Gordon outside looking in after only two Chase races?

1. Jeff Gordon is 122 points behind Chase leader Mark Martin. Gordon has two victories at Kansas. Does he have to win again there Sunday to stay in it?

David Caraviello: He has to win somewhere, and Kansas may be his best bet, given his track history there. I mean, he's good at Charlotte, but so is Jimmie Johnson. He's good at Martinsville, but so is Jimmie Johnson Of all the tracks remaining, this may be Gordon's best one, and he needs to make up some ground somewhere. This could be one of his only chances to do that.

Joe Menzer: That depends on what Mark Martin and the other six guys in front of him do. If he beats all of them and finishes second or third, he's still in it to win it. But obviously if he finishes behind Martin and several of the others, he's in serious trouble.

Duane Cross: Even if Gordon wins at Kansas, does anyone think Jimmie Johnson won't finish second? Even with Martin holding a 10-point advantage after two races, guys, this is just another week in the countdown to coronation of the No. 48 team. Eight drivers already are more than 100 points behind. The reality is that this isn't going to be a nail-biter down the stretch.

Joe Menzer: I hate to agree with Duane right off the bat, but the truth is that Gordon and most of the rest of the Chase field already is in serious trouble. The 48 is going to be tough to beat. But DC, why such a pessimist? This absolutely has the potential to go down to the wire. The 48 will be there, no doubt, but Martin, Juan Montoya and maybe even Denny Hamlin might jump up there to challenge. And don't rule out Tony Stewart just yet, either. Or Gordon.

David Caraviello: Joe, I don't buy this argument that you can second and third people to death. Eventually, you're going to have to win. More than once, ideally. That's how Johnson and Co. operate, and to beat them, you have to do it at their own game. All the third-place finishes in the world will net you only second place eventually.

Joe Menzer: Oh, I never said he wouldn't have to win somewhere. In fact, I made that point about Montoya in my column the other day. It's great that he's consistently running top five now, but he's got to win somewhere if he's truly going to contend for this thing. Same with Gordon, or anyone else. I don't believe anyone will win the Chase without winning at least once within this Chase.

David Caraviello: We hear it every year before the Chase starts -- oh, maybe you won't have to win. Maybe 10 top-fives will do it. And then Johnson starts knocking out trophies and people finishing sixth wind up feeling sick. The reality is, you look at what he did at Dover, and you look at his history at Martinsville and California, and you may have to win three times to stay in the ballgame. Really, how many guys in this Chase field are capable of doing that?

Duane Cross: I'll disagree that you cannot second- and third-place people to death. If you finish second 10 times, that's at least 1,700 points -- and yes, you can win the title with 6,700 points (Johnson totaled 6,684 last year -- and that included three wins in the Chase). Yes, it can be done.

David Caraviello: And the likelihood of that happening is .000000048 percent, and involves Jimmie Johnson falling off the face of the planet. That's why I never bought this "deepest Chase field ever!" argument so many guys were trying to make. Going in, I thought only three or four drivers realistically had a chance. There's a long way to go, but now, it's beginning to look like a two-man show.

Joe Menzer: This must be what used to happen to the rest of the golfing world when Tiger Woods seemed so invincible. A little of that has worn off, but guys were just figuring the top dog is so good, they don't have a chance. And when they think that, they don't.

Duane Cross: Joe, where's the love for Kurt Busch? He's still within shouting distance.

Joe Menzer: I'm figuring Martin, Montoya, Hamlin, Stewart and Gordon still think they've got a chance. As for Kurt, I know he currently sits in fourth. But even though he's won one race this year to JPM's none, I just don't think they've got the equipment to get it done.

Duane Cross: David and I are in agreement -- it's Johnson's to lose. Two races in, and it's that apparent. Martin will fade.

David Caraviello: Well, I don't think Martin will necessarily fade. But I also don't think he's going to beat Jimmie, either. And if Jeff doesn't win some races, he's going to struggle to stay in it.

Duane Cross: "Fade" in the sense that Martin won't be there with two, three races to go. Jimmie will be on cruise control at Homestead.

2. Television ratings have taken a dip for the first two Chase races. Should NASCAR be concerned?

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Have fans seen this scene too many times?

David Caraviello: In the sense that the Chase was designed to spur television ratings during football season, yes, I think a degree of concern is merited. But this is also the lull of the Chase. The contenders are still being sorted out. I'd expect the numbers to pick up as it gets closer to the end of the year.

Duane Cross: I'm not ready to press the panic button on TV ratings. Yes, they are down -- but the bubble surrounding NASCAR has burst, and anyone who was paying attention saw this coming three years ago. The market is settling and while I believe the sport will remain a viable marketing option for companies, the glory days are in the rear view.

Joe Menzer: Listen, we just talked about Tiger. Do you realize all that they were up against last Sunday? You had Tiger battling Phil Mickelson in golf and tons of quality NFL action. You needed to have a man cave like mine to follow it all. Unfortunately, most of the rest of America doesn't.

David Caraviello: And yet, they've been up against Tiger and the NFL plenty of times before, and fared better. Granted, Dover wasn't the most compelling race. But New Hampshire was, and those numbers were down, too. Maybe the Oh No Here Comes Jimmie Johnson Again fatigue factor is coming into play.

Duane Cross: Now is the time when NASCAR should look at cutting the schedule. It's that simple. NASCAR is never going to compete with the NFL, and the argument of more Saturday night races doesn't bode well in comparison with college football. I mean, c'mon -- Texas flipped its spring 2010 race so it wouldn't have to compete with the Masters? Really, golf has become a player in the TV game, compared to NASCAR ratings? (Ratings comparison below) NASCAR needs to address its shortcomings -- and word is, changes are afoot in regards to the TV schedule -- and stick to doing what it does best.

Joe Menzer: Well, cutting about six weeks out of the schedule is a great idea. But you know it's not going to happen. I think folks should just start outfitting their garages like mine -- with three TVs so they can follow all the sporting action on any given weekend. And absolutely golf is a player in the TV game now. Has been ever since Tiger burst onto the scene.

Duane Cross: Then let's not televise anything on the weekends when the Chosen One is playing. It's ridiculous. Again, take care of your sport and the product and the fans will take care of the rest.

David Caraviello: Please. Golf is a factor four or five times a year, at most. Football is the big dog here, and we all know it. That's NASCAR's prime competition. There are plenty of non-football weekends in June and July when NASCAR wins the weekend. All that changes once football kicks off.

Joe Menzer: More TVs in the garage! I'm telling you, guys, that's the answer to all of this. Then you can follow it all. (Although I'm not sure how that works with the ratings, when you're watching three channels at once.)

Duane Cross: And NASCAR is taking its cue from The Shield. Anyone else see a problem with that? Let's move the Daytona 500 because the NFL is having the Super Bowl the same weekend? Go back to racing at 1 p.m. The Super Bowl is at night. Don't move the race because of something happening hours after the race ends.

David Caraviello: The Shield? What does Vic Mackey have to do with this? Oh, the NFL shield. Now I get it.

Joe Menzer: I don't. But "The Shield" reruns aren't in the three-TV rotation in my Man Cave.

Duane Cross: Well, he carries a big gun -- just like the NFL.

Joe Menzer: You know, in all seriousness, this goes back to our previous discussion about the 48. Nothing against Jimmie and the gang, but what NASCAR really needs is someone to seriously challenge him, maybe even beat him, in this Chase.

Duane Cross: The whole "return to roots" initiative needs to rear its head. Consistent start times -- 1 p.m. ET -- would be a good first step.

David Caraviello: So while we're cutting the schedule and standardizing start times at 1 p.m., can we also eliminate some of these seats? I mean, really, is Dover ever going to sell out again? It's not 2001 anymore, and some of these places are so overbuilt they look ridiculously bad on television.

Joe Menzer: It's already happening in the places that are most proactive, meaning the SMI tracks. Texas took out a bunch of seats, and so did Charlotte. Of course, I believe they took out a few at Martinsville, an ISC track, a few years back to create a very nice row of spaces for motor homes overlooking the backstretch. As for starting times, I like the idea of the standardized 1 p.m. Sunday starts. But you aren't suggesting they do away with all Saturday night races, are you? Because I think sprinkling some of those in is smart.

David Caraviello: I don't think anyone is suggesting that. Even though Saturday is historically a poor viewership night, fans and tracks understandably love those night events. As for the ratings as a whole -- get back to me after, say, Talladega. If they're still down then, it might be time to worry.

Duane Cross: Saturday nights will remain sprinkled through the schedule, no question. And those need to go green at 7:05 p.m. ET -- five-minute pre-race, drop the flag.

3. Time to look ahead. Which driver will have a better 2010 season -- Kevin Harvick or Dale Earnhardt Jr.?

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Lance McGrew is at the forefront of the effort to turn around Dale Earnhardt Jr. and the No. 88 team.

Duane Cross: Harvick -- because, hopefully, Richard Childress Racing will be focused on only three teams. Forget trying to find sponsorship for the fourth car, Richard, and let Casey Mears hit the bricks. Focus on the three drivers who can carry the franchise back to respectability. Please.

David Caraviello: That's a tough one. I want to say Earnhardt, because he's surrounded by all that Hendrick equipment and brain power, which is en route to another Sprint Cup title. But I'm going to say Harvick. He's been a title contender much more recently. RCR is showing some late-season signs of life. And it won't hurt that he'll be in a contract year.

Joe Menzer: I'll disagree and say Dale Jr. I'm not sure I can offer much evidence as to why, but he just can't keep being this bad in Hendrick equipment. I think he will step it up and win at least a couple of races, and at least challenge for a Chase spot again.

Inside the Numbers

2009 Cup Series finishes

Track	Junior	Harvick
Daytona	27	2
Fontana	39	38
Las Vegas	10	12
Atlanta	11	4
Bristol	14	30
Martinsville	8	11
Texas	20	27
Phoenix	31	30
Talladega	2	38
Richmond	27	34
Darlington	27	11
Charlotte	40	41
Dover	12	17
Pocono	27	24
Michigan	14	18
Sonoma	26	29
Loudon	13	34
Daytona	39	26
Chicago	15	19
Indianapolis	36	6
Pocono	28	12
Watkins Glen	39	35
Michigan	3	12
Bristol	9	38
Atlanta	17	2
Richmond	21	9
Loudon	35	32
Dover	20	12
Average	21.8	21.5

David Caraviello: Joe, I don't know if I'd heap those kind of expectations on Junior just yet. They're improving inch by inch, yes, but I see nothing that tells me they'll be in a position to win races next season. Unless you're just trying to curry favor with a certain segment of the fan base that often bombs your inbox, that is.

Joe Menzer: Are you kidding me? You can't win with Junior Nation. They'll be on me for not saying he'll win three or four and challenge for the whole enchilada. One or two is all I'm willing to say. Which would be a vast improvement, to be sure.

Duane Cross: I'm curious to see if there will be any crew chief changes at Hendrick. Obviously the 5 and 48 are set -- but would it surprise you if Hendrick shook up things with the 24 and 88?

David Caraviello: Gordon reiterated this week that Steve Letarte will be back, as he should be. And every indication we've had from Junior is that Lance McGrew is the guy. So I don't know if that's going to happen.

Duane Cross: Of course that's the company line. Who wants to field those questions each week when you're focused on trying to win the Chase. But, there has to be those type of conversations going on internally at HMS.

Joe Menzer: That might depend on what happens with the 24 down the stretch here. Or if the 88 shows vast improvement during these last eight races. I don't know if shaking it up again with Junior would be the answer. If they are going to make changes, though, they need to make them swiftly and decisively early in the offseason and get on with it. I think the first real signs of Junior being in serious trouble this year was when they made crew changes early in the spring. Which, of course, was followed later by the switch in crew chiefs. You just can't be doing all that stuff once the season starts. No time to develop chemistry.

Duane Cross: Personally, that chemistry angle may be a bit overrated with Junior; he and Tony Eury Jr. had chemistry. Let's get a pit-box boss atop the 88 wagon, someone who can take that team -- and driver -- by the cajones and get Junior back on the beam. Maybe Lance is that guy, maybe he's not. But it's a lot to hope for to believe Junior will win multiple races and contend for the Chase in 2010.

David Caraviello: Yeah, that No. 88 team has to run consistently in the top 10 before you'll convince me that they're capable of winning multiple races. This is no knock on anyone there. They all realize what kind of rebuilding project they're undertaking. But they've managed back-to-back top-10s just once all year, and now you're projecting multiple race wins?

Joe Menzer: OK, OK ... maybe someone has been dumping the 88 Kool-Aid in my Coors Lights lately without my noticing. But I'm going on my ample gut's instincts and sticking to my guns: Junior wins one or two next season and at least challenges to get into the Chase.

David Caraviello: Hey, it would be great for the sport, but I'll believe it when I see it. Harvick has been a lot better a lot more recently; we'll know soon enough whether this season is an aberration for RCR, or the start of an unfortunate trend. I don't know that either one of them will win races and contend for Chase berths next year. But for that No. 29 team, the only way to go is up.

Joe Menzer: I said one or two races, guys. I guess two is "multiple" by strict definition. But I don't think that's going out on too much of a limb considering the equipment he's in! And hasn't Junior won just as many races as Harvick in the last two seasons? And more recently? One other factor to consider is that Junior might just do better if the spotlight shines a little less intensely on him, if the expectations aren't as high as they have been. That's got to wear a guy down after a while, no matter how well they handle it. Now maybe the pressure is toned down just a tad.

Duane Cross: Exactly, Joe -- he is in Hendrick equipment! It's the best on the market ... Johnson, Martin, Gordon, Stewart, Newman -- all in the Chase. Seems as though the problem with the 88 is a short between the seat and the steering wheel.

Joe Menzer: Now remember, folks out there in Junior Nation, that was Duane Cross who made that comment. Duane Cross. Not Joe Menzer!

David Caraviello: Hmmm. Suddenly it appears we have a short between brain and keyboard.

Joe Menzer: Better check the gigabytes in your e-mail inbox, boss!

The opinions expressed are those solely of the participants.