If Busch survives Atlanta, Chase berth looks strong

Driver struggles at AMS but excels at next week's track

By Official Release
September 4, 2009
03:18 PM EDT

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If Kyle Busch can escape Sunday's Pep Boys Auto 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway unscathed, the statistics suggest there's a strong chance he'll earn a berth in the Chase.

Busch, who currently sits 13th in the series standings, is strong at Richmond -- the final race before the Chase field is set. But at Atlanta, site of this weekend's race, he struggles despite a victory there last season.

In other words, those now in the top 12 might want to build more of a cushion this weekend --because after Richmond, it might be gone.

The two tracks are on the opposite sides of Busch's success spectrum. In terms of Driver Rating, at 89.4, Atlanta is his sixth-worst track. Richmond is his best track, with a Driver Rating of 112.1.

Kyle Busch

Best and Worst Tracks (Driver Rating)

Best Tracks	Driver Rating	Worst Tracks	Driver Rating

Richmond	112.1	Kansas	72.3
Las Vegas	109.4	Talladega	74.8
Auto Club	107.9	Pocono	78.9
Bristol	105.5	Homestead	79.6
Watkins Glen	104.9	Martinsville	89.1
		Atlanta	89.4

Still, the overall numbers look strong when compared to the competition. Busch's average statistics at the next two tracks show a big advantage on those drivers he needs to catch to make the Chase:

Chase Bubble Drivers

Atlanta/Richmond Avg. Statistics (9th - 13th)

Pos.	Driver	Driver Rating	Avg. Points

9.	Juan Montoya	70.6	85.5
10.	Mark Martin	89.7	125.3
11.	Kasey Kahne	86.8	113.4
12.	Matt Kenseth	88.9	122.5
13.	Kyle Busch	100.8	134.8

In 10 Atlanta starts, Busch has finished in the top 10 twice -- in both races of 2008. Overall, Busch's average finish at Atlanta is 18.2. Take out his 2008 results, and that average finish drops to 22.0.

Below is Busch's race-by-race log at Atlanta since the inception of Loop Data in 2005:

Kyle Busch

Atlanta Loop Data (2005-2009)

Date	Finish	Avg. Run Pos.	Fastest Laps Run	Laps T-15%	Rating	Led

3/05	12	18.6	0	21.5	74.9	0
10/05	12	10.2	6	82.8	96.2	4
3/06	12	17.8	0	56.3	84.4	0
10/06	27	29.2	1	2.5	45.0	0
3/07	32	32.6	29	5.5	63.9	0
10/07	20	4.4	31	95.4	111.5	77
3/08	1	1.7	56	100	143.9	173
10/08	5	9.0	2	98.2	101.5	0
3/09	18	20.2	2	18.2	83.7	0
Total	15.4	16.0	127	53.4	89.4	254

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Sprint Cup Series

Standings

Pos.	+/-	Driver	Points	Behind

1.	--	Tony Stewart	3,564	Leader
2.	+1	Jimmie Johnson	3,344	-220
3.	-1	Jeff Gordon	3,310	-254
4.	+1	Denny Hamlin	3,141	-423
5.	-1	Carl Edwards	3,110	-454
6.	--	Kurt Busch	3,103	-461
7.	+2	Ryan Newman	2,995	-569
8.	+2	Greg Biffle	2,986	-578
9.	-2	Juan Montoya	2,975	-589
10.	+2	Mark Martin	2,971	-593
11.	-3	Kasey Kahne	2,963	-601
12.	-1	Matt Kenseth	2,945	-619