If Busch survives Atlanta, Chase berth looks strong

If Kyle Busch can escape Sunday's Pep Boys Auto 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway unscathed, the statistics suggest there's a strong chance he'll earn a berth in the Chase.

Busch, who currently sits 13th in the series standings, is strong at Richmond -- the final race before the Chase field is set. But at Atlanta, site of this weekend's race, he struggles despite a victory there last season.

In other words, those now in the top 12 might want to build more of a cushion this weekend --because after Richmond, it might be gone.

The two tracks are on the opposite sides of Busch's success spectrum. In terms of Driver Rating, at 89.4, Atlanta is his sixth-worst track. Richmond is his best track, with a Driver Rating of 112.1.

Still, the overall numbers look strong when compared to the competition. Busch's average statistics at the next two tracks show a big advantage on those drivers he needs to catch to make the Chase:

In 10 Atlanta starts, Busch has finished in the top 10 twice -- in both races of 2008. Overall, Busch's average finish at Atlanta is 18.2. Take out his 2008 results, and that average finish drops to 22.0.

Below is Busch's race-by-race log at Atlanta since the inception of Loop Data in 2005: