Johnson the favorite at Fontana; Kenseth sweep?

Race No. 4 of the Chase brings us to Auto Club Speedway to form the next piece of the puzzle in this season's quest for the championship. This is the second and final race this season at the huge, sweeping 2-mile oval.

Since it's been a long eight months since the last time the series visited Fontana, we'll cast an eye toward both Michigan races that were held this summer. That 2-mile oval has a lot of the same characteristics as Fontana, so looking at the winners of Michigan International Speedway will hold some useful information for this weekend.

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When we combine the recent hot streaks in the Sprint Cup Series with the three races held this season on these two 2-mile ovals, we'll have the information we need to develop our driver group for Fontana.

Top Fantasy Racing Drivers for Fontana

1. Jimmie Johnson
While Johnson has been held winless on the 2-mile ovals this season, we have to look past that for a couple of reasons. First, the No. 48 team has won two of the past four races at Fontana. Second, its playoff time and the three-time defending champion Johnson is all business during the Chase. Johnson has led well more than 450 laps in his past four races at Fontana. He has a tremendous edge on the field in this race.

2. Matt Kenseth
Kenseth has been hot and cold in the past couple weeks, but we believe there is good reason to rank him this high after his disappointment at Kansas last weekend. Upon examination of the finishing stats and loop stats at Fontana, we find that the Roush Fenway veteran is near flawless at this 2-mile oval. He won the earlier event at Fontana in February of this year, and that was Kenseth's third consecutive top-five at the facility. As the No. 17 team showed us at Dover a couple of weeks ago, there are still plenty of surprises left in this team.

3. Mark Martin
Martin is atop the championship standings and he has to feel confident coming to Fontana this weekend. He already has one victory on a 2-mile oval this season (at Michigan in June) and he would have two were it not for fuel mileage undermining his second race at MIS in August. The No. 5 team brought a terrific car to Fontana in February, but an engine failure cut Martin's day short. This time, with the championship on the line, we'll get to see what Martin can really do at Fontana.

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Mike Bell brings you the picks to click for your fantasy race team this weekend at Fontana.

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4. Greg Biffle
Biffle's career statistics at Fontana are hit-or-miss, but he's almost always shown the ability to lead laps and finish in the top-five at this large oval. The No. 16 team's current hot streak bodes well heading into the Pepsi 500. Biffle carries a two-race top-five streak at Fontana and he has two top-fives in the three 2-mile oval races.

5. Jeff Gordon
Gordon is 3-for-3 in runner-up finishes on the 2-mile ovals this season. We believe he'll extend that top-five streak to four on Sunday afternoon. Gordon has been so close to Victory Lane on these large ovals this season that we wouldn't rule out a possible victory for the Hendrick Motorsports star.

6. Tony Stewart
With his win at Kansas last weekend, Stewart has suddenly thrust himself out of mediocrity and back into the championship picture. We expect a professional like Stewart to show up with his "A" game this week at Fontana, riding the momentum of his win. While we don't expect the No. 14 Chevrolet to be a major threat to win the Pepsi 500, Stewart has shown the resolve to be a top-10 driver on these large ovals.

7. Denny Hamlin
The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team turned in a surprising performance at Kansas. The heartland intermediate oval hasn't been too kind to Hamlin through the years, so the urgency of this driver could be seen in that result. He comes to much friendlier turf this week at Fontana. Hamlin has been pretty consistent on the 2-mile ovals this season, with three consecutive top-10s at both Michigan and Fontana. Currently sitting sixth in the Chase standings at 99 points behind leader Martin, we should see Hamlin pushing that top-five again this weekend.

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8. Brian Vickers
While things have not gone Vickers' way since the Chase started, and the Red Bull Racing driver has slumped to 12th in the standings, there is reason to hope this weekend. The No. 83 Toyota team has been blistering-fast on the 2-mile ovals this season. Vickers' stats between Fontana and Michigan have yielded three poles, one victory and three top-10 finishes. This team has the large ovals figured out, so we expect a hearty rebound effort.

9. Kurt Busch
The championship also will factor into the Penske Racing No. 2 team's performance this weekend. Busch still is in the hunt at Fontana despite the mediocre 11th-place effort at Kansas. He owns two top-10 finishes in the past four races at Fontana. Busch has been pretty steady but unspectacular on these 2-mile ovals this season, but just good enough to crack our power ranking.

10. Juan Montoya
The 2-mile ovals haven't been the kindest to Montoya, but his hot streak entering this event can't be ignored. He's riding a three-race top-five streak since the Chase started and there's lots of momentum behind the No. 42 team coming to Fontana this weekend. Montoya has only one top 10 in the three races at 2-mile ovals this season, but we feel the Earnhardt Ganassi Racing driver will turn things up a notch this Sunday.

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• By the Numbers | Weekend Preview | Inside the Chase