Montoya turning it on in Chase, but still needs a win

1. Juan Montoya is the only driver to post top-five finishes in all three Chase races to date. Does that mean he's progressed from dark horse to favorite?

David Caraviello: He's the same thing he's always been -- the most dangerous driver in the Chase. Hard to call him a favorite with Mark Martin leading the points and Jimmie Johnson lurking. Those two are the favorites. But JPM is right there. They slip and he keeps this up, he could very well win the whole thing. And if that happens, nobody should be surprised.

Dave Rodman: By no means is he the favorite -- that's still the three-time defending champion's domain. And Montoya's no more legitimate than he was in the beginning, though what he has done is prove it to a lot more people.

Joe Menzer: Come on, now. The favorite? That's pushing it, don't you think, for someone who has yet to win a Cup race on an oval? The favorites remain Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin and Tony Stewart, although maybe not in that order. The prohibitive favorite remains Johnson. By a fair amount, too.

David Caraviello: Still -- that No. 42 team said they were going to turn it up a notch in the postseason, and they absolutely have. Juan had what, two top-fives the whole year before the Chase began? And now he has three in three Chase races? Clearly, Brian Pattie and company knew what they had, and were just waiting for the right time to unleash it.

Dave Rodman: I think what Juan has done is emphasize that the champion's average finish is going to be even more outrageous this year than it was the last couple of seasons. As I wrote Tuesday, what we have now is exponentially the best Chase ever (read more), and Montoya is an integral part of it. Now all we need is for Greg Biffle to listen to his crew chief at California and uncork one and we'll downright have a seven-man Chase. And that, boys, is unprecedented.

Joe Menzer: Well, I think it might have more to do with -- and Juan has talked about this -- the pressure they felt of just making the Chase. They were so careful not to take chances that might have involved more risk than potential reward that they weren't as relaxed as they are now. And Juan is driving more aggressively now as a result, too.

David Caraviello: Funny how everyone before New Hampshire thought the champion's average finish would increase from the 5.2 Jimmie recorded last year. Seems like the opposite is happening. Seems like you're going to have to be in or around the top five every week, once again.

Joe Menzer: Those No. 42 guys might just have the right attitude to be there at the end. Their preseason goal was to make the Chase and they did. Now anything they do on top of that is icing on the cake -- but, of course, Juan wants to win races. And remember, he should have won at Indy -- but he blew it by speeding on pit road. Had he won that one, he'd be even closer to the front now.

By the Numbers

Juan Montoya posted nine top-10s in the first 20 races but with no top-fives. Has has five top-fives in nine races since.

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Dave Rodman: Well, if he keeps going like he is, he will win -- and probably a couple. He was crying like a baby with 30 laps to go Sunday, but when it came time to put up or shut up, he shut up and got up on the wheel. As we all know, it was a sight to behold.

Joe Menzer: No question he was the most fun to watch throughout the course of the Kansas race. He was passing guys all over the place ... of course, so was the Biff, who came from 31st at the start.

David Caraviello: Fifty-one points, the gap separating Montoya from Martin, isn't much at this juncture. But with JJ pushing the pack, I still think Juan is going to have to win at some point. Johnson could very well win at California, Charlotte, and Martinsville -- three of his best tracks -- and if he does that, the title is his. It's going to take other drivers getting to Victory Lane to prevent that from happening. And for all JPM has done, can he do that on an oval? We all believe so, but we haven't seen it yet.

Dave Rodman: It will be real interesting to see if the racing we've seen so far this Chase extends to California. God knows it could use it.

David Caraviello: No question, Dave, it's a pivotal weekend for Auto Club Speedway. It needs a good crowd. This is what it wanted -- a Chase date in better weather than it had before. We'll see if it works.

Joe Menzer: As good as Jimmie is, I don't see him winning the next three. Let's not forget that Stewart put himself squarely back in the hunt with his win at Kansas, and you could argue that the top six are still well within striking distance.

Dave Rodman: With the way JJ ran at Kansas -- though it could have been a strategic gaffe, I guess -- if Juan rings up 10 top-fives, and with the way Mark Martin is running, I'd stack that up against anybody for the championship. Like I said, the best Chase of the six, by far.

Related
• Why Johnson should win it ... and why he may not

2. Is it a big deal that the teams of Chase leaders Mark Martin and Jimmie Johnson were warned by NASCAR for being too close to tolerance limits?

Joe Menzer: To me, that story was much ado about nothing. Now I'm not saying it shouldn't have been reported and that we in the media should not have sought reactions from all those in and around the garage, who seemed to have differing opinions about it. That was warranted. But in the end, they were legal.

David Caraviello: Welcome to the runaway candidate for Most Overrated Story of the Year. Seriously, in almost every sport, officials give warnings to teams. Heck, even the Highway Patrol will give you a warning every now and then. But only in NASCAR is this a major story, with hordes of media hunting down the principals. A complete non-issue. They're either legal or they're not. And they were legal. Oh, and they were legal again Tuesday, according to NASCAR, which took the 5 and 48 cars back to the R&D Center post-Kansas for a second look.

Dave Rodman: They were legal, but they were warned. I dare say -- though I have no direct knowledge -- that this was how the really badly offset standard cars started. Also, how the cambered rear-end snafu began, too.

Joe Menzer: What? By crew chiefs and teams pushing the tolerance limits? No kidding. But that's NASCAR, folks. It always has been and always will be. Give the kids a box to play in, and they soon will be testing how far they can push out on the edges to build more speed into it. That's the way it should be. And that's why my reaction to the how 5/48 deal is, good for them. That's why they run up front all the time. Their teams are pushing the envelope the most.

Dave Rodman: The fact NASCAR specifically stepped out of the envelope and took those two cars, again, this week was significant -- if only as a wake-up call. It's hard to believe anyone could get themselves in a position of running afoul of the rules with this car, but they were close. Hell, they were probably even closer than they wanted to be. Well -- maybe not!

Joe Menzer: Did Junior Johnson push the envelope back in the day? Heck, he obliterated the envelope! And has been celebrated for skirting the rules. That's why I find it hard to swallow when folks want to paint Chad Knaus as some evil villain these days! He is doing what he's paid to do. Pushing it as far as he can to gain as much of an edge as he can.

David Caraviello: I think it shows some of the myopia of the NASCAR community that "warnings" are a big story. Heck, how many times are Major League Baseball pitchers warned about throwing too far inside, or throwing at somebody? Happens all the time. How often do football and basketball coaches get warnings? All the time. But only in NASCAR is a "warning" considered a story on a par with the Pentagon Papers, with people spinning conspiracy theories worthy of the X-Files. Goodness, some people need to take off the blinders.

Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin have survived the Claw to race another day.

Dave Rodman: Walking that minefield that's known as the gray area is where it's at. But again, it'll be interesting to see how the 5 and 48 end up this weekend. I think that will put it to bed once and for all.

Joe Menzer: No, it won't! You know there are some who won't let this go! And next time one of them wins, there still will be whispers. But until they're found to be illegal -- and not just getting close -- it should be a non-issue. I guess the one aspect of this we should note is that I believe I was told that NASCAR warned them not to bring those cars back to the track in the same state. But if that's true, then I don't get it. Either you're illegal or you're not. Being close does not constitute being illegal.

David Caraviello: Dave, if you're referring to inspection, let me repeat: NASCAR says they were legal after Kansas. Why on earth would NASCAR suddenly let Chad Knaus slide when they've hammered him over and over again through the years? Oh, but there's a championship at stake, people say. Yeah, just like there was in 2005 when Mark Martin got 25 points taken away with two weeks to go. None of that makes any sense.

Dave Rodman: If you listened to [Sprint Cup Series director John] Darby's explanation, it was kind of fascinating, like, "don't take for granted your close-to-tolerance measurement is going to match ours." I can't imagine the Gazaway brothers, God bless 'em, being that benevolent. Then again, the whole rules package then was almost rule of thumb anyhow, so apples to pineapples, that comparison is.

David Caraviello: Joe, that No. 48 car from Dover will be back at Charlotte. Knaus said so last week. I'm sure the black helicopter crowd will be a aflutter when it happens.

Joe Menzer: Yes, but probably not quite in the same exact state as it was. Then again ... who knows?

Dave Rodman: The Claw knows.

Joe Menzer: The Claw?

Dave Rodman: The template package.

David Caraviello: That was Rodman's nickname as a standout linebacker in high school. Everyone feared the Claw!

Related
• With Knaus, it's time to stop assuming the worst

3. NASCAR has at last announced standard starting times for Sprint Cup events -- after 1 p.m. for Eastern races, after 3 p.m. for West Coast races, 7:30 p.m. for night events. A good move?

Dave Rodman: Remains to be seen, like so many things -- but you can't help but think it's a great step in the right direction.

Comfort zone

More standardized TV times comes with the green flag dropping within 20 minutes of the posted broadcast time.

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David Caraviello: Oh, praise the Almighty. You mean no more 2:38 start times for an Eastern race? Thank goodness. Fans hate it -- and I mean HATE it -- when they don't know when the race is on. The past few years, figuring out start times has been tougher than cracking the DaVinci Code. Finally, some common sense has prevailed.

Joe Menzer: Praise the Lord and pass the buttered biscuits! This is a great thing, at least for us journalists. More importantly, I think it's a great move for the fans, too, who will not have to scramble to find out when the races are starting from week to week.

Dave Rodman: This is a hard one for me to relate to, because this is what we get paid to do, so that makes it pretty simple -- you're paid to know what times the races are. But for the fans, who just might have better things to do, or more options to distract them, this is a potential boon.

David Caraviello: Still, Dave, how many times are we told "2 p.m." only for the green flag to actually wave at something like 2:46? It's ridiculous. We don't need pre-race shows that stretch into the late afternoon. Show us the damn race. And finally they will.

Joe Menzer: Um, Roadman, I'm not saying we as journalists don't know what the start times are. But are you saying you wouldn't like to get done a little earlier on Sunday nights, when sometimes we don't leave the track until four hours or more after an event?

Dave Rodman: Joe, I can't believe I'm making this argument, when I'm compromising our stool time at the diner in Greensboro -- but whatever it is, it is because I'm still getting paid; and we're blessed to have flexible enough travel parameters that you don't have to fly at 7 a.m. after getting in at midnight, or 2 a.m.

Joe Menzer: Bottom line anyway is that the people out there don't care how late we work. So I'm not going to debate it any longer. But I'm on record as being happy about it.

David Caraviello: And Dave, those NASCAR fans surely like a little more daylight in which to drive home on Sunday night. It's a courtesy for everyone.

Writer's Block

Whether on a stool somewhere in Greensboro or any stop along NASCAR's way, Dave Rodman knows were to find good eats.

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Dave Rodman: But again -- we're getting distracted by insider humor. This is about the fans, the working men and women who make this sport go, along with their kids who just as surely have to be in school on Monday as mom and dad might have to be at work. All the way around, I think it's a great thing, and now I hope the populace responds. Though we're going to have to see what it translates to in terms of attendance and ratings. It's not a one-stop fix, either.

Joe Menzer: No, but it could help. And people have been complaining about it. Like with the double-file restarts, it seems NASCAR is starting to listen a little more to complaints and trying to be more proactive about responding to them. Not a bad thing at all.

David Caraviello: No, it's not a panacea, but it certainly helps. Why is the NFL so popular? Because everybody loves the game, for sure. But also because everybody knows when the games are on: 1 p.m., 4 p.m., Sunday night and Monday night. Every week. Like clockwork. You want viewers? That's how you do it. Not by telling people the race will start at 1:30 and throwing the green at 2:17. And given how TV ratings have slipped, it's high time the networks realized it.

Dave Rodman: The NFL is so popular because you can bet on it. Or I'd say a combination of betting and fantasy games -- which with what I know about them, are just another form of wagering.

David Caraviello: Dave "the Claw" Rodman evidently took too many blows to the head. He's clearly lost his senses.

Joe Menzer: The Claw obviously never played linebacker in high school. Heck, they may not have played high-school football back then.

Dave Rodman: Sandlots, baby --- that was tons of fun. I used to love football. It's the equivalent of background noise now. But then again, you get a show like the Packers and Vikings -- now, that's football.

David Caraviello: How much money did you win on that one, Dave?

The opinions expressed are solely those of the participants.