Chase 'bubble' solution: Just win at Richmond

There have been 6,936 laps of Sprint Cup Series racing since the green flag fell at Daytona on Feb. 15, and now the Race to the Chase comes down to 400 laps at Richmond on Saturday night (7 p.m. ET, ABC).

The easier question to answer is who's in -- Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin; that leaves eight Chase berths still up for grabs among 10 drivers. (Mathematically, 15th-place David Reutimann is in the running, but he's 132 points behind 12th-place Matt Kenseth.)

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Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch are outside looking in at the top 12 and looking to work their way into the 10-race playoffs.

"It's going to be a battle to the end," Vickers said. "It's going to be wild. I'm looking forward to it. Obviously, we'd like to be going to Richmond locked into the Chase. But to go in there, even in contention, for a two-and-a-half-year-old team, says a lot about these guys, how far we've come.

"No matter what happens, we can walk away with our heads held high."

The No. 18 team is openly touring its aspirations: "Our goal is to go win," said Steve Addington, crew chief for Busch. "We've got to go there and win and let the chips fall where they may.

"We've been working hard. We can't control what everybody else does. We can only control what we do. We need to go to Richmond and win the race."

When the 12-driver field for the Chase is set after Richmond, all qualifiers will have their point total reset to 5,000; each driver also receives 10 bonus points for each victory this year, creating the Chase seedings.

Mark Martin is the potential top seed, with four victories and a potential Chase starting total of 5,040 -- provided he makes the Chase. Busch also has four victories and 5,040 potential.

Stewart and Johnson have three wins, meaning they'll start the playoffs with at least 5,030 points.

The Top 12 and their career stats at Richmond:

Tony Stewart Pos.: 1 | Points: 3,694 | Chase: Clinched Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 21 3 19 15 15.7 10.0

Jeff Gordon Pos.: 2 | Points: 3,457 | Behind: -237 | Chase: Clinched Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 33 2 12 21 7.7 14.9

Jimmie Johnson Pos.: 3 | Points: 3,404 | Behind: -290 | Chase: Clinched Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 15 3 4 4 12.1 18.7

Denny Hamlin Pos.: 4 | Points:3,296 | Behind: -398 | Chase: Clinched Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg St. Avg Fin. 7 0 3 4 4.9 9.6

Carl Edwards Pos.: 5 | Points:3,162 | Behind: -532 Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 10 0 0 3 12.6 19.0

Kasey Kahne Pos.: 6 | Points:3,153 | Behind: -541 Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 11 1 2 5 14.0 18.5

Kurt Busch Pos.: 7 | Points:3,152 | Behind:-542 Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 17 1 2 5 20.4 18.7

Juan Montoya Pos.: 8 | Points:3,145 | Behind: -549 Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 5 0 0 1 17.6 27.8

Ryan Newman Pos.: 9 | Points:3,138 | Behind:-556 Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 15 1 5 9 9.5 11.7

Mark Martin Pos.: 10 | Points:3,126 | Behind:-568 Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 47 1 16 26 10.1 11.9

Greg Biffle Pos.: 11 | Points:3,125 | Behind:-569 Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 14 0 2 5 15.0 15.8

Matt Kenseth Pos.: 12 | Points:3,077 | Behind:-617 Races Wins Top-5 Top-10 Avg. St. Avg. Fin. 19 1 3 9 21.1 16.7

Inside the Numbers
• 3 -- Drivers who have raced their way into the Chase at Richmond: Jeremy Mayfield (2004), Ryan Newman (2005) and Kasey Kahne (2006).

2004: Mayfield won at RIR and jumped from 14th into the top 10 to supplant Kahne in the Chase.

2005: Newman moved from 11th into the top 10 to bounce Jamie McMurray from the Chase.

2006: Kahne rose from 11th into the top 10 to knock out Stewart from playoff contention.

Since the playoff field was expanded to 12 drivers in 2007, no one has made the leap from 13th or worse into the top 12.

Vickers' average finish at Richmond is 27.8 (one top-10 in 10 starts); only Darlington (28.6) and Homestead (31.7) are worse.

Busch's average finish at RIR is 6.1 (one win among seven top-five finishes in nine races) -- his best average at Cup Series tracks.