For teams still on fringe, it's time to roll the dice (cont'd)

TIER TWO

Hamlin

Gordon

Denny Hamlin (-1)
Had Johnson not held up Hamlin late in the race at Kansas for a couple of laps, Hamlin may very well have been able to catch Tony Stewart and win last week at Kansas. Hamlin moving down a tier is much less a reflection of the No. 11 team's ability to win races and be competitive but more a reflection of them being 99 points behind and their need to leap frog five other teams to win the championship.

California should prove to be another solid finish for Hamlin. Crew chief Mike Ford is bringing the car Hamlin dominated with at Richmond a few weeks ago and Hamlin has finished third and sixth in his past two Fontana races.

Problem is, as we have talked about, solid top-fives and top-10s will not get it done at this point. Hamlin will need to score some wins and soon if he plans to get Joe Gibbs Racing its fourth Cup Series championship.

However, Hamlin's best chances to win in the Chase might be a few weeks down the road, at Martinsville, Talladega and Phoenix. Between now and then the 11 team must make sure they don't finish out of the top 10 again, like two weeks ago at Dover.

Jeff Gordon (+1)
I knew it was a week too early to move Gordon down one tier yet I did it any way. My bad. Once again Gordon showed terrific resiliency at another intermediate track with the ability to rally from mid-pack at Kansas to score another top-five finish. That's 10 intermediate track races so far this year with one win and six second-place finishes for Gordon. Impressive. I would expect that trend to continue and may be even a little better this week.

I have Gordon as the overall favorite at Fontana, which surprises me that it surprises other people. Gordon finished second at California in the spring and second at both Michigan races; clearly this type of track has been right in Gordon's wheelhouse this season.

Don't be surprised if Gordon takes advantage of his strength and finds a way to gain some ground on the top Chasers.

Busch

TIER THREE

Kurt Busch (No Change)
Busch said this week that his start to the Chase has been good but it will not be good enough to win the championship. Kurt is right. While the championship positioning is good for the No. 2 team, I just question whether or not they will be able to win enough races between now and Homestead to make a legit run at the title.

Intermediate tracks have really been the biggest challenge for the 2 team this year. After their dominating win at Atlanta in March they really have struggled to find consistency at this type of track. Despite finishing fifth at California in February, the next three tracks (Fontana, Charlotte, and Martinsville) might be the toughest challenge in the Chase for Busch.

If Busch is still fifth in the championship standings after Martinsville he might have a decent chance to win this thing, but there's a lot of racing between now and then.

Greg Biffle (+1)
Biffle is still kicking himself for vetoing crew chief Greg Irwin and taking four tires, instead of two, at the end of the Kansas race and in the process taking away any chance they had to win. That of course is the talk around the No. 16 team this week but the bigger picture is that things could finally be headed in the right direction for Roush Fenway Racing.

Biffle gave all of the credit for his good run at Kansas to set-up discoveries that teammate Matt Kenseth made at Dover. But the fact that Roush has found anything to make them faster is a big step forward.

California will be a big litmus test for Roush. As a company they have no doubt struggled this season, but no matter how bad things have been through the years for Roush they have always been able to run well at Fontana. So if the set-up advances that Kenseth found at Dover help this week too, Roush might not be as far gone as everyone thought. If they go to California and stink, expect the personnel changes to start soon at Roush as they turn their attention to 2010.

Vickers

Newman

Edwards

Kahne

TIER FOUR

Brian Vickers (-2)
We said Vickers really had one race to prove himself and Kansas was it. Unfortunately their 37th-place finish was their worst since Daytona in February and it could not have come at a worse time. Wins and top-fives at intermediate tracks were really Vickers only chance to make a run at a championship.

There is still time left for this team to make a run back toward the front in the championship standings, especially with all of the intermediate tracks left on the docket, but an overall series title is all but out of the picture as of last week.

Ryan Newman (-1)
Newman came into Kansas riding the momentum from five consecutive top-10 finishes, but that momentum was not good enough; he struggled all weekend at Kansas.

The intermediate tracks just have not been good to Newman this season and that likely will continue this weekend at California, unfortunately.

At this point 164 points is just too much to make up in a Chase year as competitive as this one.

Carl Edwards (No Change)
Edwards finally was able to crack the top 10 for the first time in almost a month and a half. Normally a 10th-place finish for Edwards in the Chase would be a disappointment but this year it's progress.

Just like his teammate Biffle, California will be a big test to gauge where the No. 99 team really stands. Edwards has simply been terrific during his career at Fontana, where he has only finished out of the top 10 once.

At this point for Edwards and the 99 team it's probably time to focus on 2010 and find something that will make this team, and Roush Racing as a whole, better next season.

Kasey Kahne (No Change)
Kahne has been able to string together back-to-back top-10 finishes and was able to climb out of the Chase cellar after Kansas.

California always has been a strong track for Kahne; he's finished 12th or better in his past four Fontana races. But with 190 points to make up there just isn't enough time for the No. 9 team to make a sincere championship run.