Smack: NASCAR took the easy way out on schedule (cont'd)

3. We all know about Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson, but outside of the points leader and the three-time champion, who's the biggest threat to win the Chase?

Dave Rodman: OK, so that means we've placed Mark Martin in that third co-favorite's role -- because after all, he is the points leader, right? That will make this a debate on the relative merits of the Chase format versus the standard championship format. Trust me, we don't want to go there. It would rile "the people" up too much.

Joe Menzer: Technically, Martin is the No. 1 seed. The regular-season points leader was and remains Tony Stewart. There is a difference.

David Caraviello: I've thought all along that this is a three-horse race: Stewart, Johnson, and Mark Martin. Right now, I'd add Denny Hamlin to that list. But that's it. Juan Montoya to me is a very dangerous dark horse, because they played it so conservatively the first 26 races and we really don't know what they have. But right now, I think those four guys are the only ones who can win the title.

Who'll take it?

Bill Kimm and Jason Schoellen make their predictions on who will be the 2009 Cup Series champion.

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Joe Menzer: I think you have left one very possible threat out of the mix in Jeff Gordon. And since I'm not worried about "riling the people up," I'm going to jump right in and contend that this is what I like about the Chase. Right now we're not sure who will contend.

David Caraviello: Hey, I love Jeff Gordon. But I also believe you have to be able to win races to win the Chase. He hasn't won a race since Texas in the spring.

Joe Menzer: I mean, I do believe Stewart and Johnson will be right there at the end along with at least one other. But DC2 is right about Montoya -- and Hamlin. I happen to think something will happen to take Martin out of the mix by Homestead. Just a hunch. But it's interesting. And it's uncertain. And under the old format, it wouldn't have been.

Dave Rodman: Well, I hate to do it -- but I'm gonna wait until Kansas -- or after Kansas. On the one hand, there are guys who have a lot of strong points in the Chase -- but with what it took to get into this Chase more than any other since maybe the first one, I believe this truly is a 12-horse race.

David Caraviello: Please. This is not a 12-horse race. Hey, yes, I understand everybody has a chance. I understand the point gaps are artificially narrowed. But in the Jimmie era, you have to be able to win multiple races to win the Chase. How many guys in this field can realistically do that? Hey, somebody may prove me wrong. But I think it's four. Period. That's your championship field.

Dave Rodman: Johnson is still the prohibitive favorite, until he proves he's not, or someone rips that out of his hands. On the one hand, Tony built a great cushion in 10 weeks, but then for the last three he's been a shade better than mediocre. I've felt Gordon would be a weapon this season since early in the year, and nothing's happened to change my opinion. And if you want to talk about consistent performance, Mark Martin rivals his Hendrick teammate Johnson, for sure.

Joe Menzer: Listen, two years ago Clint Bowyer won at New Hampshire to start off the Chase and threw himself into contention out of seemingly nowhere. Last year Greg Biffle did it. Yes, you have to win races. But you don't have to have a last name of Stewart or Johnson to do it and get in the mix.

David Caraviello: Joe, refresh my memory, what were those Sprint Cup championship celebrations like for Bowyer and Biffle?

Joe Menzer: They didn't win it all, but they did contend. And they did make it more interesting to watch in the final 10 weeks. That is why the Chase is good for the sport. That's all I'm saying. Oh, and by the way, per our earlier discussion, I don't seem to be hearing either of you tout Kurt Busch as a contender going into this Chase.

Dave Rodman: Denny Hamlin has almost pulled a Johnson-like prelude to the Chase. He's bad fast at New Hampshire and they are on a roll. If he comes out of the gate quickly, anyone who wants to contend will have to keep pace. You can't disallow Edwards or Biffle, and David, I agree with you on Juan. Let's see how he starts up as a race horse rather than a point-churner and we'll know if he's a legitimate threat.

David Caraviello: This is not about whether the Chase is good for the sport. I think we all agree with that, even though the TV ratings for Richmond look abysmal. This is about who can win it. Everybody's saying all the right things right now about how anyone can win it. Sorry, I don't agree with that. There are some guys who were lucky to get in. There are some guys who will be racing for 12th. The pool of genuine contenders here is smaller than people think it is.

Joe Menzer: Edwards will not get it done this year. There is no compelling reason to think that they will suddenly start winning races when they haven't to this point. Montoya is considered the dark horse because they kept hinting that they were holding back and playing it conservative until they got into the Chase. Now we'll see if they really were or not. But you are right about Hamlin. Plus he's bursting with confidence.

David Caraviello: Much like myself as I dominate yet another Smack session.

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Dave Rodman: Kurt knows how to win a Chase championship. He and Pat Tryson have motivation, as if they needed more. I hadn't gotten around to him yet because I'm telling you -- what most of those guys said at Richmond was true. I can't count anyone out. The longest shot, I think, would be Ryan Newman's team -- but only because they've been a little erratic on the performance side, and a 10-race Chase doesn't really allow you the window to do that. When you think of what Vickers and Red Bull have done the last 10 races -- whether they were supposed to or not -- they are blithely unaware they're not supposed to succeed, and in a Chase format that could spell top-five at the end of the season.

David Caraviello: We're not talking about top-five. We're talking about winning the championship. There's a huge difference there.

Dave Rodman: It's my opinion there are no less than six legitimate title contenders. Let me know if you want a list, because I'll have to do something with that stupid Chase Tracker game at some point before Sunday.

Joe Menzer: As for your silly comment about yourself, DC2, all I can say is that you once claimed to be dominant in pickup basketball as well. Nothing you say about yourself can be trusted.

David Caraviello: Joe, I meant to ask -- has your face healed from that last time I dunked on you? The imprint left by the basketball looked pretty nasty.

Joe Menzer: Caraviello is dreaming again (that wouldn't even happen in Nerf hoops). And back on the subject at hand, hey, the last 10 weeks of the regular season ... Tony was first in points, Hamlin a close second and Vickers third. Just for the record. Also for the record, the ratings for performance in this Smack just came in. They are ... 1. Menzer; 2. No one; Tied for last: Roadman and Caraviello.

David Caraviello: Those are just the overnights. Wait until the national numbers come in!

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.