Fate of four drivers most likely on line at Richmond (cont'd)

3. Is this the race where Denny Hamlin finally scores that long-awaited first Cup victory on his hometown track?

David Caraviello: Hamlin has led what, 40,000 laps in his past few Richmond races combined? He clearly bleeds for the place, and I'm sure he'll have all his friends and family on site as he usually does. But the bigger key: he's locked into the Chase, which means he can go all-out for the win. You can bet he will.

A cut tire ruined Denny Hamlin's run at Richmond in May 2008.

Denny Hamlin

Richmond Results

Date	Start	Finish	Laps	Led
May '06	7	2	400/400	19
Sept. '06	1	15	399/400	19
May '07	6	3	400/400	12
Sept. '07	5	6	400/400	17
May '08	1	24	407/410	381
Sept. '08	11	3	400/400	4
May '09	3	14	400/400	148

Raygan Swan: Man, he has come close so many times so for him to win, the crew has to be on point. Meanwhile, when he has a good car he seems to be flawless on his home track. I think he can pull it off. This track fits his driving style perfectly.

Joe Menzer: Well, let's see. He's got a second, two thirds and a sixth in his past six races at RIR. He's also had some terrible luck, and some mishaps of his own doing. But he has to go in as one of the favorites. The fact that he goes in locked in for the Chase is key. He will be going all-out for the win indeed. He can use the bonus points in addition to wanting to please the hometown crowd.

David Caraviello: But as we all know, wins never come easy for a driver on his hometown track (see: Stewart, Tony, at Indianapolis). He'll get one, eventually. Probably more than one. But the spring race seems to make more sense. The fall race is so crazy with the Chase, there are so many variables ... it just strikes me as the tougher one for anybody to win.

Joe Menzer: Yet somebody has to win it. Why not Hamlin? I'll bite on the question. I'll go out on a limb and say he's my pick to do it.

David Caraviello: I do think it's going to be him, Stewart or Jimmie Johnson. One of those three guys. Jeff Gordon just struggles there for whatever reason, and everybody else is going to be focused on staying out of trouble and getting into the Chase. The days of someone doing what Jeremy Mayfield once did, racing their way into the Chase, seem to be behind us.

Joe Menzer: Wait a minute. Weren't we just talking about Kyle Busch and/or Brian Vickers possibly racing their way into the Chase? I guess you're right, though. They just have to beat each other as well as a couple of others in front of them.

Raygan Swan: My pick is, as you might guess, Stewart. He's looking for that top seed when the Chase starts in New Hampshire. Denny isn't my pick, but it sounds like he could use something positive in his life, some better karma after his Lexus was stolen!

David Caraviello: I hate it when somebody steals my Lexus. Then I've got to walk all the way down to the front gate and ask the security people to go find it again. Really interrupts snooker night at my estate.

Raygan Swan: Hilarious, David! Give me a second while I Google snooker.

Joe Menzer: We all know Caraviello lies about his snooker game and "his estate." He already has offered evidence that he cuts his own grass -- at least occasionally. That doesn't happen at an "estate" where snooker is played. How many wins do you have in snooker? And what the hell is snooker, anyway? It sounds like a game where you could lose your religion in a hurry.

Raygan Swan: It looks like some watered-down version of pool. Something with a cue. I lose my religion talking about Danica! Now I can't focus on Hamlin. Hold on, let me imagine him half-dressed. ... OK , I'm ready again.

David Caraviello: Now, now, don't be too hard on snooker, old boy! Picked it up at Raffles one night while stationed in Singapore. Lovely game. Very gentlemanly. Some snooker, a Cohiba and a little brandy make for a perfect night.

Joe Menzer: I'm sure that's exactly what Denny Hamlin has planned for a victory party if he wins at Richmond on Saturday night!

Raygan Swan: More like KFC, Bud and Cornhole!

The opinions expressed are solely those of the participants.