
• NHMS: Nationwide tickets

Raygan Swan: Well I'm picking them both to be safe Sally again.

Joe Menzer: Raygs probably wants 'em to run on Hoosier tires, too! Take the last two winners out of the equation -- Greg Biffle in a Ford last fall and Kurt in his Dodge last June -- and the previous four winners all drove Chevys. That could bode well for the Stewart-Haas guys as well.

David Caraviello: Hey, you know who's usually pretty good at New Hampshire? Jeff Burton. He's won there several times, and boy is he in desperate need of a good week. Could be sort of a last stand for the RCR veteran.

Joe Menzer: I happen to think it's about time for Jimmie Johnson to win again. Or maybe Kyle Busch. As for Burton, he was good at New Hampshire a long time ago -- when he was driving a Ford for Jack Roush. He hasn't won there since 2000, which means nothing much now in my opinion.

Raygan Swan: What about Jeff Gordon? He has only one win this year, but has three wins at NHMS.

David Caraviello: Hey, you know what? I'm actually kind of looking forward to going up to New Hampshire this week. Allegedly they've made all kinds of changes up there, so it will be interesting to see what Bruton Smith and Jerry Gappens have done. I hear there actually may even be room to park in the infield now!

Joe Menzer: Well, they spent a lot of money -- and plowed through lots of environmental red tape, I hear -- to fill in that, um, lake in the infield. It was more like a ditch filled with water, but whatever.

Raygan Swan: David, Jerry mentioned something about a car-eating dinosaur. Not that you care, but look out for elephant ears!

David Caraviello: Ah, the car-eating dinosaur is back! That's always quite a show. Humpy Wheeler first rolled that beast out at Charlotte several years ago. Nice to see that Jerry is carrying on his former boss' legacy.

Joe Menzer: New Hampshire is a very underrated trip. I like staying in Manchester, an underrated town. And you can always zip into Boston for a Red Sox game at Fenway Park! But my team is the Cincinnati Reds, who are underrated.

David Caraviello: Don't know if I can stomach the Red Sox after the way they blatantly stole that game from the Braves last Sunday. That wound will take a while to heal. And Menzer, for what it's worth, Burton has top-10s in five of his last seven starts at NHMS, including a fourth last fall. And those finishes did not come in Jack Roush Fords.

Joe Menzer: But Burton hasn't won at New Hampshire since 2000. In that sense, he's like the Cincinnati Reds -- meaning he'll probably entertain and likely flirt with victory, but leave you disappointed in the end.

David Caraviello: Kind of like this Track Smack!

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.