Busch riding Chase bubble; McMurray chasing ride

1. Is Kyle Busch actually going to miss the Chase?

Raygan Swan: I don't think Kyle will actually miss the Chase, but this weekend he returns to Pocono, where neither his luck or performance is really any good. So I'd rather answer this question after Pocono. But if I must answer, Kyle will make the Chase because Kasey Kahne and David Reutimann won't hold up in the next six races. Bold, yes, but that is my thought.

Bill Kimm: No, no, no! Does he want to be in 14th with six races remaining? Of course not. But there is no way Kyle Busch will miss the Chase. Look for six strong finishes from the No. 18 car, and for one of the boys from Roush Fenway Racing to fall out.

David Caraviello: Yes, he's outside the top 12, but it's not time to panic yet. The kid is way too good to think he can't make up the 82 points currently separating him from 12th in the standings. But he also needs some other drivers to go backward, and if his struggles go on for a few more weeks ... well, things are going to get perilous.

Bill Kimm: Thanks for pointing out the obvious, David. More bad finishes means more peril. Busch is too good not to make up the ground. He will be in.

David Caraviello: Well, the Gibbs folks are going through something of a problem stretch right now, with Kyle's performances of late and Denny Hamlin's mechanical failure last week. This is the kind of stuff that knocked them out of the Chase last year. Maybe they're getting it out of the way early this season.

Raygan Swan: Yeah, the talent is there, Bill, but I don't know about Kyle's ability to thrive under pressure. We saw it last season. Kyle does well when everyone is chasing him, not when he is chasing everyone else.

Bill Kimm: Raygs, what happened last year wasn't his fault. His title hopes were gone after two weeks because of fluke mechanical issues.

Raygan Swan: Yes, some of it was not his fault, but the way he handled himself was his fault. Kyle is much like Tony Stewart when Stewart was in his 20s at Gibbs. Team president J.D. Gibbs said so. I think Kyle is still maturing, and if he doesn't make the Chase, so what? Dale Earnhardt Jr. has missed it and will miss it again. Stewart has, too.

David Caraviello: I would agree with Raygan here. Can you imagine Kyle, needing to make up like 40 points or so at Richmond to make the Chase? I don't know if he's ever faced pressure like that in his NASCAR career. How would he deal with it? He might not talk to anyone all week! But let's hope this new, improved "be a better person" Kyle helps him take some of the pressure off himself. Though I'll believe that when I see it, or hear it over the radio.

Bill Kimm: And here we go with his attitude again. The kid hates losing. I like that. Does he take it too far, sure, but us in the media have to quit complaining about him blowing us off -- we need to get some thicker skin.

David Caraviello: Well, Bill, when he bolts from the race track, he's not just blowing us off. He's also blowing off the sponsors who have paid umpteen millions to paste their logos on his car and firesuit and want an explanation just like everyone else. He's blowing off fans who will continue to cast him in the somewhat unfair role of the villain. I know this is a lot to comprehend, but stay with me.

Bill Kimm: Then he will have to answer to his sponsors. But he doesn't owe the fans or the media a sound bite.

Raygan Swan: I almost think Kyle missing the Chase, or barely making the top 12, might be the reality check he and the team needs. Because it's almost as if Kyle appeared to be invincible last season. I'm not a sports shrink, but drivers have to have a realistic perception of themselves.

David Caraviello: Five minutes before the cameras, Bill, takes care of all that in one fell swoop. And Raygan, I might agree with you on missing the Chase. I like Kyle the way he is -- he's fantastic for the sport -- but a small dose of humility might make him a little more palatable to more people in the grandstand. Hey, nobody wants the guy to go all Stuart Smalley. That attitude and arrogance are the best thing going in NASCAR right now. But clearly, he's still working to round off some of his rougher edges. He'll get there.

Raygan Swan: Yeah, because Kyle is a good person off the track. He's dating a nice girl [a Purdue grad], he loves his dogs, he's good to his friends and his family. It's just no one will ever know that, because he's already been typecast as a villain in the sport.

David Caraviello: Much like Bill Kimm in Track Smack!

• Busch gets chance to put new attitude to test
• Handicapping Busch's chances to make Chase

2. Roush Fenway Racing has announced that Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle and David Ragan will comprise its driver roster in 2010. Where does this leave Jamie McMurray?

Bill Kimm: The unemployment line. I kid! Roush hopes the entire No. 26 team just slides nicely to Yates Racing, but I don't see that happening.

David Caraviello: He's out of a ride, obviously. And is there any certainty that he'll wind up at Yates Racing? We always thought the "extra" Roush driver under the four-car cap would automatically wind up in the Yates shop, but after this week's announcement I'm not so sure.

Jamie McMurray

Cup Statistics

	Ganassi	Roush*	2009
Starts	114	128	20
Wins	1	1	0
Top-5s	19	10	0
Top-10s	48	30	3
Poles	2	1	0
Laps Led	480	192	1
Lead-Lap Fin.	74	68	13
Avg. Start	15.8	22.4	23.4
Avg. Finish	16.8	21.5	20.2

* Includes 2009

Bill Kimm: Yeah David, I think we all assumed Crown Royal and the entire 26 operation would move to Yates, but now with no sponsor on the 26, I don't see that happening.

Raygan Swan: I can't figure Jamie McMurray out. Just when I think he's proving his worth on the track, his performance shifts the other way. I don't know, four seasons with only one win is kind of rough. Maybe he can find success with Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, where he found his first Cup win -- OK, it was just with Chip Ganassi, but close enough -- years ago, but I just don't know.

David Caraviello: Are he and Chip on good enough terms that they might get back together again? And if the answer is yes, does that mean Aric Almirola gets shifted elsewhere once again?

Raygan Swan: I think so, David, because Chip told Danica Patrick to wait, and Aric is too all over the place. That is my speculation only, but I'd rather see J-Mac at EGR than as the Roush B team at Yates Racing, no offense to them. I think NASCAR benefits from a personality like Jamie's.

Bill Kimm: That No. 1 car has to look enticing to McMurray. As for Almirola, I'd rather have Jamie Mac than Aric behind the wheel. And as we've learned, Puffy was ahead of the times when he sang, It's all about the Benjamins, baby!

David Caraviello: The more I think about the Yates thing, the more I think it's not going to happen. I mean, Jamie is having a rough year, but he's still 20th in points. The Yates cars are well below that. And since sponsorship isn't part of the deal, you'd have to think Yates doesn't have the cash to add another program. Of course, stranger things have happened. But if not Yates, where? This is a brutal year to be looking for a ride, especially a rather high-level one of the kind McMurray is used to. Not a lot of openings out there.

Bill Kimm: Aside from the 1, what is out there? Nothing jumps to my mind.

Raygan Swan: Is Gibbs going to open a fourth team? Will Stewart-Haas do a third? No clue. It all depends on sponsorship I would assume.

David Caraviello: Well, there's always that mythical third car at Stewart-Haas, that everyone is lining up for!

Raygan Swan: I put my application in last week, David. Haven't heard back.

David Caraviello: It's all wait and see at this point. Does SHR start up a third car? Does Gibbs add a fourth? Does Kevin Harvick bolt RCR early? Does Red Bull make a change? Is there movement at RPM? All of those things could happen, and none of them could. And given the economic conditions right now, I wouldn't bet on anyone adding an extra car. Somebody needs to start a new team so Brad Keselowski and McMurray can have rides. MacBrad Racing!

Bill Kimm: I think I have 10 bucks in my wallet. How much can you chip in, Raygs?

Raygan Swan: They could steal Go Daddy from Danica, and J-Mac could get that fabulous shampoo sponsor back. Was it Fructis or something like that?

David Caraviello: That was a Brian Vickers sponsor at Hendrick, I believe. (Note: Garnier Fructis was the primary sponsor on the No. 25 Chevrolet for four races in 2005-06).

Raygan Swan: Oh. OK, then I've got $5 on it.

Bill Kimm: Never thought David would out-Raygs Raygan!

David Caraviello: I've been around a little longer, Bill. Plus, I'm out of Fructis Apple Splash conditioner. Need to pick up more at the store today!

• Crown Royal moving sponsorship to No. 17 car

3. Which race this weekend is more intriguing -- the Sprint Cup event at Pocono or the Nationwide debut at Iowa Speedway?

Bill Kimm: I mean this in all niceness to the folks in Pennsylvania, but anything is more intriguing than a Pocono race!

David Caraviello: Iowa, baby. Let's go racing in the corn! Very intrigued to see the racing on this less-than-1-mile tri-oval. Looks something like Richmond, only bigger. And we know what kind of racing there is at Richmond.,

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Raygan Swan: That is a tough question, especially for me to answer, because what interests me are storylines off the track, not necessarily the racing at either place. But I'm dying to know if Kyle can pull out a top-10 at Pocono, who will run out of gas this time, or how many rain-delay fights Bob Osborne and Carl Edwards will have.

David Caraviello: Oh please, Raygan. You just miss the bathroom in the Pocono media center.

Raygan Swan: Oh, I knew you wouldn't forget. Thank God for the third trimester! I get to stay home. Besides, they didn't serve the darn pretzels last time out. Where were the pretzels? Joe Menzer was bummed! And as for the bathroom, hovering with an extra 40 pounds is far too great a risk to take for me!

Bill Kimm: This backs up my statement. We are talking about bathrooms and pretzels instead of the racing. Pocono is baaaaadddd.

David Caraviello: Seriously, this is a nice stretch for the Nationwide boys. Last week and this week, they're on tracks that appear -- in the case of Iowa, at least -- to be more entertaining venues than those the Cup drivers are racing on. No question, the action at O'Reilly Raceway Park last weekend trumped that at the big speedway in Indianapolis. I fully expect the same to happen this week. You just wish there was some way for NASCAR to capitalize on it to get the Nationwide tour a little more pub.

Raygan Swan: Jason Leffler seems to think so. He said the Iowa track is the perfect combination of short track and superspeedway racing. I'll be watching.

Bill Kimm: You're right, David. Pocono needs to trim at least 150 miles off that marathon and only go once a year. Then it might become semi-entertaining again.

David Caraviello: Bill, Pocono has issues. No question, the people up there have been good to NASCAR, and NASCAR hasn't forgotten. But the location, the length, the lack of action ... and do they still have that infernal guardrail on the inside of the backstretch? I can still see Steve Park flipping over that thing.

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Raygan Swan: Bill, this is the same Pocono where Tony got his first points race win as an owner and pulled some fancy fuel-mileage trick to barely make it across the finish line. How is that not entertaining? And there was a man hug with him and Ryan in Victory Lane!

David Caraviello: And who doesn't love a big man hug from a sweaty Tony Stewart?

Bill Kimm: I know I do!

Raygan Swan: Don't knock it 'til you've tried it, boys!

Bill Kimm: My problem isn't with the people, it's with the track. It just doesn't lead to good racing. And Raygs, I watched every lap of that Pocono race -- it wasn't exciting. I don't care how it finished.

Raygan Swan: You know, a lot of the racing this season has been sort of dull, but I appreciate the stories nonetheless. I think there have been some great happenings this season, and that has kept me entertained enough.

David Caraviello: Right now, it looks like three drivers are competing in both events -- Kyle, Edwards, and Harvick. That means the usual cross-country travel issues that make these weekends kind of fun. I wonder if they'll all be on the same plane?

Bill Kimm: I'm not sure if I would classify Iowa-to-Pennsylvania as cross-country.

Raygan Swan: Oh no, Kyle is screwed! That's how he landed his terrible finishes last season, overextending himself in trying to do the Trucks [at Texas], Nationwide [at Nashville] and Cup [at Pocono] tripleheader. I do like to see Kyle run, though. Remember, David, what did we say he looked like? A blue heron? The grace of a blue heron. That was it.

David Caraviello: We, kemosabe? I believe that was you!

The opinions expressed are solely those of the participants.