As Chase nears, Bristol to be exciting or total bore?
Johnson struggles with fuel gauge; Junior wants changes
By NASCAR.COM
August 20, 2009
03:20 PM EDT
August 20, 2009
03:20 PM EDT
type size: + -
1. Brian Vickers is 12 points out of 12th. Kyle Busch is running out of chances. How desperate will the racing be Saturday night at Bristol?
David Caraviello: I'm not sure we really know what to expect out of the night Bristol race these days. Sometimes, given its proximity to the Chase, it seems rather tame, full of guys content to hold their positions. It all depends on how desperate guys like Vickers and Kyle are -- and how hard they're willing to push everyone else.
Joe Menzer: You know, one of the criticisms of the Chase has been that it's frequently turned guys conservative for the night race at Bristol. I don't think guys like Vickers and Busch, who are trying to get in, can afford to be conservative this time around. And that could be a good thing as far as helping put on a great show.
Dave Rodman: I don't know. That would kind of discount the fact that most everyone is trying as hard to win, already, as they can. Will it lead to desperate moves and bad decisions? I'd like to think it would take at least 425 laps for that to happen. Vickers doesn't have to do anything extraordinary outside of what the team is already doing. They're getting it done. If they make a business-as-usual run, they'll be just fine. They have to make sure someone else's idiocy doesn't involve them.
David Caraviello: But really, we're talking about what, three or four guys who are trying to race their way in? Out of a field of 43? When eight or nine are going to be racing very carefully to avoid disasters, and half the field doesn't really have a chance to win anyway? I'm not sure that equals the slam-bang action everyone will be hoping for.
Joe Menzer: Roadman, if you think everyone is trying as hard as they can to win, I think you are dreaming. There are guys trying to get into the Chase who would sign up today for a top-10 finish, even if it precluded their chance to win. I'm not saying that's right, but that's the way it is now.
Dave Rodman: The slam-bang days of Bristol are quickly sinking into ancient history. Get over it. It's a race track now, and since we're talking racing, I don't see how that can be a bad thing.
David Caraviello: Well, it's a bad thing if you've grown up with the helmet-throwing, cage-rattling antics that made Bristol famous, and don't happen very often anymore. But those fireworks in the night race are a thing of the past. Too many guys -- the ones driving the best cars, I might add -- have too much at stake.
Fact or fiction?
Mark Aumann looks at recent caution-flag trends at Bristol and finds some surprising results.
Joe Menzer: And wait a minute. Guys, are you forgetting the fireworks of last year's Bristol night race? Yes, it was boring two years ago. But not last year!
David Caraviello: Dude, I can't remember where I was last week, much less what happened last year.
Joe Menzer: That's sad, DC2. I thought I was supposed to be the old one. Um, wait a minute. No, that's Roadman. Anyway, I seem to recall some pretty good slam-banging at last year's night race at Bristol. In fact, it was great stuff with Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch beating on each other at the end. More of the same would be just fine, no matter who's doing the banging and beating. But many of these guys face a dilemma -- you can't go in there and not be aggressive, or you'll get run over. It's sort of like going to the prevent defense in the NFL too early. Do it, and you're playing with fire.
David Caraviello: So you have what, about four guys -- Martin, Vickers, Bowyer and Busch -- who have to go all out? That's your whole race, right there. If they qualify poorly and have to start at the back, the fireworks might come out again after all.
Dave Rodman: Well, you have at least a third of the field that can't win, but they have to race their butts off to do as well as they can. You've only got four or five teams that are playing prevent. I'd like to think the top-five guys would go absolutely berserk trying to win, because they have nothing -- repeat, nothing at all -- to lose and those 10 bonus points could count for a thousand before too long. and then, you have the guys who really have to race hard.
Joe Menzer: You hit it out of the park with that analysis, old man. That's why I think you'll see a great race Saturday night!
Dave Rodman: Are we done? Who are you, again? Which way to the men's room?
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2. Jimmie Johnson has three consecutive championships. So why can't the No. 48 team figure out fuel mileage races?
Joe Menzer: That's one of the oddest things I've seen in Cup racing lately. Hard to figure out why they can't do the math better.
Dave Rodman: Well, it was nice of them to admit last weekend that they truly do stink at fuel-mileage races, because I had figured that out a while ago. If it was easy to compute, I'd actually figure out how many fuel races they've actually lost.
Mr. Cool
Jimmie Johnson credits some hard lessons learned from his father as early as six years old for his "plain and vanilla" attitude on the track.
David Caraviello: One day, philosophers will ponder the great questions of the universe, such as: Who built the pyramids? Is there life on other planets? And why can't the No. 48 team figure out how much gas is left in the tank at Michigan?
Joe Menzer: Was I the only one who had great difficulty understanding how they thought they could make it 51 laps between stops Sunday at Michigan -- when they couldn't make it 47 at the same track in June?
Dave Rodman: But that's the beauty of what we were talking about in topic No. 1. They've got overpowering, winning race cars, and that's all that matters to them. Screw this limp-wristed fuel-management racing, they're going to get after it, and if being a feather-foot is what's required to win ... well, J.J.'s managed to win a few other races by getting after it, so we'll forgive him.
David Caraviello: Still, it's just bizarre. Chad Knaus is the best crew chief working today, hands down. And yet, why can't they figure out fuel mileage? I know Jimmie said all the right things publicly Sunday, but he had to be thinking: dude, what were we doing?
Joe Menzer: Really, as far as last Sunday's race is concerned, once they decided to gamble, they needed a late caution to be able to top off. Otherwise, if they come in under green, they're doomed to a poor finish anyway. So their thinking was, why not just go for it, even though it's a long shot? But there was just no way they were going to make it. So in that sense, it made no sense.
David Caraviello: Right, because they have nothing to lose. I get that, Joe. But unless they developed a secret, more fuel-efficient engine since the last Michigan race, the numbers alone should have told them they had no shot.
Dave Rodman: I heard them say the only chance they had to win was to do what they did. They tried and they lost. They're in a position where points just don't matter so for drama's sake, it was great to see them try what they tried. They knew they couldn't win the other way.
Writer's Block
Our writers can do more than ... well, write. Watch what they do and say when given a video camera and a little leeway.
Joe Menzer: One of the aspects of the whole deal that has been overlooked a little is the fact that Vickers did a brilliant job of making J.J. run harder than he wanted, and drafting off him at the same time so he could save fuel. And it's worth noting that while J.J. didn't come close to making it 51 laps on his last tank of fuel, I believe that's exactly what Vickers ended up doing.
Dave Rodman: I guess what you might consider odd was that they didn't try some aspect of road-race strategy and pit on the lap where they knew they could make it, and roll the dice from there. But on the other hand, they knew they weren't going to come from the back at Michigan, no matter how good their car was.
David Caraviello: Unless -- and I wouldn't put it past Chad and Jimmie to do this -- that was one of those late-regular-season "test sessions" they've been known to do in the past. With their position locked up, see exactly how far they can push it and have the notes ready for a potential fuel-mileage Chase race at California. Otherwise, if I'm trying to unseat Johnson, I'm lobbying for a Chase that includes Michigan, Sonoma, and Watkins Glen. If fuel mileage is truly their Achilles' heel, maybe that's the way to beat them.
Dave Rodman: It will be interesting to see if it comes into play in this Chase, because for whatever stubborn reason they have, history's shown us they haven't grasped it.
Joe Menzer: The bottom line here was delivered by Jimmie himself right after the race. It isn't just Michigan with the 48 team and fuel-mileage troubles. They've been bad at it just about everywhere they've tried to stretch it, except for one time at Phoenix.
David Caraviello: Which is so out of character, Joe, especially given how well they do everything else. And a no-chance roll of the dice like Sunday doesn't make a whole lot of sense -- unless they're trying to get better for later on, when it counts. Maybe President Obama gave Jimmie some tips on fuel efficiency when they met at the White House on Wednesday. Who knows, he might have traded in the No. 48 for a Prius under the "cash for clunkers" program.
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3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. said last week that the current Cup car needs wholesale changes to spice up the racing. Is he right?
Joe Menzer: No, I don't think he is. I understand what he's saying, but just because his No. 88 team hasn't been able to figure out the new car to his liking doesn't mean others haven't. And I don't recall him complaining about it this much when he was second in points much of last year.
Dave Rodman: Uh, I felt like that was one, last desperate cry from the edge of a cliff, out in the wilderness, by ol' June Bug. Plenty of other people seem to have figured the car out a lot of the time.
Looking for change
Dale Earnhardt Jr. says he thinks races in the new car are boring and he wants some changes made.
David Caraviello: Listen, I understand where Dale Jr. is coming from. From a competitor's standpoint, this car has to be a handful. It can't be nearly as fun to drive as its predecessor. But tossing out all kinds of potential fixes -- let's just widen the tires! Let's just shift weight around! -- doesn't do it. That's how the law of unintended consequences goes into full effect.
Dave Rodman: But -- and a big but it is -- this car in a lot of ways doesn't seem to be any less aero-dependant than the previous version was. Solving that isn't going be easy, but knee-jerk attempts at fixes aren't the way to go, either.
David Caraviello: No, you're right Dave. You'd basically have to rip this one up and start over, and nobody is going to do that.
Dave Rodman: I wonder if NASCAR would consider something like bringing the teams to a select number of race tracks a day early. Limit them to five crewmen apiece, and run a three-session test day on the day before normal opening.
Joe Menzer: We've batted this around before in Smack, but here's the thing: it doesn't really matter how much "fun" this car is to drive for the drivers. It's more about safety for them and whether or not it's good enough to put on a good show for the fans. I guess this is where I disagree most with Junior and a segment of fans that can't seem to get over the fact that the new car is here to stay. I don't think the racing this year has been that bad at all. In fact, I think many races have been darn good.
David Caraviello: I'm never a big fan of the "shut up and drive" mentality. That's what gets people hurt. Drivers often have legitimate concerns about things that need to be addressed. But if we listened to every complaint drivers had, we'd be changing something every week.
Dave Rodman: I've had a number of industry people say this car puts it more back in the hands of the drivers, and the best drivers will excel in this car. If you look at who's currently excelling, that train of thought does make some sense.
Joe Menzer: Not to keep picking on Junior -- although I'm sure my inbox will light up again with those insisting I'm doing so -- but I also disagree with his premise that it's something new that late cautions have been needed to "save" some races. It's always been that way. Regardless of what car they're running, there have been many races that have been relatively uneventful that suddenly have become very memorable with great finishes following late cautions. And now, that's magnified by the double-file restarts.
Dave Rodman: Joe, you're right again. Stuff happens, sometimes you need a caution and you don't get one; sometimes they fly and alter the outcome of races. This lapped-cars-to-the-back restart process is something that is so long overdue it doesn't bear belaboring, and if you want to witness the "cautions breeding cautions" theory in full effect -- well, I wish we had loop data stats on that, because I think this Saturday night might be a potential record-breaker!
Joe Menzer: It's also why the green-white-checkered finish was introduced -- which many drivers and crew chiefs and team owners despise, but many fans love. Again, it's about trying to give the fans what they want, and that's exciting finishes. It's what people remember. Not what happened on Lap 127.
David Caraviello: I think the impact of the double-file restarts shows that race quality is as much a factor of event rules as it is the technical package. No question, the races have been better since that rule was implemented. And look at all the different guys who have won this year, in a car that's designed to level the playing field.
Dave Rodman: It's about racing. It's what we talked about before. As much as guys say they're racing as hard as they can, well, if "props" like double-file restarts and green-white-checkers are what's necessary to liven it up a bit -- the fans rule, and that's what they want, so bring it on.
David Caraviello: And plus -- you can't go back now. We know, not everybody likes this car. But it's obviously safer, and it seems to be leveling the field at least somewhat. Plus, teams have invested too much money into building them. Nobody's going back to the drawing board. People need to come to grips with that.
Joe Menzer: And don't forget, Junior finished third in one of these cars at Michigan last Sunday. There is hope for him yet!
The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.
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