As Chase nears, Bristol to be exciting or total bore?

1. Brian Vickers is 12 points out of 12th. Kyle Busch is running out of chances. How desperate will the racing be Saturday night at Bristol?

David Caraviello: I'm not sure we really know what to expect out of the night Bristol race these days. Sometimes, given its proximity to the Chase, it seems rather tame, full of guys content to hold their positions. It all depends on how desperate guys like Vickers and Kyle are -- and how hard they're willing to push everyone else.

Joe Menzer: You know, one of the criticisms of the Chase has been that it's frequently turned guys conservative for the night race at Bristol. I don't think guys like Vickers and Busch, who are trying to get in, can afford to be conservative this time around. And that could be a good thing as far as helping put on a great show.

Dave Rodman: I don't know. That would kind of discount the fact that most everyone is trying as hard to win, already, as they can. Will it lead to desperate moves and bad decisions? I'd like to think it would take at least 425 laps for that to happen. Vickers doesn't have to do anything extraordinary outside of what the team is already doing. They're getting it done. If they make a business-as-usual run, they'll be just fine. They have to make sure someone else's idiocy doesn't involve them.

David Caraviello: But really, we're talking about what, three or four guys who are trying to race their way in? Out of a field of 43? When eight or nine are going to be racing very carefully to avoid disasters, and half the field doesn't really have a chance to win anyway? I'm not sure that equals the slam-bang action everyone will be hoping for.

Joe Menzer: Roadman, if you think everyone is trying as hard as they can to win, I think you are dreaming. There are guys trying to get into the Chase who would sign up today for a top-10 finish, even if it precluded their chance to win. I'm not saying that's right, but that's the way it is now.

Dave Rodman: The slam-bang days of Bristol are quickly sinking into ancient history. Get over it. It's a race track now, and since we're talking racing, I don't see how that can be a bad thing.

David Caraviello: Well, it's a bad thing if you've grown up with the helmet-throwing, cage-rattling antics that made Bristol famous, and don't happen very often anymore. But those fireworks in the night race are a thing of the past. Too many guys -- the ones driving the best cars, I might add -- have too much at stake.

Fact or fiction?

Mark Aumann looks at recent caution-flag trends at Bristol and finds some surprising results.

• Complete story
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Joe Menzer: And wait a minute. Guys, are you forgetting the fireworks of last year's Bristol night race? Yes, it was boring two years ago. But not last year!

David Caraviello: Dude, I can't remember where I was last week, much less what happened last year.

Joe Menzer: That's sad, DC2. I thought I was supposed to be the old one. Um, wait a minute. No, that's Roadman. Anyway, I seem to recall some pretty good slam-banging at last year's night race at Bristol. In fact, it was great stuff with Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch beating on each other at the end. More of the same would be just fine, no matter who's doing the banging and beating. But many of these guys face a dilemma -- you can't go in there and not be aggressive, or you'll get run over. It's sort of like going to the prevent defense in the NFL too early. Do it, and you're playing with fire.

David Caraviello: So you have what, about four guys -- Martin, Vickers, Bowyer and Busch -- who have to go all out? That's your whole race, right there. If they qualify poorly and have to start at the back, the fireworks might come out again after all.

Dave Rodman: Well, you have at least a third of the field that can't win, but they have to race their butts off to do as well as they can. You've only got four or five teams that are playing prevent. I'd like to think the top-five guys would go absolutely berserk trying to win, because they have nothing -- repeat, nothing at all -- to lose and those 10 bonus points could count for a thousand before too long. and then, you have the guys who really have to race hard.

Joe Menzer: You hit it out of the park with that analysis, old man. That's why I think you'll see a great race Saturday night!

Dave Rodman: Are we done? Who are you, again? Which way to the men's room? (Continued)