Not quite time to crown Johnson the '09 champion (cont'd)

TIER TWO

Tony Stewart (No change)

Tony Stewart said this week, "It's not time to panic. When you panic and try to force things, that's when you make things worse for yourself." Stewart has 106 points to make up in eight races. That's plenty of space and time for Stewart to make a move but it needs to happen quickly, these next three races for the No. 14 team are critical.

Stewart has been hit or miss at the intermediate race tracks this season and in order to make a run at the championship they will need to be much better. This weekend at Kansas, Stewart should be strong. He finished fourth at Chicago back in July and he has five top-10s in his eight Kansas races. So they have "hit it" more times than not at this type of track. The "miss it" part might come into play the two races after this. For some reason the California and Charlotte type tracks have given this No. 14 team fits. This is a critical stretch of the Chase for Smoke.

Brian Vickers (No Change)

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Brian Vickers' rent in this space is good for one more week. That's how short the leash is for the No. 83 team. Vickers and the whole NASCAR world knew he had to survive the first two races of the Chase and so far he deserve a C+ grade. When the Chase started our magic number for Vickers was to be 100 or less points behind after Dover. They knew New Hampshire and Dover would be tough for them but falling 151 points behind may be too difficult to overcome. No doubt the intermediate tracks are where we expect this No. 83 team to pour it on. The top-fives must start rolling in starting this week or any hopes for a title might be dwindling.

TIER THREE

Jeff Gordon (-1)

It might be a week too early to move the four-time champion down one tier but things just do not seem to be clicking at the No. 24 camp. Certainly not enough so far to have a legit shot at the title. As we talked about before the Chase started, something just always seems to be missing late in the race for the No. 24 team. That has proven out at both New Hampshire and Dover, where Gordon fell out of the top five late in both races to finish 15th and sixth, respectively. That's not going to win a championship.

The good news, however, might just be around the corner for the team because these intermediate tracks are no doubt where Gordon has shined this year. In those nine races so far in 2009, Gordon has one win, five second-place finishes and he has only finished out of the top 10 once, that's impressive ... and kind of the opposite of his teammate Jimmie Johnson. If there are title hopes in 2009 for Four Time, it will be won with strong runs and some wins in the next few races.

Kurt Busch (+1)

Speaking of jumping on things a week too early, I may have done that last week to Kurt Busch by moving him down to tier four last week. As expected, Busch ran well at Dover, leading the second most laps and finishing fifth. But the next few races will determine Busch's championship possibilities. Kansas has never been a good track for Busch, with just two top-10 finishes. California has been hot and cold and Charlotte has traditionally been one of his worst tracks. Throw Martinsville in next and this is by far the most difficult stretch the No. 2 team will face in the Chase. Busch is in a very favorable championship position, just 75 points out in fourth but two of his best Chase tracks are now behind him and four of his biggest challenges in the Chase are directly ahead. (Continued)