Ten drivers, eight spots, 122 points, and one race

By Bill Kimm, NASCAR.COM
September 10, 2009
10:50 AM EDT

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After 25 races comprising of 6,936 laps, 9,706 miles, 468 lead changes and 214 cautions -- 400 laps is all that separates the contenders from the pretenders in the 2009 Sprint Cup Series season.

Late Saturday night, when the checkered flag flies on the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway (7 p.m. ET, ABC), we will know the 12 drivers who will race for the Cup title in the Chase.

Four already have locked up their spots -- Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin -- and therefore have nothing to lose. But for 10 drivers, only eight spots are left and with 122 points being all that separates them, Saturday sets up to be one amazing night.

This week, By the Numbers focuses exclusively on those looking to earn a Chase berth.

Inside the Data

Chase clinch scenarios (Will clinch if finishes xx or better)

Driver	Zero laps led	Led a lap	Most laps led

Carl Edwards	24th	25th	27th
Kasey Kahne	21st	23rd	24th
Kurt Busch	20th	22nd	24th
Juan Montoya	18th	20th	21st
Ryan Newman	16th	17th	19th
Mark Martin	12th	14th	15th
Greg Biffle	11th	13th	15th
Matt Kenseth	1st	2nd	3rd

DID YOU KNOW?

0Since the Chase expanded to 12 drivers in 2007, no one has raced their way in at Richmond. That's not to say it is impossible. A driver has raced his way in three times: Jeremy Mayfield, 2004; Ryan Newman, 2005; and Kasey Kahne, 2006.

CHASING THE CHASE

5. Carl EdwardsAvg. RIR finish: 19.0 -- Edwards is winless at Richmond and has just three top-10s in 10 starts. He's only led once at the track and has one DNF. Edwards needs to finish 24th or better and in three instances has failed to do so at Richmond, including this year's spring race when he came home 26th. Edwards is coming off a disappointing 37th at Atlanta but before that finished in the top 20 for 13 consecutive races.

6. Kasey KahneAvg. RIR finish: 18.5 -- Kahne dominated the 2005 spring race; he led 242 laps and won from the pole. Since then, he has just four top-10s in eight starts. Kahne needs to finish 21st or better and has failed to do so in five of his 11 career starts at the track, including a 29th in this year's spring race. Momentum is high for the No. 9 team, though, as they are heading to Richmond coming off a victory at Atlanta.

7. Kurt BuschAvg. RIR finish: 18.7 -- Busch has one victory, two top-fives and five top-10s in 17 Richmond starts. Lately, Busch has been pretty good at RIR. In his past five starts, he has four top-12 finishes, including a fifth and a ninth. Busch needs to finish 20th or better to lock himself in the Chase and he has done that in 10 of his 17 starts. He comes off a disappointing DNF in Atlanta that gives him two crashes in the past three Cup events but a 12th in this year's spring race at RIR should give him the confidence he needs.

8. Juan MontoyaAvg. RIR finish: 27.8 -- Montoya has just five starts at the track but they can be telling. He has just one top-10 and two finishes on the lead lap. That top-10 came in this year's spring race so that could be a sign he is figuring out Richmond. He needs to finish 18th or better and has done that once at RIR. On the bright side, he has 11 top-20s in the past 12 Cup races, including five top-six finishes.

9. Ryan NewmanAvg. RIR finish: 11.7 -- Richmond is Newman's third-best track in terms of average finish. In 15 starts, Newman has a victory, five top-fives and nine top-10s. On the down side, he has four finishes of 20th or worse, including a 33rd in this race last year. This spring, Newman led 45 laps and finished fourth, which would be more than enough to lock him into the Chase. Newman currently is in a streak of three consecutive top-15s, including a ninth last week at Atlanta.

10. Mark MartinAvg. RIR finish: 11.9 -- Martin is among the top 10 all time at Richmond with 16 top-fives and 26 top-10s. Martin has one win at Richmond but it was way back in 1990. Recently, it doesn't seem Martin has missed a step. In the past 10 starts at RIR, Martin has an average finish of 10.0 with five top-fives, including a fifth in this year's spring race. Martin has two consecutive top-five finishes thanks to a second at Bristol and fifth at Atlanta. In four short-track starts this season, Martin has a sixth (Bristol), a seventh (Martinsville), a fifth (Richmond) and a second (Bristol).

11. Greg BiffleAvg. RIR finish: 15.8 -- Biffle needs to finish 11th or better at Richmond to lock up his Chase spot and unfortunately for him, he just doesn't do it very often at RIR -- at least not recently. Biffle's career at Richmond is all about trends. In the first four races he averaged a 22.7 finish. In the next five he never finished worse than eighth with two top-fives. In the past five races, his best finish is 14th. Overall, he averages a 20.6 finish. Biffle has two consecutive top-10 finishes and he led laps at both Bristol and Atlanta.

12. Matt KensethAvg. RIR finish: 16.7 -- In 19 RIR starts, Kenseth has one win, three top-fives and nine top-10s, but he also has six finishes of 28th or worse, including two of the past three races at Richmond. If there is a silver lining for Kenseth, since 2002 his fall race has been better than his spring race four of the seven years, including a win and a second-place finish. Kenseth is in a streak of six consecutive top-15 finishes but that might not be enough to keep him in the top 12.

13. Brian VickersAvg. RIR finish: 27.8 -- In a word, Vickers is just horrible at Richmond. In 10 starts he has just one top-10 -- an eighth in his first start -- and eight finishes of 24th or worse. On the bright side, he has started on the pole twice and in the spring race this year he finished 15th, his second-best result. The good news for Vickers is he currently is in an eight-race streak of top-12 finishes extended with a seventh last week at Atlanta. He is 20 points behind Matt Kenseth for the 12th and final spot in the Chase.

14. Kyle BuschAvg. RIR finish: 6.1 -- Richmond is Busch's best track in terms of average finish and also leads all active drivers there in average finish. In nine RIR starts, Busch has a win, three seconds, two fourths and a fifth. He has led laps in all but three races and is the defending track winner, having taken the checkered in the spring. Of the four short-track races run this season, Busch has three wins. On the bad side, Busch's past two fall starts at Richmond have led to finishes of 20th and 15th. In his past eight Cup starts, Busch has just two top-five finishes meaning he will have to go against history if he is to make up the 37 points he is behind 12th place Matt Kenseth.

Also

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Richmond International Raceway

Drivers with multiple wins at the track

Driver	Races	Wins	Top-fives	Top-10s

Richard Petty	63	13	34	41
Bobby Allison	38	7	23	28
David Pearson	13	6	9	9
Rusty Wallace	44	6	22	30
Darrell Waltrip	51	6	22	33
Dale Earnhardt	44	5	25	33
Jimmie Johnson	15	3	4	4
Joe Weatherly	9	3	4	4
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	20	3	8	10
Tony Stewart	21	3	9	15
Cale Yarborough	22	3	12	12
Terry Labonte	54	3	13	28
Ernie Irvan	20	2	3	4
Ricky Rudd	55	2	20	28
Speedy Thompson	5	2	3	4
Neil Bonnett	21	2	7	17
Davey Allison	13	2	5	6
Benny Parsons	29	2	11	19
Dale Jarrett	39	2	11	12
Lee Petty	7	2	5	6
Cotton Owens	9	2	4	6
Jeff Gordon	33	2	12	21
Dave Marcis	53	2	9	21

• Bold: Active drivers

Sprint Cup Series

Standings

Pos.	+/-	Driver	Points	Behind

1.	--	Tony Stewart	3,694	--
2.	+1	Jeff Gordon	3,457	-237
3.	-1	Jimmie Johnson	3,404	-290
4.	--	Denny Hamlin	3,296	-398
5.	--	Carl Edwards	3,162	-532
6.	+5	Kasey Kahne	3,153	-541
7.	-1	Kurt Busch	3,152	-542
8.	+1	Juan Montoya	3,145	-549
9.	-2	Ryan Newman	3,138	-556
10.	--	Mark Martin	3,126	-568
11.	-3	Greg Biffle	3,125	-569
12.	--	Matt Kenseth	3,077	-617