Fate of four drivers most likely on line at Richmond

1. Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, Brian Vickers, Kyle Busch. At Richmond, who gets in and who gets knocked out?

Joe Menzer: Call it a hunch, but I'm going to say Biffle and Busch get in, Vickers and Kenseth get shuffled out. I'm not basing it on anything more than pure instinct -- and sometimes my instinct stinks.

Raygan Swan: This is like trying to predict Indiana weather, too difficult with too many unknown factors. I want to say Kyle gets in. He has the best Driver Rating, his team has things figured out at the short tracks, he is the spring winner. Vickers, not so much. I don't know about Biffle.

David Caraviello: A few weeks ago, I would have bet you cash money that Kenseth would stay in and Busch would get in. Now I'm not so sure. As shocking as it sounds, I'm beginning to wonder if Kenseth is going to miss the Chase for the first time in his career. Seems like every race they're good, but not quite good enough. And Kyle just hasn't been able to make up the ground I thought he would.

Joe Menzer: So you're saying Biffle and Vickers?

David Caraviello: Vickers is driving like he's on a mission. Given that he's only 20 points back, and given Kenseth's finishes as of late, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the No. 83 makes up the 20 points on Saturday night and those two switch spots.

Joe Menzer: The Biff actually has struggled at RIR of late. He hasn't finished higher than 17th in the past five races there -- when with the old car, he used to be a top-10 lock. Then again, Kenseth has only one top-10 finish at RIR in something like his past seven starts there. I guess I'm starting to think the stats at least back up my "hunch" about him falling out.

David Caraviello: But Biffle has what, 48 points to play with? That doesn't seem like a lot, but it is if you can play conservatively and stay out of trouble -- no easy task at RIR -- it's a little bit of a cushion. I'd expect a lot of these bubble guys to be very tentative Saturday, with the win going to someone who's already locked in.

Raygan Swan: Right, David, someone who is already locked in is going to win this weekend, not the bubble boys. They'll not be taking major risks. The thing that screwed up my list of 12 was Kasey Kahne. I didn't think he would pull if off in the end, but his two race wins and a few random top-fives have done it for him. He was the bubble boy last season, not Kenseth or Kyle.

David Caraviello: Yeah, Raygan, I think a lot of people were looking at Kahne and figuring he'd fade. Even he joked after his win Sunday night about listening to satellite radio and hearing all the people who picked him to miss it. I guess he's showing them.

Raygan Swan: Yeah. And Vickers has a prayer to make the Chase, even though I don't think he will do anything with it if he makes it. And neither will Kyle, for that matter. I don't know what his deal is but he won't be a championship contender even if he makes the Chase this weekend. Another thing to ponder: Kyle and Vickers are talking about "winning" this race to make the Chase. Umm, Tony Stewart has three wins and Denny Hamlin is the favorite. Good luck with that, guys.

Joe Menzer: I think I'll stick with my original opening comment. I think the Biff hangs on and KB puts on a rush to get in. This is a place where Kyle won in May, and he certainly will have the motivation to get to the front and try to stay there. Then again, doesn't he always?

David Caraviello: I will say, it shapes up as an interesting night. Remember two years ago, almost every driver had clinched after Fontana, which then was the race before RIR. We thought, well, so much for drama. Things certainly have changed. Even up to like ninth place, the point gaps are still relatively small. Although I don't think it's going to happen, a few guys could get booted if they have rough nights.

Raygan Swan: True, and I really want to see Kyle in the Chase. He is too much of a personality not to make it. Vickers doesn't exactly crack me up, and the WB is premiering its new 'tween shows this weekend, so Kahne's audience will be on another channel.

Joe Menzer: I will add that I just don't see Vickers getting in. He is not very good at Richmond. In fact, I'll throw some more stats out there: in 10 career starts at RIR, he has exactly one top-10. It came in his very first RIR start in '04, and in eight of the nine races since he's failed to finish better than 24th.

David Caraviello: But you don't have to necessarily be good there to get in. You have to be careful and lucky. Good helps, of course, but Brian really only has to outrun one guy. Not 42.

Joe Menzer: What would be great is if it gets late in the race and Vickers and Kyle are battling near each other with a chance to get in. Now that could be a classic!

• Win-to-get-in easier said than done
• Chase bubble: How easy is it to pop? (Continued)