Stewart dealing right now, but oh how things change

1. Tony Stewart has three victories on the season, leads the point standings by a wide margin, and will clinch a Chase berth by just starting Sunday at Michigan. Odds of him being able to close the deal?

David Caraviello: Right now, no better than even money. Hey, no question the guy has been good. But at this point last season, Kyle Busch was in even better position. At this point two years ago, Jeff Gordon looked unstoppable. We'll see what happens, but the regular-season leader doesn't have a very good track record as far as being able to finish the job in the Chase.

Joe Menzer: Well, he's clearly the favorite -- and rightly so. What he's done to date is remarkable, and there is no reason to think he won't be able to close the deal. But the question is, could he be overdue for some bad racing luck?

Dave Rodman: I really think this is going to be a battle for the ages between Smoke and Jimmie Johnson. They will run through these last four races, at least I hope, taking all kinds of chances -- as they present themselves -- to win and get more bonus points.

David Caraviello: I will grant you that Tony is using a lot of Hendrick equipment, and Hendrick's quality control is unsurpassed in the sport. So I don't expect a series of breakdowns like Kyle had last year. Of course, Johnson and Gordon will be using the same stuff. And the bonus point difference between Smoke and Jimmie looks to be negligible.

Joe Menzer: This may sound crazy, but I think the dark horse in the Chase may turn out to be Juan Montoya. I think once he gets in -- and now he's almost a lock to do so -- he might just turn it up a notch, or three.

Dave Rodman: More than anything this season, Tony has shown himself to be stable, consistent and no less of a driver than he ever was. That makes him eminently dangerous. Comparisons to Kyle Busch in 2008 aren't valid, to me, because Shrub is volatile to this day, while Tony is well beyond that.

David Caraviello: Well, Dave, I don't think Kyle's volatility had much to do with the way things ended last year. They just had too much stuff break, and not because Kyle was overdriving the car. The same thing could happen to anyone come September -- including Stewart. But again, Hendrick's stuff has a better track record for holding up.

Joe Menzer: Agreed on the fact that it probably will come down to Smoke vs. JJ in the end. And I think it will be close. But there always is one guy who jumps up there at the start of the Chase -- and I think that might be Montoya.

David Caraviello: Joe, are you on the Montoya payroll all of the sudden?

Targeted approach

After months of trying to force Juan Montoya to adapt to setups, crew chief Brian Pattie started tailoring setups to fit the driver. That has laid the groundwork for Montoya's rise to championship contender.

• More

Joe Menzer: Nope. Just have a feeling. And I've said all along that the dude can flat-out drive. I just think he gets it now -- and that he's been playing it somewhat safe to get into the Chase. Once he's in, all bets are off. Plus, their equipment -- at least with that No. 42 car -- has proven to be better than most of us thought it would be this year. They've been pretty consistent, especially of late.

Dave Rodman: Tony and Darian Grubb haven't "done it" yet -- as in winning a title -- but it's not hard to make comparisons between Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson and what Stewart and Grubb are achieving. This will be a great Chase and all things considered, they are the two prohibitive favorites. But Knaus and Johnson have done it, and that can't be minimized against a field that hasn't. It's well known how finely tuned Knaus and Johnson's Chase machine has become; and no matter how good Stewart is running, someone's still going to have to take that title away from them, in my opinion.

David Caraviello: My question is, what is everyone holding back? Who knows what Chad still has up his sleeve -- he's won this thing three times before, and plays the Chase game better than anyone. And talking to Brian Pattie last weekend, it sounds like that No. 42 team is going to unleash the hounds come New Hampshire. Right now they're hitting their number every week, biding their time. That's all going to change when the Chase begins.

Dave Rodman: Joe, I think your dark horse call is a good one. It's impossible to tell how much Montoya and Brian Pattie are points racing right now. I guess, until we get to the Chase, we won't really know, and it'll be interesting to see if they can produce in that environment.

Joe Menzer: And excuse me, fellas, for attempting to think a little out of the box and bring someone else besides the obvious choices of Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson into this discussion!

David Caraviello: A large shipment of fine Colombian coffee is going to arrive at Menzer's doorstep any day now!

Joe Menzer: But I don't drink coffee!

David Caraviello: You will, Menzer. You will.

• Rodman: Stewart, Johnson will be tough to keep down
• Aumann: Stewart has chance to join elite list of champs

2. He has a top-20 standing in points, and a runner-up finish on the Sprint Cup tour. Is Marcos Ambrose for real?

Joe Menzer: He is as for real in NASCAR as Vegemite is for real in Australia, if that makes any sense. Yes, this guy can drive. And not just on road courses. He's getting better everywhere he goes, all the time.

Dave Rodman: He definitely is, but he's been proving that since the beginning of the season. They're not in the top 20 by accident and, for a first year team, their performance is downright stupendous.

Marcos Ambrose

2009 Results

Wins	0
Top-5s	3
Fin. 6-10	3
Fin. 11-15	4
Fin. 16-20	3
Fin. 21-30	4
Fin. 31-plus	5
DNFs	2*
Lead-Lap Fin.	15

* Engine

David Caraviello: He's still a little all over the place in terms of his finishes -- 34th one weekend, second the next -- but I'll tell you what makes me think Ambrose is going to make it: 10th at Bristol, 11th at Richmond, sixth at Pocono, sixth at Daytona, 11th at Chicago. He is really, really getting the hang of these oval tracks. They need to get better on 1.5-mile intermediates, but they're definitely getting there.

Joe Menzer: And here's the thing to remember, too: he isn't driving a Hendrick-assisted car. Granted, Michael Waltrip Racing has gotten better -- but in many ways, JTG Daugherty Racing is its own one-car deal. That's what makes his performance this season remarkable. There definitely is that "it" chemistry between Frank Kerr and Ambrose -- sought by so many in the garage, and so elusive as well. Very important in this equation.

David Caraviello: Now, no question, his best shot to win is still on a road course. I think they were more disappointed than they let on with that runner-up finish Monday at Watkins Glen. That pit strategy pays off, they had the car to run away from people, and they knew it (read more).

Dave Rodman: Well, there are some better teams than theirs who are saying they're just getting their intermediate programs figured out. Didn't Jeff Gordon this weekend talk about how strong theirs had become? Ambrose and Frank Kerr have become so committed to each other, and so consistent -- and with their continuing their deal at MWR, I see a real Chase challenge next season.

David Caraviello: Well, I don't know about the Chase. There's a big difference between 17th in points, where they are now, and 12th. But go back to Montoya -- it took him three years to get this thing figured out. Next year is Ambrose's third season. For him, 2011 may be the true breakthrough year, if everything stays in place. But it is kind of wild to think that this former Supercar driver is ahead of guys like Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Jamie McMurray and Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the point standings.

Dave Rodman: Priceless. It will be very interesting to see what develops with MWR next season. I know, at the beginning I predicted that Michael Waltrip would not be the one to fall like a stone, but I was wrong. If Little Martin [Truex] can get Bono to come to MWR with him, they could very easily have three top-20 teams next season.

David Caraviello: I don't disagree, Dave, although Truex's crew chief, Kevin Manion, has been rather coy about his future to this point. But as far as Ambrose goes, the guy is committed, and he seems to have sponsors behind him. That goes a long, long way.

Hard at work: David Caraviello and Joe "Bright Idea" Menzer

Writer's Block

Our writers can do more than ... well, write. Watch what they do and say when given a video camera and a little leeway.

• David Caraviello
• Joe Menzer
• Dave Rodman

Dave Rodman: Third year in what, DC? Cup? He raced a year in Trucks; what, two in Busch/Nationwide; and now this is his opening year in Cup. He took a beating in the lower formulae, but he's erasing the lumps this season and I don't see him looking back.

David Caraviello: I don't know how much all that Nationwide and Truck stuff helps him with these Cup cars, which are a completely different animal. But he more than got his feet wet last year with the Wood Brothers.

Joe Menzer: I think it was important also for JTG Daugherty to get it worked out so the alliance with MWR stays in place. The best thing for Ambrose/Kerr right now and that entire team will be continuity. And Marcos is an engaging guy. I mean, back at the beginning of the season, he invited me into his hauler and prepared a tasty Vegemite on English muffin breakfast for me! He even gave me a glass of milk to wash it down.

David Caraviello: Dang, between the Vegemite and the Colombian coffee, Joe is becoming quite the connoisseur of world cuisine.

Joe Menzer: I'll take a glass of cold milk -- or depending on time of day, a cold Coors Light -- over any kind of coffee, any time.

Dave Rodman: You and Juan both, though I don't know about his affinity for Coors Light! Juan said last weekend he does not drink coffee, despite being Colombian.

David Caraviello: Well then, he and Joe have that in common. The coffee part, I mean, unless the Menzer clan is originally from Bogota.

• Ambrose: Tranformation from outsider to contender
• 1on1: Like most Aussies, Ambrose eats Vegemite

3. Bristol has announced that its night race next weekend is a sellout. Is this a harbinger of good news for a sport hit hard by the recession?

David Caraviello: Let's hope so. The stock market has inched back up, the real estate market is showing signs of turning around, and Bristol announces a sellout a week early. Now, this race has always been the more popular one, and track president Jeff Byrd said in the spring that some people bought season tickets to Bristol just to attend the night race. But still, it's a good sign.

Joe Menzer: It's a sign of the times that they were even sweating it a little bit for the night race at Bristol. Wasn't it only a couple of years ago that they claimed to have a massive waiting list for folks who wanted to attend that race?

Dave Rodman: Totally, Joe. It's Bristol, and it's August, so I don't think it really relates to anything. Let's go to Atlanta the week after and if they reach two-thirds full, we'll consider that a victory.

David Caraviello: Yes, Joe, they did have a waiting list. They also sold out every race for more than a decade. The recession changed all that. Bristol relies on a lot of fans from like Indiana and Ohio, states that have been hit hard.

Joe Menzer: I think Atlanta is counting on more than two-thirds full for this first Labor Day race. They've made a huge publicity push for it -- for some time. It was almost like they wrote off the spring race in anticipation of filling the place for Labor Day.

Dave Rodman: Well, God bless 'em -- they did a good job of that in the spring. They out-California'ed California with that one. I guess I'm out of touch with the fandom, because Atlanta has great racing, the access is much improved and the stadium appears to offer great views. And yet on the attendance front they continue to suffer.

David Caraviello: The races that bookend Bristol -- Michigan this weekend, and Atlanta on Labor Day -- will be more of a barometer in my mind. Good crowds in those places might convince me that this attendance issue is turning around.

Joe Menzer: Actually running the race on the day it is scheduled might help, too!

David Caraviello: Are you talking about Michigan? That was two years ago, man. And our own Rain Man, Mark Aumann, will be nowhere near the Irish Hills this weekend. So bring the sunscreen and the golf clubs!

Joe Menzer: Man, I'm just really happy that I'm working this weekend's race with Roadman -- and not Rain Man Aumann. I half expected a torrential downpour to commence while he was filming his video blog for this week! (He drove the "old" Watkins Glen road course, if you haven't seen it).

David Caraviello: He did that on Saturday. We got the torrential downpour on Sunday!

Dave Rodman: Well, don't forget I started out the weekend at Pocono; and it seems I've been to a couple of other rainy weekends. But I'm not bringing the golf clubs this weekend, so that should guarantee sunshine.

Joe Menzer: Do whatever you have to do, my man. I want to get into the state of Michigan and get out, like any good Ohio native.

Dave Rodman: But to your point, DC, you're right about the bookend races. I'd like to see a good crowd at Michigan, but have my doubts, despite the great Race we're having to the Chase. This is some real drama going on. And again, I swear the guys out front should be thinking, "How outrageous can I get to try to win?" I know they're trying to win every week -- as hard as they think they can -- but someone has to think outside the box to come up with something different they can do, because this year more than any other, bonus points could matter. Though if Smoke has the Chase that he's having in the regular season, it could all be moot.

David Caraviello: Back to the attendance issue. We're hitting a stretch of tracks -- places like Bristol, Richmond, New Hampshire and Kansas -- that have traditionally drawn very, very well. So the potential is there, at least, for good crowds at many places down the stretch. The fact that this points situation is very interesting, and several guys are in the mix, and a popular driver is leading the standings, cannot hurt.

• Purchase tickets
• Book your travel

Joe Menzer: What constitutes a "good crowd" at Michigan these days? I mean, we have to be realistic in this economy -- especially in that part of the country. The place seats 132,000. If they get 100,000, I think that'll be pretty darn good.

David Caraviello: Oh, they'd be ecstatic for 100,000. I think the box score in June showed 90,000, which still wasn't bad considering the economic conditions there. They're really working hard to bring in people from other places, to make up for those who have left metro Detroit.

Dave Rodman: With what's going to be on the line at Richmond, you'd have to think that place will sell out. And with Stewart being a Chase contender, and quite possibly the Chase leader if he can win one more of these next four, which I think is quite likely -- I'd be surprised if attendance was down at all at any of the next four races after Richmond. At these next four races, something disastrous is going to happen for at least one of these eight Chase contenders, and it depends if you want to see it in person or watch it on TV.

Joe Menzer: Or if you have the money to make that choice. That's the key here. But Richmond should sell out for sure. Then you've got New Hampshire, which should be at least close, Dover and Kansas. We shall see.

David Caraviello: Ultimately, though, this all comes down to how much cash people have in their wallets. A great advertising campaign or a popular driver leading the points cannot change that.

Dave Rodman: Guys, you're right on the disposable income. People are having to weigh spending money on entertainment versus eating better, or getting something they need for the house and homestead. You could easily argue that we've been lucky to have the crowds we have had, as "down" as they are.

David Caraviello: Oh, and then there's this little secret -- the racing the past few weeks has actually been pretty good. Don't tell the fans that, because they'll all get angry and start pining for the mythical days when Petty and Pearson ran side-by-side. But Pocono and Watkins were both good races.

Joe Menzer: The bad news for all of us is that Rain Main Aumann is working both the Bristol and Atlanta races, so it'll probably pour. I'm working Bristol with him -- and I'm already planning on bringing extra clothes.

Dave Rodman: Bring duck boots. Keeping feet dry in that situation is key.

David Caraviello: And a hot thermos of fine Colombian coffee!

Joe Menzer: Gimme a cooler of cold beer over the coffee every time.

David Caraviello: Won't have a tough time finding that at the race track.

The opinions expressed are those solely of the participants.