Little change after Loudon; Dover could change that (cont'd)

TIER TWO

Tony Stewart (No change)

Save a missing axle cap, Tony Stewart probably would be a top-tier Chase contender, too. Don't forget he had one of the best cars last week at New Hampshire and likely will be strong again this week at Dover. Don't get too carried away with Stewart-Haas making "first-year" mistakes in the Chase like I have heard some people say.

Sure, an axle cap is a basic checklist item the morning of a race but a multitude of things could have happened and something that basic likely won't fail again. If Johnson had a late-race challenger at Dover in May it was Stewart. Smoke still hasn't scored a top-10 finish since his win at Watkins Glen; there's a really good chance that streak will come to an end at Dover.

Brian Vickers (No change)

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One down, two to go. Of the big challenges facing Vickers and the 83 team in the Chase, New Hampshire was goal No. 1, Dover and Martinsville are still to come. The Red Bull team did an incredible job last week at New Hampshire after an issue on pit road, and Vickers rallied once again to score his best finish at a track in recent memory. Vickers has pulled that rabbit out of the hat several times in the past few races.

Either that luck is going to run out or he is going to ride that wave until they can get to the intermediate tracks where they will shine. Dover is a very large obstacle for this team. Vickers' last top-10 at Dover came in 2005. Yikes! If they can survive with a top-10, Kansas looms on the horizon next week. Ah (you can hear the relief from here), finally a mile-and-a-half track!

Jeff Gordon (No change)

It always seems to come down to the end of the race for the 24 team. Last week at New Hampshire it was a pit-road problem that stuck Gordon back in the back where he found the going very tough. Gordon was not able to rally as well as Vickers; he never recovered from the mistake and finished 15th.

When you try to pinpoint what is going on with the 24 team it's hard -- there's just something missing and what's missing is not big, they're just a little bit off from top guys. But a little bit off in this game will get you behind quickly. Still though, Dover is one of Gordon's best tracks, and he has five finishes of 11th or better in his past six races there. With 102 points to make up, the 24 team needs to find some momentum fast, though, before the rest of the field pulls away.

TIER THREE

Carl Edwards (No change)

We said it here last week and after the race at New Hampshire; Carl Edwards said it too: "Just not enough speed." Thus has been the story for Roush Fenway Racing in 2009. If there is one place, however, that the 99 team can turn things around, it's this joint.

Edwards has six consecutive top-10s at Dover and he won this race two years ago. Their championship hopes need a kick in the pants and Dover is the ideal place to make that happen.

Greg Biffle (No change)

While his teammate Edwards seems to be going in the wrong direction, Greg Biffle and his team rallied for a nice top-10 finish at New Hampshire. What is that I hear? Something resembling excitement from a Roush driver? Biffle has been very positive all week; after all, ninth was about the best they had run at New Hampshire, so to finish there was like a win.

Much like Edwards, Biffle has simply been spectacular at Dover in recent years. In his past four races at Dover he has finished first, second or third and, of course, he won this race last year. All of the sudden, if a Roush driver has a chance to win the championship, it looks like it might be Biffle. But even then, it will take a win this weekend a several surprising runs between now and Homestead to pull it off. (Continued)