Smack: NASCAR took the easy way out on schedule
RPM should succeed moving to Ford, Chase down to four
By NASCAR.COM
September 17, 2009
03:14 PM EDT
September 17, 2009
03:14 PM EDT
type size: + -
1. The 2010 Sprint Cup schedule came out this week, and aside for a few simple date swaps, there were no major changes. Should there be any?
David Caraviello: Yes. For years I've advocated a shake-up in the Chase races. The 10 events we have now are there not because they're the 10 best to determine the title, but because they were lucky enough to be that late on the schedule in the pre-Chase era. To me, that's something that needs to be corrected.
Joe Menzer: Where is Kentucky, dadgumit? Bruton Smith is waiting, and so am I. But the truth of that matter is that there will not be a Cup race there until that lawsuit brought on NASCAR by previous owners is resolved. And it hasn't been yet.
Dave Rodman: Of course. I'll beat the old, dead horse until I die. But there should be black-and-white parameters for having Sprint Cup races. Anyone should be able to apply, if you meet the criteria. If you fail to meet the parameters, you're off the schedule for a year.
David Caraviello: Yeah, Joe, Kentucky is killing itself with that lawsuit appeal. The longer it goes on, the longer that facility will have to wait. Plus, they have a seating expansion they have to finish, too. They're not ready for a Sprint Cup date, not yet. Maybe one day. Not now.
Joe Menzer: The problem with shaking up the schedule too much -- and this is what the track operators will tell you -- is that these tracks plan so far in advance and get comfortable with promoting certain dates. But Dave is right. If they aren't working in a particular place, yank 'em.
David Caraviello: Joe, they didn't have too much trouble yanking dates during the Rockingham-Darlington realignment era that drove so many fans away from the sport. But I'm not talking about yanking them. I'm talking about rearranging them. I mean, I know the place loves its August weekend, but the fact that Bristol is not in the Chase is ludicrous. The fact that the Chase starts in New Hampshire is equally as crazy. This thing needs to be tinkered with, and nobody seems to want to do it.
Dave Rodman: Part of the business plan for these tracks is they get to hold people's ticket money for a long time -- and make money with it, you could argue, for doing nothing. I don't fault them for that, but that is a poor excuse for not diversifying the schedule. Confessing that ignorance, and knowing you guys as I do -- give me the three least-amenable NFL venues, in no particular order. There is a question at the end of this trail, I promise.
David Caraviello: Well, the old Texas Stadium would have been up there, but it's gone now. And I'm sure Giants Stadium is on its last leg, but it's on the way out. Candlestick Park in San Francisco. Many NFL stadiums are relatively new, so I don't know if there's an accurate comparison there.
Joe Menzer: Agreed on that, DC2. Maybe the Oakland Raiders ... do they still play in that dump they used to call the Coliseum? I do fear we are comparing apples and, well, grapefruits here, however.
Dave Rodman: You could be right. But my point would be that you don't hold the Super Bowl at one of your three worst venues. I won't point fingers (unless you make me), but that's where we're at with the Chase schedule, both in quality of venues and diversity. I still think the Chase should be both classic short tracks, a three-quarter-miler, a road course, a speedway, two longer short tracks (since they now consider everything from Darlington on down to be a short track), and three intermediates.
Joe Menzer: I like the variety Roadman proposes. In fact, I think I wrote a column about this last year -- proposing that the season start and finish at Daytona. Carl Edwards told me I was crazy -- not the first one to do so, nor will he be the last.
Plan your trip
NASCAR released its 2010 Cup, Nationwide and Truck schedules and while things look the same, some big changes took place.
David Caraviello: They got lucky with Richmond. It's the perfect place to end the regular season. But could you imagine if the 26th race had happened to fall on Pocono or California? That eve-of-the-Chase race would be nothing like it is today. That's the way it is with a lot of these Chase races, which were grandfathered in because of their spot on the schedule, not because they earned it.
Dave Rodman: It's another example of NASCAR's inconsistency. They could do it. It would be for the good of the sport. I think you'd have a more fitting champion. And just like the Super Bowl, to a degree the dates could rotate.
Joe Menzer: I think we would all agree that Homestead is not the best place to finish the Chase, right? I mean, it's a decent facility and all that, but to finish the season there every year? Not necessarily helping matters, especially when they have trouble selling out 60,000 seats.
David Caraviello: I don't have a problem with finishing in Homestead, which since the renovation is a better track than people give it credit for, and holds its own at the ticket window. I have a problem with too many cookie cutters. I have a problem with only one short track. I have a problem with no road course. I have a problem with where it starts. And remember, you have to take weather into consideration the last week in November. If not Homestead, you're looking at Texas or Phoenix or ... egad ... California.
Joe Menzer: What's wrong with New Hampshire? They pack 'em in at that place!
David Caraviello: I have no problem with New Hampshire. They do pack the place. But it's a flat, technical track that doesn't exactly start the Chase off with a bang.
Dave Rodman: I still think the schedule should be more liquid and tradition shouldn't mandate maintaining the same schedule. That would apply to the Chase events as well. I think New Hampshire is a great place to start, and Homestead has stepped up and worked hard at being a great place to finish. But the parameters should be put in place, and if you don't meet 'em -- bye-bye for a year. Finish at Daytona, and you don't have the weather problems! And Las Vegas would be a good place to start the Chase.
David Caraviello: Thanks for chiming in, Bruton!
Page 1
2. Will Richard Petty Motorsports' move to Ford make that organization more competitive in 2010?
Joe Menzer: Well, sadly, I think we all have to admit that RPM is a mess right now. It's a real credit to Kasey Kahne and that No. 9 team that they've done so well and are in the Chase despite all the stuff swirling around them at Mergers-R-Us.
David Caraviello: I can't see how it wouldn't help. Roush-Yates engines are a proven commodity. Although Roush Fenway hasn't won since February, Fords over the long haul have proven more competitive than Dodges. And if Roush builds RPM's chassis -- which seems a distinct possibility -- Richard Petty's drivers will be in pretty good stuff.
Dave Rodman: OK. I'm not exactly doing the math here -- or the stats -- but it seems to me that Yates two years ago, with Kvapil and Gilliland, was better than they are now, so the Roush-Yates chassis and engine connection isn't a given for success. RPM has one guy who's seemed to figure it out, but that's it.
Bye-bye Dodge
Richard Petty Motorsports will merge operations with Yates Racing and switch to Ford in the 2010 season.
David Caraviello: Is that a matter of their cars, or their driver stable? Hey, nobody's pounding on Elliott Sadler and A.J. Allmendinger here. But is Kahne just so good that he can sort of rise above all of this? Or does he have something figured out that everybody else doesn't?
Joe Menzer: I tend to agree with Roadman on this one. Sorry, DC2. But here you have one driver and car -- Kahne in the aforementioned No. 9 -- who has done well. One with seemingly good potential in Allmendinger who has yet to really show consistent results for it. And then two guys in Paul Menard and Elliott Sadler who probably should be replaced, but won't be (because Menard brings his Dad's sponsorship dough and Sadler has one more year left on his contract).
Dave Rodman: I think Penske has proven the Dodge stuff can run, and be pretty darned competitive. We're not behind closed doors, so how financially strapped RPM might really be is unknown to us. And even with competitive chassis and the best engines in the world, lack of finance will doom you in this league. I think Kasey and Kenny Francis have proven when things are right, they are easily among the top five combinations in the sport, period. I swore when A.J. got dumped by Red Bull they'd live to regret it, and I still believe it -- he needs some consistency and this is another disruption. And ESad didn't forget how to drive overnight. So this might be another building year.
David Caraviello: Wait a minute. You have a company in Roush Fenway that, in all honesty, is having a tough time this year. But nine years out of 10, they're going to win a bunch of races and contend for titles. And you're telling me it's not going to help RPM to be associated with them? Please. These are the same Smackers who habitually rip Penske for underachieving, and now they're the gold standard? Let's take the long view here, people.
Joe Menzer: OK, now I have to tee off on Roadman. I knew I couldn't agree with him for long. How has Penske shown they can be all the competitive with the Dodge? Because Kurt Busch won one race about four months ago and is seventh in the Chase seeding? When he was as high as second in points not all that long ago? What has Sam Hornish Jr. done? Or David Stremme, for goodness sakes? Penske has been a disappointment again this year, unless Kurt gets on a roll in the Chase -- which isn't likely.
Dave Rodman: I think Paul could be considered an "NBA project." As Larry Carter said a year ago at Phoenix, to him he hadn't proven he couldn't do it, unlike a number of other competitors in the Cup garage. I think he's shown slow and steady improvement, and he's proven most of the places he's been he can win, so I'd say he's not the weakest link.
Joe Menzer: I think you are nuts with that overly optimistic view of Paul Menard's career and potential at the Cup level.
David Caraviello: I'm sorry, did you just say that Paul Menard has proven he can win in most places? Did I miss something? Paul's a good kid, and no question, he's making the most of what he's got. But let's not turn him into A.J. Foyt all of the sudden.
Joe Menzer: I'm not even sure he's making the most of what he's got!
David Caraviello: Well, that may be a little harsh. This doesn't need to turn into Menard Smack. And no question, there's a little chaos over at RPM right now. Who's in charge? Nobody knows. They made an announcement last week and then seemed to go out of their way not to talk about it. I have the impression this is very much a work in progress. But I cannot imagine that they won't be better in the long run because of an association with Ford and Roush.
Dave Rodman: Wow, Joe. I think the Kurtster has run much better than he has finished. They needed to step up at Richmond and they did. Sam Hornish Jr., for his non-stock car background and big lack of experience in Cup cars has been pretty good the last two months, through my glasses. Stremme has virtually no competition experience in these cars. They were running better than they were finishing early in the year, but they have leveled out, so that's indecisive. Menard won at the touring level and he's won in the Nationwide Series. In my opinion he's progressing and that's cause for hope, that's all.
Joe Menzer: No doubt Hornish has gotten better and Stremme has been better of late. But this is a bottom-line business. Penske has lots of money and resources. They have one guy in the Chase, and he is not coming into it with much positive momentum. That's the bottom line.
David Caraviello: And besides, Richard said one reason they switched was because all the Dodge money was going to Penske. That may not be completely accurate, but if it's even close, I'd be bolting, too.
Dave Rodman: There's no question it's a financial decision, and it'll play best for Roger, if he's now in position to get all the Dodge money -- whatever that amounts to. And I don't think, as I think I pointed out, that a manufacturer switch will be an instant fix or a cure-all for everything. If the cars are as alike as they allegedly are, Kahne will still be the team leader and the best the other three can hope for initially is to maintain the level they're at.
Joe Menzer: We've gotten way off track on the original question. I guess my big-picture answer would be that I guess Ford will be better than Dodge for RPM, but it's not going to be a cure-all for an organization that is fighting lots of inner turmoil. I think that was an organization once built mostly on loyalty and continuity -- when it was truly Petty Enterprises. That all changed with the first Boston Ventures deal, then the merger with Gillett, and now this. Too much change, too fast. Now they have no real true identity. No matter how much they plaster Richard's face on the front of the company, they are struggling to establish their true identity to where they can move forward as a solid, committed organization in the way Stewart-Haas did.
Dave Rodman: But Stewart-Haas has way better drivers, and better personnel across the board in the critical spots.
David Caraviello: And that little Hendrick connection doesn't hurt, either.
Page 2
3. We all know about Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson, but outside of the points leader and the three-time champion, who's the biggest threat to win the Chase?
Dave Rodman: OK, so that means we've placed Mark Martin in that third co-favorite's role -- because after all, he is the points leader, right? That will make this a debate on the relative merits of the Chase format versus the standard championship format. Trust me, we don't want to go there. It would rile "the people" up too much.
Joe Menzer: Technically, Martin is the No. 1 seed. The regular-season points leader was and remains Tony Stewart. There is a difference.
David Caraviello: I've thought all along that this is a three-horse race: Stewart, Johnson, and Mark Martin. Right now, I'd add Denny Hamlin to that list. But that's it. Juan Montoya to me is a very dangerous dark horse, because they played it so conservatively the first 26 races and we really don't know what they have. But right now, I think those four guys are the only ones who can win the title.
Who'll take it?
Bill Kimm and Jason Schoellen make their predictions on who will be the 2009 Cup Series champion.
Joe Menzer: I think you have left one very possible threat out of the mix in Jeff Gordon. And since I'm not worried about "riling the people up," I'm going to jump right in and contend that this is what I like about the Chase. Right now we're not sure who will contend.
David Caraviello: Hey, I love Jeff Gordon. But I also believe you have to be able to win races to win the Chase. He hasn't won a race since Texas in the spring.
Joe Menzer: I mean, I do believe Stewart and Johnson will be right there at the end along with at least one other. But DC2 is right about Montoya -- and Hamlin. I happen to think something will happen to take Martin out of the mix by Homestead. Just a hunch. But it's interesting. And it's uncertain. And under the old format, it wouldn't have been.
Dave Rodman: Well, I hate to do it -- but I'm gonna wait until Kansas -- or after Kansas. On the one hand, there are guys who have a lot of strong points in the Chase -- but with what it took to get into this Chase more than any other since maybe the first one, I believe this truly is a 12-horse race.
David Caraviello: Please. This is not a 12-horse race. Hey, yes, I understand everybody has a chance. I understand the point gaps are artificially narrowed. But in the Jimmie era, you have to be able to win multiple races to win the Chase. How many guys in this field can realistically do that? Hey, somebody may prove me wrong. But I think it's four. Period. That's your championship field.
Dave Rodman: Johnson is still the prohibitive favorite, until he proves he's not, or someone rips that out of his hands. On the one hand, Tony built a great cushion in 10 weeks, but then for the last three he's been a shade better than mediocre. I've felt Gordon would be a weapon this season since early in the year, and nothing's happened to change my opinion. And if you want to talk about consistent performance, Mark Martin rivals his Hendrick teammate Johnson, for sure.
Joe Menzer: Listen, two years ago Clint Bowyer won at New Hampshire to start off the Chase and threw himself into contention out of seemingly nowhere. Last year Greg Biffle did it. Yes, you have to win races. But you don't have to have a last name of Stewart or Johnson to do it and get in the mix.
David Caraviello: Joe, refresh my memory, what were those Sprint Cup championship celebrations like for Bowyer and Biffle?
Joe Menzer: They didn't win it all, but they did contend. And they did make it more interesting to watch in the final 10 weeks. That is why the Chase is good for the sport. That's all I'm saying. Oh, and by the way, per our earlier discussion, I don't seem to be hearing either of you tout Kurt Busch as a contender going into this Chase.
Dave Rodman: Denny Hamlin has almost pulled a Johnson-like prelude to the Chase. He's bad fast at New Hampshire and they are on a roll. If he comes out of the gate quickly, anyone who wants to contend will have to keep pace. You can't disallow Edwards or Biffle, and David, I agree with you on Juan. Let's see how he starts up as a race horse rather than a point-churner and we'll know if he's a legitimate threat.
David Caraviello: This is not about whether the Chase is good for the sport. I think we all agree with that, even though the TV ratings for Richmond look abysmal. This is about who can win it. Everybody's saying all the right things right now about how anyone can win it. Sorry, I don't agree with that. There are some guys who were lucky to get in. There are some guys who will be racing for 12th. The pool of genuine contenders here is smaller than people think it is.
Joe Menzer: Edwards will not get it done this year. There is no compelling reason to think that they will suddenly start winning races when they haven't to this point. Montoya is considered the dark horse because they kept hinting that they were holding back and playing it conservative until they got into the Chase. Now we'll see if they really were or not. But you are right about Hamlin. Plus he's bursting with confidence.
David Caraviello: Much like myself as I dominate yet another Smack session.
Follow the Chase with news and analysis from the track by NASCAR.COM's insiders.
Dave Rodman: Kurt knows how to win a Chase championship. He and Pat Tryson have motivation, as if they needed more. I hadn't gotten around to him yet because I'm telling you -- what most of those guys said at Richmond was true. I can't count anyone out. The longest shot, I think, would be Ryan Newman's team -- but only because they've been a little erratic on the performance side, and a 10-race Chase doesn't really allow you the window to do that. When you think of what Vickers and Red Bull have done the last 10 races -- whether they were supposed to or not -- they are blithely unaware they're not supposed to succeed, and in a Chase format that could spell top-five at the end of the season.
David Caraviello: We're not talking about top-five. We're talking about winning the championship. There's a huge difference there.
Dave Rodman: It's my opinion there are no less than six legitimate title contenders. Let me know if you want a list, because I'll have to do something with that stupid Chase Tracker game at some point before Sunday.
Joe Menzer: As for your silly comment about yourself, DC2, all I can say is that you once claimed to be dominant in pickup basketball as well. Nothing you say about yourself can be trusted.
David Caraviello: Joe, I meant to ask -- has your face healed from that last time I dunked on you? The imprint left by the basketball looked pretty nasty.
Joe Menzer: Caraviello is dreaming again (that wouldn't even happen in Nerf hoops). And back on the subject at hand, hey, the last 10 weeks of the regular season ... Tony was first in points, Hamlin a close second and Vickers third. Just for the record. Also for the record, the ratings for performance in this Smack just came in. They are ... 1. Menzer; 2. No one; Tied for last: Roadman and Caraviello.
David Caraviello: Those are just the overnights. Wait until the national numbers come in!
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