For teams still on fringe, it's time to roll the dice

If the race at Kansas proved anything it's that making up points on the leaders in this year's Chase is going to be extremely difficult. With 10 Chasers finishing in the top 11 at Kansas, gaining any ground at all was a win, so for Tony Stewart to pick up 39 points under that scenario is pretty incredible. What that means is that a driver's position in the Chase is more important than ever.

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For the first time in the 2009 Chase there is a clear demarcation line, from eighth-place Greg Biffle to ninth-place Ryan Newman there is a big 50-point drop off. Anyone further south than Biffle in the championship standings had better be looking for Plan B if they would like to win the Sprint Cup.

Bottom line, top-10s will not get it done at this point. If you want to win the championship you must take the necessary chances to get a win, just like Tony Stewart and Darien Grubb did at Kansas with two tires on their last stop.

Look for more risk-taking as we go through the next few weeks but the days of making up 50-plus points in one race may be over, unless of course someone's risk-taking winds up backfiring. The exciting part? We are starting to narrow in on who the real contenders are for the championship.

Here's this week's Chase tiering with some big changes:

Martin

Johnson

Montoya

Stewart

TIER ONE

Mark Martin (No Change)
Another race, another top-10 finish for Martin, who once again probably finished better than he should have. For Martin to be able to finish seventh and still make up points on Jimmie Johnson was a big win in the overall battle. California should be an interesting race for this team.

At Fontana in February they lost an engine and did not get many laps, so there are no notes to fall back on for this week. But if you take Michigan into consideration, a track very similar to California, they clearly were one of the cars to beat in both races there. So it should be yet another solid weekend for Martin.

The one interesting thing I would like to point out about Martin's situation is that he must stay focused on the bigger picture. You have to remember, even though Martin is the "wily veteran" at 50 years old, it has been a few years since he has gotten this far into a championship run. In fact, that's one of the reason's Martin retired in the first place. He would always tell me "I'm tired of chasing points; that's all it's become about."

So now, just three races into the Chase, he's getting bombarded with media questions, "How do you feel about your points lead?" "Can you beat Jimmie for the championship?" Those are the kinds of questions that really get under Mark Martin's skin. You can tell from his answers last week at Kansas he's already let that line of questioning start to bother him a little bit. If he lets it get to him for many more race weeks, he can easily get side tracked into letting that be his focus and not the race car.

It's no secret that some times Martin can be a "glass half-empty" kind of person; he must not let the silly media pressure or questions get to him and bring down his mood. If he chooses to ignore it, his team is good enough to win it and Martin certainly is too. If he lets it get to him, he could doom himself before he even hits the track.

Goodness knows, between now and Homestead the questions are only going to increase. "Does this remind you of 1990 when you almost won the championship?" "Is racing Jimmie Johnson for a championship like racing Dale Earnhardt for one?" The best thing Mark Martin could do is cut down his media obligations to the minimum and spend as much time as possible with his team.

Jimmie Johnson (No Change)
Kansas played out much like we thought it might for Johnson. A strong car to start, led for much of the race, then on the last few runs for some reason the car started to go away. I have no idea what is happening with the No. 48 team but that is now 10 races at intermediate tracks this season, 591 laps and just one top-five finish and no wins.

Clearly they are one of the most dominant cars at these types of tracks but something is missing late in the race. Those numbers need to turn around -- and there's a good chance they will this weekend at California.

Johnson had no doubt the best car this year at both Michigan races and led for a good portion of the California race in February. Plus he is bringing one of his favorite cars this week, the car he won with at Indy; they've been saving it for this race.

One interesting thing to consider when looking at Johnson's California numbers (which look dominant, by the way) is that this race has changed dates. Johnson has really dominated the past two fall races at Fontana but those races were held on Labor Day weekend when the temperatures in Fontana would hover around 100 degrees. This weekend the temps are forecast to be in the low 80s. You have to wonder if that will even the playing field a little more, giving more grip to everybody and taking away some of Johnson's advantage.

Juan Montoya (No Change)
One of the topics of discussion this week in Fontana will be the fact that this slot in the Chase used to belong to the Atlanta Motor Speedway. One of the drivers who will probably lose out in that exchange is Montoya. JPM is terrific at Atlanta, which probably is his best track.

Fontana, however, is not one of the best tracks for the No. 42 team. He finished 11th at Auto Club Speedway in February but he made the point this week that his cars have gotten much better since then. In fact, the car that Montoya is sporting this weekend is his favorite, the one he dominated with at Indy until a speeding penalty ruined his day.

Just like it was a few weeks ago heading into Dover, where JPM had never finished in the top 10 in his career, don't be surprised if JPM finishes top five this week and continues his impressive Chase run.

Tony Stewart (+1)
All the credit in the world goes to Darien Grubb and his call to take two tires at the end of the race at Kansas. That part everybody knows. The part that has not been getting enough ink, in my opinion, is the credit that Stewart deserves. Remember Kasey Kahne and Jimmie Johnson also only took two tires on that final stop but those two finished sixth and ninth. It was Stewart's terrific restart that kept the No. 14 car out front and allowed them to get the win.

Once again, if you finish better than where you actually ran during the race that is a win -- and that's what Stewart and his team did at Kansas.

Clean air will once again mean everything this week at California, if not more than last week at Kansas. Stewart could certainly use that type of advantage again because this specific type of track has not been the best for Stewart this year.

If past history is true, there should not be too many difficult tracks left in the Chase for Stewart and his team. But of the remaining seven tracks, this may be their biggest challenge. It will be interesting to see how the 14 team performs this week and if they are willing to, once again, take some chances at the end of the race.

TIER TWO

Hamlin

Gordon

Denny Hamlin (-1)
Had Johnson not held up Hamlin late in the race at Kansas for a couple of laps, Hamlin may very well have been able to catch Tony Stewart and win last week at Kansas. Hamlin moving down a tier is much less a reflection of the No. 11 team's ability to win races and be competitive but more a reflection of them being 99 points behind and their need to leap frog five other teams to win the championship.

California should prove to be another solid finish for Hamlin. Crew chief Mike Ford is bringing the car Hamlin dominated with at Richmond a few weeks ago and Hamlin has finished third and sixth in his past two Fontana races.

Problem is, as we have talked about, solid top-fives and top-10s will not get it done at this point. Hamlin will need to score some wins and soon if he plans to get Joe Gibbs Racing its fourth Cup Series championship.

However, Hamlin's best chances to win in the Chase might be a few weeks down the road, at Martinsville, Talladega and Phoenix. Between now and then the 11 team must make sure they don't finish out of the top 10 again, like two weeks ago at Dover.

Jeff Gordon (+1)
I knew it was a week too early to move Gordon down one tier yet I did it any way. My bad. Once again Gordon showed terrific resiliency at another intermediate track with the ability to rally from mid-pack at Kansas to score another top-five finish. That's 10 intermediate track races so far this year with one win and six second-place finishes for Gordon. Impressive. I would expect that trend to continue and may be even a little better this week.

I have Gordon as the overall favorite at Fontana, which surprises me that it surprises other people. Gordon finished second at California in the spring and second at both Michigan races; clearly this type of track has been right in Gordon's wheelhouse this season.

Don't be surprised if Gordon takes advantage of his strength and finds a way to gain some ground on the top Chasers.

Busch

TIER THREE

Kurt Busch (No Change)
Busch said this week that his start to the Chase has been good but it will not be good enough to win the championship. Kurt is right. While the championship positioning is good for the No. 2 team, I just question whether or not they will be able to win enough races between now and Homestead to make a legit run at the title.

Intermediate tracks have really been the biggest challenge for the 2 team this year. After their dominating win at Atlanta in March they really have struggled to find consistency at this type of track. Despite finishing fifth at California in February, the next three tracks (Fontana, Charlotte, and Martinsville) might be the toughest challenge in the Chase for Busch.

If Busch is still fifth in the championship standings after Martinsville he might have a decent chance to win this thing, but there's a lot of racing between now and then.

Greg Biffle (+1)
Biffle is still kicking himself for vetoing crew chief Greg Irwin and taking four tires, instead of two, at the end of the Kansas race and in the process taking away any chance they had to win. That of course is the talk around the No. 16 team this week but the bigger picture is that things could finally be headed in the right direction for Roush Fenway Racing.

Biffle gave all of the credit for his good run at Kansas to set-up discoveries that teammate Matt Kenseth made at Dover. But the fact that Roush has found anything to make them faster is a big step forward.

California will be a big litmus test for Roush. As a company they have no doubt struggled this season, but no matter how bad things have been through the years for Roush they have always been able to run well at Fontana. So if the set-up advances that Kenseth found at Dover help this week too, Roush might not be as far gone as everyone thought. If they go to California and stink, expect the personnel changes to start soon at Roush as they turn their attention to 2010.

Vickers

Newman

Edwards

Kahne

TIER FOUR

Brian Vickers (-2)
We said Vickers really had one race to prove himself and Kansas was it. Unfortunately their 37th-place finish was their worst since Daytona in February and it could not have come at a worse time. Wins and top-fives at intermediate tracks were really Vickers only chance to make a run at a championship.

There is still time left for this team to make a run back toward the front in the championship standings, especially with all of the intermediate tracks left on the docket, but an overall series title is all but out of the picture as of last week.

Ryan Newman (-1)
Newman came into Kansas riding the momentum from five consecutive top-10 finishes, but that momentum was not good enough; he struggled all weekend at Kansas.

The intermediate tracks just have not been good to Newman this season and that likely will continue this weekend at California, unfortunately.

At this point 164 points is just too much to make up in a Chase year as competitive as this one.

Carl Edwards (No Change)
Edwards finally was able to crack the top 10 for the first time in almost a month and a half. Normally a 10th-place finish for Edwards in the Chase would be a disappointment but this year it's progress.

Just like his teammate Biffle, California will be a big test to gauge where the No. 99 team really stands. Edwards has simply been terrific during his career at Fontana, where he has only finished out of the top 10 once.

At this point for Edwards and the 99 team it's probably time to focus on 2010 and find something that will make this team, and Roush Racing as a whole, better next season.

Kasey Kahne (No Change)
Kahne has been able to string together back-to-back top-10 finishes and was able to climb out of the Chase cellar after Kansas.

California always has been a strong track for Kahne; he's finished 12th or better in his past four Fontana races. But with 190 points to make up there just isn't enough time for the No. 9 team to make a sincere championship run.