Head2Head: Will top-12 shift after Richmond race?

Despite there being just one race remaining before the Chase, this thing is far from over.

A mere 122 points separate fifth through 14th. That's 10 drivers with no room for error. The last three seasons combined, only a total of four drivers fell within a similar point spread. Hands down, this is the tightest race to the Chase ever.

I hate to pick on Matt Kenseth, because any of the drivers not locked in could easily fall out, but I think his streak of Chase appearances will come to an end. Yes, Kenseth salvaged a 12th-place finish at Atlanta, but he has just two top-five finishes since the second race of the season. To make matters worse, Kenseth's average starting position at Richmond is 21st -- not good when you need to stay ahead of trouble -- and he's finished 38th or worse twice in the last three RIR races.

Meanwhile, Brian Vickers has a ton of momentum, having scored more points than anybody in the last eight races. He won the pole and led 21 laps en route to a top-15 finish earlier this year at Richmond.

Kyle Busch might be the man to beat Saturday night. He won the spring race at Richmond and has finished first or second in four of the last six races held there.

Richmond is a fast and physical track. With all of the contact and with three drivers battling for any one of eight spots, I expect there to be a shakeup before the Chase.

I've been predicting for weeks that Kyle Busch would make the Chase. It's time for me to admit I was wrong, because the current top 12 will remain that way after Richmond.

Right away, we can lock in Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch. Those three just have to finish 20th or better to clinch their spot and that won't be a problem. All three average a finish inside the top 20 at RIR and even if they run into trouble, should not have a problem clinching their spot.

As for the rest of the top 12 -- Ryan Newman, Juan Montoya, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth -- they all know what needs to be done. These are smart race car drivers, and as long as they keep Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers in their sight, they'll make the Chase.

This brings us to Vickers and Busch. You can put an argument together for both of them as to why they will race their way in. Vickers has eight consecutive top-12 finishes and Busch has seven top-fives at Richmond. But what both lack is history.

Neither driver has been in this position before, too much needs to happen above them and since the Chase has expanded to 12 drivers, no one has raced their way in at Richmond.

Saturday's race will be exciting, but in the end, Busch and Vickers will come up short and end up racing for 13th as the season winds down.