Another year of discontent; Brickyard fortune-telling (cont'd)

2. Seven times in the past 11 years, the winner at Indianapolis Motor Speedway has gone on to win the Cup championship. What might that bode for our top two points contenders, Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon?

Duane Cross: I'd say whomever wins Sunday has about a 64 percent chance of winning the Cup championship ...

By the Numbers

Thirteen of the 15 race winners at Indy's famed Brickyard are past Cup Series champions.

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David Caraviello: Well, I think there's a great chance that it happens eight times in 12 years, given that your top three points contenders are Stewart, Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, who have eight Brickyard titles between them. Something about this race seems to identify the best, even on bad tires.

Duane Cross: Would it surprise anyone if Stewart or Gordon won on Sunday? I don't think so -- but the same can be said of Jimmie Johnson, and we know his chances of winning the championship is better than most.

Mark Aumann: I'd like to say that's more of a happy coincidence than anything. It's not surprising that the top teams do well at Indy. But why Indy -- which is atypical of the tracks in the Chase -- would have a bearing is odd.

David Caraviello: Why 64 percent? Why not 65? Or 63? Just throwing that number out there, boss?

Duane Cross: Well, seven divided by 11 is 0.63636 ... just rounding up.

David Caraviello: Ahh, now I follow you. Never was good at math. And I don't think it's a coincidence at all. I think it's because the place is a damn hard race track with those flat straightaways and tight corners. I think it's because the teams that win there are the ones that clearly have their act together by midseason. I think Indy is a little like Darlington -- you rarely see flukes win there. It's a difficult track that demands a certain combination of factors that only a select few drivers and teams have.

Duane Cross: Here's a fact: Rusty Wallace never won at Indy between 1994 and 2005. Coincidentally, he also never won the Cup Series title during that time. Bottom line is that teams that are championship contenders can dial it in at any track. They're among the favorites each week and that puts them into championship contention at the end of the year. It would be a much bigger story if Stewart, Gordon and Johnson failed to run well at Indy.

Mark Aumann: And since Stewart, Gordon and Johnson have won the past five races there, and account for seven of the past nine Cup titles, it's hard not to get a crossover. I'd be more impressed if Indy had predicted the championships for guys like Kurt Busch and Matt Kenseth.

David Caraviello: But you go back even further, to guys like Bobby Labonte and Dale Jarrett, who also won there and won the title. And Johnson stunk there for several years until he and Chad Knaus finally figured the place out. I don't think this is coincidence at all.

Duane Cross: It's not, David. Bet the farm on the guys who are at the top of the standings. Their track record -- at Indy as well as at other places -- bodes well for seeing that number jump to eight times in the past 12 years.

Lessons of Brickyard

When Goodyear officials left Indy after last year's race, the vowed to fix the tire problem.

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David Caraviello: Well, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Stewart pull into Victory Lane again on Sunday. He's having the kind of year where everything goes right for him. A Brickyard title as an owner/driver would be a nice touch. And everyone who is anyone says the tire situation there has been resolved, so let's hope the cars can make more than 11 laps this time around. Of course, you wonder how much of that pre-race crowing was an attempt to sell tickets, which Indy had evidently had a tough time doing.

Mark Aumann: Well, I heard NASCAR and IMS sent letters to previous season-ticket holders, trying to sway them into returning. So a lot of reputations are on the line Sunday.

Duane Cross: Even if it's not going to be a sellout, there's still going to be a lot of folks at the track. I'm not going to get caught up in sellouts this year; the economy is taking its toll in all sports. Fans are having a tough time making ends meet. Accept it and move on to other issues that fans are clamoring about. To that point, I'm going to throw out this name -- Kyle Busch. It seems he's never been intimidated by Indy -- the track, the lore, the whatever. Sunday could be a nice springboard for him.

David Caraviello: Duane, I was thinking about Kyle [on Tuesday]. The Gibbs cars are usually very good at Indianapolis. I wouldn't be surprised to see that at all.

Duane Cross: It wouldn't surprise me to see Kyle and Denny Hamlin banging in the waning laps.

• Caraviello: Is honeymoon over?
• Rodman: Indy a tell-tale moment (Continued)