Fate of four drivers most likely on line at Richmond

1. Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, Brian Vickers, Kyle Busch. At Richmond, who gets in and who gets knocked out?

Joe Menzer: Call it a hunch, but I'm going to say Biffle and Busch get in, Vickers and Kenseth get shuffled out. I'm not basing it on anything more than pure instinct -- and sometimes my instinct stinks.

Raygan Swan: This is like trying to predict Indiana weather, too difficult with too many unknown factors. I want to say Kyle gets in. He has the best Driver Rating, his team has things figured out at the short tracks, he is the spring winner. Vickers, not so much. I don't know about Biffle.

David Caraviello: A few weeks ago, I would have bet you cash money that Kenseth would stay in and Busch would get in. Now I'm not so sure. As shocking as it sounds, I'm beginning to wonder if Kenseth is going to miss the Chase for the first time in his career. Seems like every race they're good, but not quite good enough. And Kyle just hasn't been able to make up the ground I thought he would.

Joe Menzer: So you're saying Biffle and Vickers?

David Caraviello: Vickers is driving like he's on a mission. Given that he's only 20 points back, and given Kenseth's finishes as of late, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the No. 83 makes up the 20 points on Saturday night and those two switch spots.

Joe Menzer: The Biff actually has struggled at RIR of late. He hasn't finished higher than 17th in the past five races there -- when with the old car, he used to be a top-10 lock. Then again, Kenseth has only one top-10 finish at RIR in something like his past seven starts there. I guess I'm starting to think the stats at least back up my "hunch" about him falling out.

David Caraviello: But Biffle has what, 48 points to play with? That doesn't seem like a lot, but it is if you can play conservatively and stay out of trouble -- no easy task at RIR -- it's a little bit of a cushion. I'd expect a lot of these bubble guys to be very tentative Saturday, with the win going to someone who's already locked in.

Raygan Swan: Right, David, someone who is already locked in is going to win this weekend, not the bubble boys. They'll not be taking major risks. The thing that screwed up my list of 12 was Kasey Kahne. I didn't think he would pull if off in the end, but his two race wins and a few random top-fives have done it for him. He was the bubble boy last season, not Kenseth or Kyle.

David Caraviello: Yeah, Raygan, I think a lot of people were looking at Kahne and figuring he'd fade. Even he joked after his win Sunday night about listening to satellite radio and hearing all the people who picked him to miss it. I guess he's showing them.

Raygan Swan: Yeah. And Vickers has a prayer to make the Chase, even though I don't think he will do anything with it if he makes it. And neither will Kyle, for that matter. I don't know what his deal is but he won't be a championship contender even if he makes the Chase this weekend. Another thing to ponder: Kyle and Vickers are talking about "winning" this race to make the Chase. Umm, Tony Stewart has three wins and Denny Hamlin is the favorite. Good luck with that, guys.

Joe Menzer: I think I'll stick with my original opening comment. I think the Biff hangs on and KB puts on a rush to get in. This is a place where Kyle won in May, and he certainly will have the motivation to get to the front and try to stay there. Then again, doesn't he always?

David Caraviello: I will say, it shapes up as an interesting night. Remember two years ago, almost every driver had clinched after Fontana, which then was the race before RIR. We thought, well, so much for drama. Things certainly have changed. Even up to like ninth place, the point gaps are still relatively small. Although I don't think it's going to happen, a few guys could get booted if they have rough nights.

Raygan Swan: True, and I really want to see Kyle in the Chase. He is too much of a personality not to make it. Vickers doesn't exactly crack me up, and the WB is premiering its new 'tween shows this weekend, so Kahne's audience will be on another channel.

Joe Menzer: I will add that I just don't see Vickers getting in. He is not very good at Richmond. In fact, I'll throw some more stats out there: in 10 career starts at RIR, he has exactly one top-10. It came in his very first RIR start in '04, and in eight of the nine races since he's failed to finish better than 24th.

David Caraviello: But you don't have to necessarily be good there to get in. You have to be careful and lucky. Good helps, of course, but Brian really only has to outrun one guy. Not 42.

Joe Menzer: What would be great is if it gets late in the race and Vickers and Kyle are battling near each other with a chance to get in. Now that could be a classic!

• Win-to-get-in easier said than done
• Chase bubble: How easy is it to pop?

2. Tony Stewart says Danica Patrick is coming to NASCAR, possibly starting with a Nationwide ride on IndyCar off-weekends. Will this plan work?

Joe Menzer: I defer to Raygs, our resident IndyCar expert. But I did like some of what Tony was saying as far as how she intended to do it. She seems to have a realistic approach where she would dip her toes in and see how she likes it, go slow, and get some experience.

Danica Patrick: Driver and celebrity

David Caraviello: OK, let me say, we all have our doubts about Danica's ability to cut it in NASCAR. We've Smacked about that before. But this plan is very smart. She's showing a lot of respect for the sport, easing into the shallow end of the pool instead of just jumping in the deep end like too many of her open-wheel brethren have done. Give her credit here. If she's going to do it, she's at least going to do it the right way.

Raygan Swan: With only 17 races on the IndyCar schedule I guess it is possible. The travel will be crazy, and she'll have less time to pose for FHM spreads in her underwear, but yes, it is possible. I appreciate her gradual approach, though. At least she is being realistic.

Joe Menzer: I have never doubted that at some point she would give NASCAR a try. I just wasn't sure on what level, or if she would be realistic about working her way up through the ranks. If she's willing to do that and pay her dues, she might end up doing OK. But let's be clear about this: if she runs a handful of Nationwide races next year, that's just the tip of the iceberg on her learning curve. You're talking about a three-year process, minimum, before she'd be ready to succeed on any level in NASCAR.

David Caraviello: If she does what we think she's going to do -- the full IndyCar schedule, and Nationwide races on off-weekends -- she'll be following Stewart's transition to a T. And she'd better get used to the travel. If she does NASCAR full time, there will be plenty of it.

Raygan Swan: That's where I think she'll struggle, the demands on her time. She has a comfy deal in IndyCars right now, time to work on book deals and talk shows and commercials. All that goes out the window. But I don't think the Nationwide Series is exactly a good starting point for her. If she is going to do a developmental program, then start in the Camping World West or East series, ARCA and Trucks. Nationwide as we all know is still Cup Lite. Yes, it's the old car (for now), but it is still highly competitive.

Joe Menzer: She will not do that, I don't think. Sam Hornish didn't. As DC2 pointed out, Tony didn't. She will not start out that low, nor would NASCAR want her to necessarily. NASCAR wouldn't be able to milk the marketing cow that is Danica Patrick if she started out in ARCA, and she would have everything to lose with little to gain. (Sorry, didn't mean to call her a cow, but you know what I mean.)

David Caraviello: I wouldn't be surprised to see her in a few ARCA or Truck events. But Camping World East? Come on. She's still a major-league race car driver. That might be asking her to stoop too low. Given some of the hacks in the Nationwide field these days, I think that is enough of a starting point.

Danica talk

• Junior showing interest
• Smoke offers advice
• Jimmie chimes in
• Where to start?

Raygan Swan: Well, guys, tell that to all the other teenage girls in those low series. Are you saying she could jump in a Camping World East race and win? If not, then it's not too low for her. Neither is ARCA. Then send her straight into NASCAR and watch her fail like the majority of females have

Joe Menzer: Danica Patrick is not "all the other teenage girls." She is a marketing powerhouse. And if she did jump into ARCA or Camping World East and fail to win, then where is she? Nope, that will not happen. She also is a more experienced driver than developmental types. Now I will say that she might benefit from driving a few Truck races. Folks say that's more like the new car than the current Nationwide car.

David Caraviello: Raygan, come on. She's not a teenage girl. Listen, I have as many doubts about her as anyone. But she's a race winner in a major American series and a habitual top runner in the Indy 500. You can't ask her to start out at that low a level. Nationwide is fine. That's what it's there for. As long as she doesn't jump straight into Cup, I'll be OK with it.

Raygan Swan: It won't happen because of marketing plans and sponsors, not because she is above it. She's not above it. I'm not saying she isn't a talented open-wheel driver but when has she ever driven a front engine, full-bodied stock car? And Dario ran ARCA. Didn't Juan Montoya, as well?

David Caraviello: Yeah, a few races. But a handful of ARCA races if different from Camping World East. Listen, once you get past the Cup moonlighters, the talent pool in Nationwide is thin. That's a fine jumping-off point. It worked for Tony. Oh, and guess what ... with Brad Keselowski moving to Penske, there's a GoDaddy-sponsored Nationwide car at JR Motorsports just looking for a driver for next year! What a coincidence!

Raygan Swan: If Juan isn't above ARCA, then neither is Danica. I'm over the GoDaddy crap. And don't get me wrong, I want her to succeed for the sake of the sport, but I don't want to see her process rushed. I'm not saying she has to spend an entire season in the Camping World East Series. I just want to see a genuine development program under her so she doesn't have an excuse if she fails and has to retreat back to the IndyCar ranks like some of her counterparts!

David Caraviello: Montoya has run two -- count 'em -- two career ARCA starts, at Talladega and Iowa in 2006. Danica might run a couple, as well. Her plan is the right one, people. As long as she's not jumping into Cup, I'm OK with it. Goodness, what do you want her to do, Raygan, go run late-model stocks in the weekly division at Myrtle Beach Speedway? Not going to happen.

Joe Menzer: If she and whatever sponsors get behind her can be patient, this is a three-year process, minimum. But when have drivers and car owners ever shown much patience? That's the problem. Here's the other thing: you go and run too many ARCA events or whatever out of the public eye, and suddenly you run the risk of losing your celebrity relevancy. She loses that, she loses her marketability. Then again, she's always walked a fine line between wanting folks to respect her as a racer while posing on the side as a swimsuit model.

Raygan Swan: At the end of the day, I don't care what she does, I just don't want to see her half-dressed on a poster board at Wal-Mart pitching whatever sponsor she ends up with.

David Caraviello: I know. We'll start her out in figure eight racing! Or a demolition derby! That'll get her ready for the action she'll face on the Nationwide tour!

• Stewart says Danica has sights set on NASCAR
• Montoya: Danica would have some work to do

3. Is this the race where Denny Hamlin finally scores that long-awaited first Cup victory on his hometown track?

David Caraviello: Hamlin has led what, 40,000 laps in his past few Richmond races combined? He clearly bleeds for the place, and I'm sure he'll have all his friends and family on site as he usually does. But the bigger key: he's locked into the Chase, which means he can go all-out for the win. You can bet he will.

A cut tire ruined Denny Hamlin's run at Richmond in May 2008.

Denny Hamlin

Richmond Results

Date	Start	Finish	Laps	Led
May '06	7	2	400/400	19
Sept. '06	1	15	399/400	19
May '07	6	3	400/400	12
Sept. '07	5	6	400/400	17
May '08	1	24	407/410	381
Sept. '08	11	3	400/400	4
May '09	3	14	400/400	148

Raygan Swan: Man, he has come close so many times so for him to win, the crew has to be on point. Meanwhile, when he has a good car he seems to be flawless on his home track. I think he can pull it off. This track fits his driving style perfectly.

Joe Menzer: Well, let's see. He's got a second, two thirds and a sixth in his past six races at RIR. He's also had some terrible luck, and some mishaps of his own doing. But he has to go in as one of the favorites. The fact that he goes in locked in for the Chase is key. He will be going all-out for the win indeed. He can use the bonus points in addition to wanting to please the hometown crowd.

David Caraviello: But as we all know, wins never come easy for a driver on his hometown track (see: Stewart, Tony, at Indianapolis). He'll get one, eventually. Probably more than one. But the spring race seems to make more sense. The fall race is so crazy with the Chase, there are so many variables ... it just strikes me as the tougher one for anybody to win.

Joe Menzer: Yet somebody has to win it. Why not Hamlin? I'll bite on the question. I'll go out on a limb and say he's my pick to do it.

David Caraviello: I do think it's going to be him, Stewart or Jimmie Johnson. One of those three guys. Jeff Gordon just struggles there for whatever reason, and everybody else is going to be focused on staying out of trouble and getting into the Chase. The days of someone doing what Jeremy Mayfield once did, racing their way into the Chase, seem to be behind us.

Joe Menzer: Wait a minute. Weren't we just talking about Kyle Busch and/or Brian Vickers possibly racing their way into the Chase? I guess you're right, though. They just have to beat each other as well as a couple of others in front of them.

Raygan Swan: My pick is, as you might guess, Stewart. He's looking for that top seed when the Chase starts in New Hampshire. Denny isn't my pick, but it sounds like he could use something positive in his life, some better karma after his Lexus was stolen!

David Caraviello: I hate it when somebody steals my Lexus. Then I've got to walk all the way down to the front gate and ask the security people to go find it again. Really interrupts snooker night at my estate.

Raygan Swan: Hilarious, David! Give me a second while I Google snooker.

Joe Menzer: We all know Caraviello lies about his snooker game and "his estate." He already has offered evidence that he cuts his own grass -- at least occasionally. That doesn't happen at an "estate" where snooker is played. How many wins do you have in snooker? And what the hell is snooker, anyway? It sounds like a game where you could lose your religion in a hurry.

Raygan Swan: It looks like some watered-down version of pool. Something with a cue. I lose my religion talking about Danica! Now I can't focus on Hamlin. Hold on, let me imagine him half-dressed. ... OK , I'm ready again.

David Caraviello: Now, now, don't be too hard on snooker, old boy! Picked it up at Raffles one night while stationed in Singapore. Lovely game. Very gentlemanly. Some snooker, a Cohiba and a little brandy make for a perfect night.

Joe Menzer: I'm sure that's exactly what Denny Hamlin has planned for a victory party if he wins at Richmond on Saturday night!

Raygan Swan: More like KFC, Bud and Cornhole!

The opinions expressed are solely those of the participants.