Gordon outside looking in after only two Chase races? (cont'd)

3. Time to look ahead. Which driver will have a better 2010 season -- Kevin Harvick or Dale Earnhardt Jr.?

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Lance McGrew is at the forefront of the effort to turn around Dale Earnhardt Jr. and the No. 88 team.

Duane Cross: Harvick -- because, hopefully, Richard Childress Racing will be focused on only three teams. Forget trying to find sponsorship for the fourth car, Richard, and let Casey Mears hit the bricks. Focus on the three drivers who can carry the franchise back to respectability. Please.

David Caraviello: That's a tough one. I want to say Earnhardt, because he's surrounded by all that Hendrick equipment and brain power, which is en route to another Sprint Cup title. But I'm going to say Harvick. He's been a title contender much more recently. RCR is showing some late-season signs of life. And it won't hurt that he'll be in a contract year.

Joe Menzer: I'll disagree and say Dale Jr. I'm not sure I can offer much evidence as to why, but he just can't keep being this bad in Hendrick equipment. I think he will step it up and win at least a couple of races, and at least challenge for a Chase spot again.

Inside the Numbers

2009 Cup Series finishes

Track	Junior	Harvick
Daytona	27	2
Fontana	39	38
Las Vegas	10	12
Atlanta	11	4
Bristol	14	30
Martinsville	8	11
Texas	20	27
Phoenix	31	30
Talladega	2	38
Richmond	27	34
Darlington	27	11
Charlotte	40	41
Dover	12	17
Pocono	27	24
Michigan	14	18
Sonoma	26	29
Loudon	13	34
Daytona	39	26
Chicago	15	19
Indianapolis	36	6
Pocono	28	12
Watkins Glen	39	35
Michigan	3	12
Bristol	9	38
Atlanta	17	2
Richmond	21	9
Loudon	35	32
Dover	20	12
Average	21.8	21.5

David Caraviello: Joe, I don't know if I'd heap those kind of expectations on Junior just yet. They're improving inch by inch, yes, but I see nothing that tells me they'll be in a position to win races next season. Unless you're just trying to curry favor with a certain segment of the fan base that often bombs your inbox, that is.

Joe Menzer: Are you kidding me? You can't win with Junior Nation. They'll be on me for not saying he'll win three or four and challenge for the whole enchilada. One or two is all I'm willing to say. Which would be a vast improvement, to be sure.

Duane Cross: I'm curious to see if there will be any crew chief changes at Hendrick. Obviously the 5 and 48 are set -- but would it surprise you if Hendrick shook up things with the 24 and 88?

David Caraviello: Gordon reiterated this week that Steve Letarte will be back, as he should be. And every indication we've had from Junior is that Lance McGrew is the guy. So I don't know if that's going to happen.

Duane Cross: Of course that's the company line. Who wants to field those questions each week when you're focused on trying to win the Chase. But, there has to be those type of conversations going on internally at HMS.

Joe Menzer: That might depend on what happens with the 24 down the stretch here. Or if the 88 shows vast improvement during these last eight races. I don't know if shaking it up again with Junior would be the answer. If they are going to make changes, though, they need to make them swiftly and decisively early in the offseason and get on with it. I think the first real signs of Junior being in serious trouble this year was when they made crew changes early in the spring. Which, of course, was followed later by the switch in crew chiefs. You just can't be doing all that stuff once the season starts. No time to develop chemistry.

Duane Cross: Personally, that chemistry angle may be a bit overrated with Junior; he and Tony Eury Jr. had chemistry. Let's get a pit-box boss atop the 88 wagon, someone who can take that team -- and driver -- by the cajones and get Junior back on the beam. Maybe Lance is that guy, maybe he's not. But it's a lot to hope for to believe Junior will win multiple races and contend for the Chase in 2010.

David Caraviello: Yeah, that No. 88 team has to run consistently in the top 10 before you'll convince me that they're capable of winning multiple races. This is no knock on anyone there. They all realize what kind of rebuilding project they're undertaking. But they've managed back-to-back top-10s just once all year, and now you're projecting multiple race wins?

Joe Menzer: OK, OK ... maybe someone has been dumping the 88 Kool-Aid in my Coors Lights lately without my noticing. But I'm going on my ample gut's instincts and sticking to my guns: Junior wins one or two next season and at least challenges to get into the Chase.

David Caraviello: Hey, it would be great for the sport, but I'll believe it when I see it. Harvick has been a lot better a lot more recently; we'll know soon enough whether this season is an aberration for RCR, or the start of an unfortunate trend. I don't know that either one of them will win races and contend for Chase berths next year. But for that No. 29 team, the only way to go is up.

Joe Menzer: I said one or two races, guys. I guess two is "multiple" by strict definition. But I don't think that's going out on too much of a limb considering the equipment he's in! And hasn't Junior won just as many races as Harvick in the last two seasons? And more recently? One other factor to consider is that Junior might just do better if the spotlight shines a little less intensely on him, if the expectations aren't as high as they have been. That's got to wear a guy down after a while, no matter how well they handle it. Now maybe the pressure is toned down just a tad.

Duane Cross: Exactly, Joe -- he is in Hendrick equipment! It's the best on the market ... Johnson, Martin, Gordon, Stewart, Newman -- all in the Chase. Seems as though the problem with the 88 is a short between the seat and the steering wheel.

Joe Menzer: Now remember, folks out there in Junior Nation, that was Duane Cross who made that comment. Duane Cross. Not Joe Menzer!

David Caraviello: Hmmm. Suddenly it appears we have a short between brain and keyboard.

Joe Menzer: Better check the gigabytes in your e-mail inbox, boss!

The opinions expressed are those solely of the participants.