Little change after Loudon; Dover could change that

If you could rank the tracks that drivers, on average, are worried about in the Chase, Talladega would be No. 1. No. 2? Dover.

Have you ever seen the start of a Cup race at Dover? It's big fun. Forty-three cars slamming down into Turn 1 (or "landing" as the teams call it now) and the cars just scatter from there, some run high, some run low, some run the middle. It's a cool sight ... at least for everyone not in a race car.

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To the drivers, it is a gut-wrenching, heart-pounding, white-knuckled few minutes until the cars can get spread out once again. Denny Hamlin told me, "it's like Talladega," until they can get separated from one another. Well, get ready for that scenario all day long with Dover seeing it's first double-file restarts on Sunday.

For the most part, drivers really like Dover; it's fun, it's fast and it feels like a roller coaster -- up and down out of the high-banked turns. But if you ask them, drivers are truly worried about what might happen at the Monster Mile, as evidenced by the many multi-car wrecks we have seen in the past.

This track just has a way of biting you when you least expect it; leading or running in the back, it shows no mercy. Every year since the Chase's inception, at least one Chase driver (and a few times more than one) has finished 32nd or worse in the Dover Chase race. Someone's Chase fortunes will take a turn for the worse Sunday; there are 12 drivers who just hope it is not them.

TIER ONE

Mark Martin (No change)

Mark Martin said last week that New Hampshire was "his worst track in the chase." Yeah, the New York Jets also said they had no chance to beat the New England Patriots. Good thing Martin and crew chief Alan Gustafson pulled off the "upset."

Now Martin is headed to what he says is, "one of my very favorite tracks on the entire circuit." Imagine what can happen this weekend. I've known Martin for years and he would always say this was one of his best tracks and no matter how bad things were in his career, he could always count on a good run at Dover.

Things are about as good as they have ever been in Martin's career right now, so the rest of the field better look out. Martin also is bringing one of his best cars, the one he won with at Darlington back in May. In the five years of the Chase, the New Hampshire winner has gone on to finish in the top five at Dover the next week three times. Bet that trend continues this year, too.

Denny Hamlin (No change)

Denny Hamlin's crew chief, Mike Ford, was really worried about New Hampshire. His solution? Build a new car, which he told me this week is, "the best car we have ever built at JGR." It worked. Hamlin finished second at New Hampshire and now sits just 35 points out of the lead, with one of their biggest Chase hurdles out of the way.

The next big hurdle? Dover. Hamlin told me this week that Dover is, "my biggest obstacle to win the title." Indeed, Hamlin has finished 36th or worse in his past four Dover races. But Ford lent this key fact: "the stats lie." In fact, if you dive down a little further you can tell that Hamlin has led laps and consistently ran in the top five at Dover, only to crash out almost every time.

Need to find someone truly worried about just making it through the weekend at Dover? Look no further than this guy. There is no doubt that this particular race in the Chase will be the most challenging for the 11 team; literally every race from here out they have a legit shot to win. If they can survive Dover with a top-10, Hamlin could very well be Martin and Johnson's biggest challenger in the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson (No change)

We all knew it would happen. The magical "championship switch" was flipped by Chad Knaus at some point last week and Jimmie Johnson, on schedule, delivered his first top-five finish since his win at Indy back in August. All kidding aside, the bottom line is this: in the final 10 races of the season the 48 team delivers, like it or not.

You can honestly expect more where that came from this week, too. Dover is one of Johnson's best tracks. Johnson has three consecutive top-10s at Dover and he won there in late May in what was arguably the 48 team's most dominant performance start to finish so far in 2009. Plus, there's more.

Goodyear will be bringing a new tire to Dover this week that feels "quite a bit different" according to the driver who did the tire test for Goodyear. That driver? Jimmie Johnson. Look for Johnson to be your overall favorite to win this week at Dover.

Juan Montoya (+1)

I had Juan Montoya ranked higher than most did last week; I saw the "go-for-broke" attitude coming from a mile away. Expect the momentum and confidence to continue for Montoya this week, too. There is something about teams who get things figured out at New Hampshire, specifically how to get their car to turn in the middle of the corner, that translates to Dover. Don't ask me how but it's true.

Montoya has never been spectacular at Dover, he's finished 39th and 30th in his past two races there but I would not count him out of a top-five this weekend. Things just seem to be going his way.

TIER TWO

Tony Stewart (No change)

Save a missing axle cap, Tony Stewart probably would be a top-tier Chase contender, too. Don't forget he had one of the best cars last week at New Hampshire and likely will be strong again this week at Dover. Don't get too carried away with Stewart-Haas making "first-year" mistakes in the Chase like I have heard some people say.

Sure, an axle cap is a basic checklist item the morning of a race but a multitude of things could have happened and something that basic likely won't fail again. If Johnson had a late-race challenger at Dover in May it was Stewart. Smoke still hasn't scored a top-10 finish since his win at Watkins Glen; there's a really good chance that streak will come to an end at Dover.

Brian Vickers (No change)

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One down, two to go. Of the big challenges facing Vickers and the 83 team in the Chase, New Hampshire was goal No. 1, Dover and Martinsville are still to come. The Red Bull team did an incredible job last week at New Hampshire after an issue on pit road, and Vickers rallied once again to score his best finish at a track in recent memory. Vickers has pulled that rabbit out of the hat several times in the past few races.

Either that luck is going to run out or he is going to ride that wave until they can get to the intermediate tracks where they will shine. Dover is a very large obstacle for this team. Vickers' last top-10 at Dover came in 2005. Yikes! If they can survive with a top-10, Kansas looms on the horizon next week. Ah (you can hear the relief from here), finally a mile-and-a-half track!

Jeff Gordon (No change)

It always seems to come down to the end of the race for the 24 team. Last week at New Hampshire it was a pit-road problem that stuck Gordon back in the back where he found the going very tough. Gordon was not able to rally as well as Vickers; he never recovered from the mistake and finished 15th.

When you try to pinpoint what is going on with the 24 team it's hard -- there's just something missing and what's missing is not big, they're just a little bit off from top guys. But a little bit off in this game will get you behind quickly. Still though, Dover is one of Gordon's best tracks, and he has five finishes of 11th or better in his past six races there. With 102 points to make up, the 24 team needs to find some momentum fast, though, before the rest of the field pulls away.

TIER THREE

Carl Edwards (No change)

We said it here last week and after the race at New Hampshire; Carl Edwards said it too: "Just not enough speed." Thus has been the story for Roush Fenway Racing in 2009. If there is one place, however, that the 99 team can turn things around, it's this joint.

Edwards has six consecutive top-10s at Dover and he won this race two years ago. Their championship hopes need a kick in the pants and Dover is the ideal place to make that happen.

Greg Biffle (No change)

While his teammate Edwards seems to be going in the wrong direction, Greg Biffle and his team rallied for a nice top-10 finish at New Hampshire. What is that I hear? Something resembling excitement from a Roush driver? Biffle has been very positive all week; after all, ninth was about the best they had run at New Hampshire, so to finish there was like a win.

Much like Edwards, Biffle has simply been spectacular at Dover in recent years. In his past four races at Dover he has finished first, second or third and, of course, he won this race last year. All of the sudden, if a Roush driver has a chance to win the championship, it looks like it might be Biffle. But even then, it will take a win this weekend a several surprising runs between now and Homestead to pull it off.

TIER FOUR

Kurt Busch (-1)

I've already heard it from the Kurt Busch fans -- why are you so down on Kurt? I'm actually not. I think their run at New Hampshire was impressive and expected (especially after the pit-road wreck). I also expect them to be a contender for the win at Dover this weekend as this is one of Busch's best tracks.

So why drop him a tier? I just feel, after this week, things will get a lot tougher. I just cannot fathom a driver/crew chief combination winning the championship when the crew chief is not allowed in the building during the week. Sure, you can downplay it all you want and say it's not a big deal and that in today's day and age you can work exclusively from home via e-mail and phone.

That's a bunch of hooey. For the sake of everyone on the 2 team and my friends at Penske Racing I would love to be completely wrong, but I just don't see any scenario where this ends with Busch holding the 2009 Sprint Cup.

Ryan Newman (No change)

Ryan Newman did exactly what he needed to at New Hampshire. Turn one of his best tracks into his fourth consecutive top-10 finish in 2009. A terrific way to start the Chase. Quietly this team is rolling along and building momentum. And the better news is that Dover is up next, arguably Newman's best track. Newman has three wins there and finished eighth in May.

The big question for this team is can they parlay this momentum into some good runs on the intermediate tracks where they have struggled this year? If so, Newman and crew chief Tony Gibson might be surprise top-five Chasers when it is all said and done.

TIER FIVE

Kasey Kahne (-1)

Alright, I will come out and say it just one race into the Chase. Kasey Kahne will not win the 2009 championship. It's amazing what has happened to this team in the last few weeks. Let's review the As the World Turns script since their win at Atlanta, which was just three weeks ago, believe it or not.

In case you didn't know, they were on top of the world that week. Since then they have: 1.) Announced they are switching to Ford in 2010, not a bad move. But why announce it now? What did that gain them other than a bunch of questions?; 2.) They have fired Mark McArdle, former VP of Racing Operations (bad move); 3.) Then last week before the New Hampshire race they told 90 employees they would not have a job at the end of the season (really bad move).

"But be sure to give your best effort between now and then; thanks for your 10 years of service!" Gee, wonder why they lost an engine 66 laps into the first Chase race?

There are now endless unanswered questions. Who is in charge of the organization from the competition side? Will it have enough money to get through all of 2009 fully funded? More importantly, will it have enough money to be around in 2010 fully funded? If so, how many teams will it have in 2010? Who will drive for it in 2010? Oh yeah, and by the way, aren't you trying to win a championship?

Way too much has changed with this organization in such a short period of time for this team to contend for a championship. Little distractions in the Chase can keep you from winning a championship. Multiple and large distractions such as these are killers for title hopes and morale.

I hate it for the guys on the 9 team but such is their reality. Just imagine how good this organization could be if Ray Evernham and Richard Petty actually still had a say in how this operation is run.

Marty Snider is a pit reporter for TNT. His weekly tiering of championship-hopeful drivers -- Inside the Chase -- appears each Wednesday.