Another year of discontent; Brickyard fortune-telling

1. Kevin Harvick doesn't seem very happy these days at Richard Childress Racing. Odds he's able to get out of his contract one year early?

David Caraviello: Richard Childress does not strike me as the type of team owner who makes a habit of capitulating to drivers' demands. But if Harvick really does want out, there's nothing worse than having a driver who doesn't want to be there. The Gibbs people realized that last year and let Tony Stewart out a year early. Sometimes that's best for all involved.

Mark Aumann: I wound up listening to his radio transmissions for the race at Chicagoland, and that was like a microcosm of his entire season. He started in the middle, worked his way almost into the top 10 despite missing the setup, and then the power steering failed. It just seems like they cannot find the magic bullet that will turn their momentum back in a positive direction. And you could really hear the frustration and dejection in Harvick's voice.

Duane Cross: I believe Richard has addressed this: Kevin -- and his sponsor -- will be in the No. 29 in 2009. The entire RCR stable is having issues this year; it's knee-jerk to think Harvick will be moving on because "garage talk" says he wants out. Kevin knows how this game is played; he's a driver and a team owner. He knows this business from both ends -- and he's also not one to cut bait when the fishing gets slow.

Mark Aumann: I just don't know if Childress can afford to let Harvick go. If he's losing General Motors assistance money (and that may be rumored to be $2 million a car) and Shell-Pennzoil, that's a huge financial hit.

David Caraviello: Well, in the few public comments he's made, Kevin has appeared very coy. If he really doesn't want to be there, how is staying going to be positive for all parties? A full season of a guy playing out the string, just biding his time until he moves on? That's never productive. And Shell-Pennzoil has a contract with RCR, right? Not the driver?

Mark Aumann: I realize it's business, but Kevin's road to Cup wouldn't be as straight and successful without Childress making the decision to bring him up after Dale Earnhardt's death at Daytona in 2001. Whether there's any "employee loyalty" factor, I don't know.

Harvick staying put

Kevin Harvick is under contract with Richard Childress Racing for one more season, and the team expects him to drive the No. 29 in 2010.

RCR released a statement responding to a recent report on SI.com that Harvick wanted out of his deal and was hopeful of moving to Stewart-Haas Racing.

Richard Childress says RCR has a multi-year contract with Harvick and sponsor Shell-Pennzoil. Childress says "Shell will be the sponsor and Kevin will be the driver of RCR's No. 29 Shell-Pennzoil Chevrolet Impala SS in 2010."

-- The Associated Press

Duane Cross: Everyone is associating Harvick as the third car at Stewart-Haas -- but folks, fact is Rick Hendrick may need a place to move Dale Earnhardt Jr. Who's to say Brad Keselowski won't be driving the fourth car at Hendrick in 2009? (And yes, I fully realize the roles most likely would be reversed; Junior's not going anywhere ... yet.)

David Caraviello: Of course, RC has the documents on paper saying both Kevin and the sponsor are sticking around another year. But that hasn't stopped drivers from moving before. If Kevin is committed to that final year, he needs to say it. If he's not, it might be best for everyone involved to part ways.

Mark Aumann: Right now, Stewart is like the "team du jour." I think anybody who can turn left and make the tires squeal a little bit is rumored for that spot. And I don't even know if Tony wants to take on a third team. Has anybody actually asked him? And again, a lot of this is absolute speculation. "What ifs." Somebody gets out the calculator, adds 2 and 2 and somehow that equals 5.

David Caraviello: Yeah, it is a little crazy how everybody in the garage seems to be pining to be part of a third team that doesn't exist and doesn't have sponsorship. I mean, from a sponsorship perspective, do they even have the full season covered on Newman's car? You don't snap fingers and put all this together, as Tony well knows.

Duane Cross: Maybe Rick, Richard and Tony can put together a super team under the Chevy banner. Everyone shares info, and their 12 drivers dominate in 2010, sweeping the Chase! It's a lot easier to speculate this crap on paper than it is to make it happen.

Mark Aumann: But every sport has its rumor mill. Baseball's trading deadline is coming up, and you're hearing Roy Halliday trade rumors. In football, it's the continuing Brett Favre saga. And in most cases, there's about a 10 percent chance of anybody being right.

Duane Cross: It's Halladay, hoss.

Mark Aumann: Halladay Inn? Or would that be Halladay Out?

Duane Cross: Exactly, Mark -- and it's the root of why I loathe "silly season." We're talking about these guys' lives -- their business lives, their driving lives, their personal lives. I certainly don't think anyone wants their job evaluations to be publicized and scrutinized as most of these owners' and drivers' are.

Mark Aumann: Well, I guess that's why the speculation is there. With four wins in his first three seasons, Harvick showed this great potential. But he hasn't won in almost two full seasons, and now people want to guess at the reasons why. And it's got to be more complex than "if he was somewhere else, things would be better."

David Caraviello: And honestly, how much of Kevin's considerable popularity comes from the fact that he succeeded Earnhardt in what was once the No. 3 car? He's big among the purists and hardcore types who once loved the Intimidator. Obviously, his accomplishments as a driver stand on their own. But how much of that cachet does he risk losing if he goes somewhere else?

Duane Cross: Kevin's fan base is solidly his now -- but you're right, many fans followed him because of the Earnhardt connection. Through the years, Harvick has proved he is a top-shelf driver -- and that's why his future is up for public debate. Personally, I hope he stays through 2010, and then if he wants to leave he does so on his own terms.

2. Seven times in the past 11 years, the winner at Indianapolis Motor Speedway has gone on to win the Cup championship. What might that bode for our top two points contenders, Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon?

Duane Cross: I'd say whomever wins Sunday has about a 64 percent chance of winning the Cup championship ...

By the Numbers

Thirteen of the 15 race winners at Indy's famed Brickyard are past Cup Series champions.

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David Caraviello: Well, I think there's a great chance that it happens eight times in 12 years, given that your top three points contenders are Stewart, Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, who have eight Brickyard titles between them. Something about this race seems to identify the best, even on bad tires.

Duane Cross: Would it surprise anyone if Stewart or Gordon won on Sunday? I don't think so -- but the same can be said of Jimmie Johnson, and we know his chances of winning the championship is better than most.

Mark Aumann: I'd like to say that's more of a happy coincidence than anything. It's not surprising that the top teams do well at Indy. But why Indy -- which is atypical of the tracks in the Chase -- would have a bearing is odd.

David Caraviello: Why 64 percent? Why not 65? Or 63? Just throwing that number out there, boss?

Duane Cross: Well, seven divided by 11 is 0.63636 ... just rounding up.

David Caraviello: Ahh, now I follow you. Never was good at math. And I don't think it's a coincidence at all. I think it's because the place is a damn hard race track with those flat straightaways and tight corners. I think it's because the teams that win there are the ones that clearly have their act together by midseason. I think Indy is a little like Darlington -- you rarely see flukes win there. It's a difficult track that demands a certain combination of factors that only a select few drivers and teams have.

Duane Cross: Here's a fact: Rusty Wallace never won at Indy between 1994 and 2005. Coincidentally, he also never won the Cup Series title during that time. Bottom line is that teams that are championship contenders can dial it in at any track. They're among the favorites each week and that puts them into championship contention at the end of the year. It would be a much bigger story if Stewart, Gordon and Johnson failed to run well at Indy.

Mark Aumann: And since Stewart, Gordon and Johnson have won the past five races there, and account for seven of the past nine Cup titles, it's hard not to get a crossover. I'd be more impressed if Indy had predicted the championships for guys like Kurt Busch and Matt Kenseth.

David Caraviello: But you go back even further, to guys like Bobby Labonte and Dale Jarrett, who also won there and won the title. And Johnson stunk there for several years until he and Chad Knaus finally figured the place out. I don't think this is coincidence at all.

Duane Cross: It's not, David. Bet the farm on the guys who are at the top of the standings. Their track record -- at Indy as well as at other places -- bodes well for seeing that number jump to eight times in the past 12 years.

Lessons of Brickyard

When Goodyear officials left Indy after last year's race, the vowed to fix the tire problem.

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David Caraviello: Well, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Stewart pull into Victory Lane again on Sunday. He's having the kind of year where everything goes right for him. A Brickyard title as an owner/driver would be a nice touch. And everyone who is anyone says the tire situation there has been resolved, so let's hope the cars can make more than 11 laps this time around. Of course, you wonder how much of that pre-race crowing was an attempt to sell tickets, which Indy had evidently had a tough time doing.

Mark Aumann: Well, I heard NASCAR and IMS sent letters to previous season-ticket holders, trying to sway them into returning. So a lot of reputations are on the line Sunday.

Duane Cross: Even if it's not going to be a sellout, there's still going to be a lot of folks at the track. I'm not going to get caught up in sellouts this year; the economy is taking its toll in all sports. Fans are having a tough time making ends meet. Accept it and move on to other issues that fans are clamoring about. To that point, I'm going to throw out this name -- Kyle Busch. It seems he's never been intimidated by Indy -- the track, the lore, the whatever. Sunday could be a nice springboard for him.

David Caraviello: Duane, I was thinking about Kyle [on Tuesday]. The Gibbs cars are usually very good at Indianapolis. I wouldn't be surprised to see that at all.

Duane Cross: It wouldn't surprise me to see Kyle and Denny Hamlin banging in the waning laps.

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3. Which is the better race track: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where the Sprint Cup tour races Sunday, or O'Reilly Raceway Park, where the Trucks and Nationwide cars compete on Friday and Saturday, respectively?

Mark Aumann: For stock cars and trucks, ORP/IRP is the hands-down winner. You've got to love a tight bullring, with action all around the track. But there's something amazing about Indianapolis Motor Speedway, even though the racing is not always that great. The place is absolutely dripping with history.

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Duane Cross: For me, depends on what kind of race I'm looking for. Nothing compares to open-wheelers at Indy. The "other" track -- ORP -- should be hailed as one of the best short tracks on earth, but it just hasn't gotten its just due.

David Caraviello: OK, I've been to both, and I'd agree ORP might be the most underrated short track in the country. People love that place. Nothing says "Indy" like watching silver crown or sprint cars go around ORP. But the place is in the middle of a cornfield, and doesn't exactly have the atmosphere and presence of the big track.

Duane Cross: Maybe if the ORP folks put in a midway, or a casino, or had dancing bears -- maybe even something only Humpy Wheeler could conceive -- maybe then it would get some recognition.

David Caraviello: Yeah, that place seems to lurk a little under the radar, except when the NHRA's big show is in town. But I'll tell you, there's something to be said for just the aura the big track has. I know that doesn't help make the racing any more entertaining, but to me it clearly adds to the entire experience.

Duane Cross: Growing up -- and yes, there was a time before the Internet and 24/7 cable sports networks -- Indianapolis was it. Every kid dreamed of racing there. The mystic of the Brickyard stands alone in U.S. motorsports. Everything else is in the argument for second.

Mark Aumann: At most places, the media basically ignores the start of the race. But at the Brickyard, they're shoulder-to-shoulder at the window, watching the field take the green. It's truly a spectacle, unparalleled in the United States. I'd say Monaco and LeMans may rival Indy when it comes to the combination of location and history.

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David Caraviello: Yeah, the place is really the Augusta National of motorsports, worth the price of admission for the experience alone. I know there's a vocal segment of the fan base that hates it because of the racing, but every time I'm there and talk to fans, they seem to love it. I think the lunatic fringe may be smaller sometimes than we give it credit for. I also wonder if either of the Trucks or Nationwide cars need to visit ORP on a weekend other than Brickyard weekend, so they're not completely overshadowed by the events going on at the big speedway. Because it is a fun race track.

Mark Aumann: I wonder how much of the old Thursday Night Thunder broadcasts on ESPN added to the mystique of the place. I know for myself, it was cool to watch Jeff Gordon race midgets and sprint cars in person, having seen the track on TV.

Duane Cross: I wish the national touring series had separate schedules across the board, except for maybe a handful of combo weekends. I know ticket sales are a big part of the deal, but some of these tracks can stand on their own. I think ORP could be one if it wasn't in Indy's shadow.

Mark Aumann: I will say that Clermont's [the Indiana town where ORP is located] not what you'd call a destination location. Still, it's a typical Indiana short track. I've been to Gas City, Anderson, Bloomington and Fort Wayne, and they're all pretty much quite a ways out of town. I love the sound of race cars, but don't think I'd like to live next to the track.

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The opinions expressed are solely those of the participants.