Five guys remain in quest for '09 Cup championship

No. The Chase is not over. Why is it when Jimmie Johnson wins, everybody wants to immediately anoint him as champion? Is it so drilled into everyone's head that Johnson will be the champ that not a question of if, but when? Sorry, I still don't buy into that theory.

This week marks the halfway point in the Chase. For now, I think there is way too much racing left to give the title to anyone, talk to me in four weeks and I might believe. Why four weeks? I think the next three weeks could bring about the most change in the 2009 Chase.

Of course, you have Talladega in three weeks, the ever-present Chase wild card. Martinsville is just two weeks away and for most, that will be their biggest challenge in the Chase. But this week's race at Lowe's Motor Speedway presents it's own surprising set of challenges. It's interesting how the top tier of chasers have struggled of late at Charlotte.

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So change could be coming at the top sooner than you think. One thing is for sure, the picture will clear up within the next few weeks. If a driver can survive the next three races with a top-five each week, there's a good chance that will be your champion in 2009. Here's this week's Chase Tiering.

TIER ONE

Mark Martin (No Change)

Mark Martin continues to show that consistent top-10 finishes in this year's Chase is guaranteed to lose you about five points a race. All Martin did at Fontana was finish fourth and lose the championship lead. What kind of world are we living in? Seriously, the pace being set this year is incredible.

For this week's car, Alan Gustafson has chosen to go back to a proven winner, the car Martin won with at Michigan earlier this year and finished second with a few weeks ago at Dover. The plan is also to take this car to Texas in a few weeks. It's nice when you can count on a car like that for more than a few races in the Chase.

Normally when you talk about these top Chasers, you can see their clear advantage at each track. They rarely finish out of the top10. In fact, the last time Martin finished out of the top 10 this year was Michigan in August, seven races ago, when he ran out of fuel while running ... in the top 10.

The No. 5 team is truly hitting their stride at the right time. As we mentioned above, however, Martin is among the many that have struggled lately at Charlotte. At this track, Martin has just one top-10 finish in his last six Charlotte races and that was ninth in this race last year. Martin has always told me that Charlotte is his favorite track on the circuit and he has four wins here, but lately this track has not returned the affinity.

Jimmie Johnson (No Change)

Surely the same can't be true for his teammate Jimmie Johnson, right? After all, Lowe's Motor Speedway is "his house." Sure Johnson has been dominant in the past at LMS, but since the introduction of the new car and the repaving of the surface at Lowe's, the No. 48 team has lost a bit of their edge on their home turf.

Johnson has just one top-10 in his last four races at Charlotte, despite the fact that he led a decent portion in most of those races. Is this something that Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus are worried about? Likely not, they have consistently shown the ability to step up their game in these final 10 races.

And Johnson says his Lowe's slump is mostly because the new surface has taken away some of his secret lines over the bumps in the turns but he points out that he has learned a lot in the last few races at Lowe's and he thinks that advantage might be coming back to him. I would bet, however, that there is a little more doubt in Johnson's mind heading to Charlotte than there was last week heading to California.

Juan Montoya (No Change)

Speaking of the ability to step up your game. Juan Montoya and Brian Pattie continue to impress in the Chase. Four races down and four top-fives. If there is a type of race track that fits JPM's style, this is it. But like the other top tier of chasers, this has not been JPM's best track, he has just one career top-10 at Lowe's, eighth here this spring.

JPM however has shown the ability to produce career best results each week in the Chase with an average finish of 3.5. While Charlotte will certainly be a challenge, the race this team is truly worried about is next week at Martinsville. Not that they would look forward but no doubt the No. 42 team's very, very large hurdle will be at the Virginia half mile. "How worried are you about next week at Martinsville?" That is a question that JPM will be asked 100 times between now and next Sunday. He cannot allow the looming challenge to be a distraction.

Tony Stewart (No Change)

How about Tony Stewart? He no doubt has been successful lately at Lowe's Motor Speedway, right? Actually the answer is yes ... sort of. Much like Johnson, Stewart has led a lot of laps at Charlotte but like everybody else he has not had the finishes he would like. In his last nine races at Charlotte, Stewart has just two top-10 finishes, that dates back to 2004 to save you from doing the math.

For some reason this race track has never been Stewart's best. With his best race tracks still to come in the Chase -- Martinsville, Talladega, Texas and Phoenix -- this weekend at Charlotte may very well be Stewart's biggest challenge left in 2009. Contrary to what we have been saying for weeks, a solid top-10 for Stewart this week would be nice. This is likely not the week for Tony Stewart to gain a lot of points.

TIER TWO

Jeff Gordon (No Change)

Jeff Gordon is all by himself in Tier 2. The reason? Despite back-to-back second-place finishes he still has a ton of ground to make up ... 105 points to be exact. But if Gordon is able make up a chunk of ground in one race -- and he will need to do that in order to win the championship -- this week might be his best shot.

Unlike the top tier of Chasers, Gordon has been spectacular at Lowe's Motor Speedway of late. Gordon has three top-10s in his last four Charlotte races and it would have been 4-for-4 had they not decided to pit just before the rain came during the Coca-Cola 600 in May.

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There is no doubt that the intermediate tracks have been the strength of the No. 24 team in 2009. Surely after eight second-place finishes, at some point one of those is going to turn into a win. That's why, once again this week, I have Gordon as my top overall favorite to win on Saturday night.

TIER THREE

Unfortunately everyone from Tier 3 down has very little chance (which means no chance, I am just trying to cover myself here) to win the championship. The 2009 championship has five legitimate contenders left.

Denny Hamlin (-1)

With one failed move, it is likely over for Denny Hamlin. His championship hopes are all but gone. Hamlin was man enough to admit his mistake when he tried to pull down in front of Juan Montoya while leading on one of the final restarts at Fontana. Trust me, this one will be tough to get over.

After spending some time with Hamlin this week, he is still replaying it over and over in his mind with one question ... why? That is a question, unfortunately, that he will have to live with for the rest of his career. Because if Hamlin holds on to finish in the top three of last week's race, he is still a big part of the championship conversation this week. Despite how tough it may be though, Hamlin must avoid the post-crash hangover and move on ... some of his best tracks in the Chase are coming up.

Among the guys who are in the bottom half of the points standings, Hamlin has the best chance to make a run towards the top five during the remaining races. Virtually every track lays out well for Hamlin. His biggest challenge in the remaining six might be this weekend. Throughout his career Hamlin has struggled at Charlotte but recently the performance has improved.

This week crew chief Mike Ford is bringing the car they debuted at New Hampshire that finished second to start the Chase and then went on to finish fifth at Kansas. Finishing 22nd at Dover and 37th at California is too big of a hole to climb out of to win the championship but don't be surprised if Hamlin gains back the three spots he lost last week in the championship standings and then some in the next few weeks.

Kurt Busch (-1)

What started out as a solid Chase for the No. 2 team has turned into a series of just decent races after finishes of 11th and eighth the past two weeks. We have been saying it for weeks, decent will not cut it this year, and for Kurt Busch it only gets worse. The next two races are his biggest challenges of the Chase.

Charlotte has never been KB's best track, in his past seven races at LMS he has four finishes of 32nd or worse and just one top-10, yikes! That one top-10 came in this race last year when Kurt got out of the car and said, "I have no idea where that came from." Even if they can once again pull off surprise runs in the next two weeks, 121 points is just too much for the No. 2 team to overcome.

Greg Biffle (No Change)
Carl Edwards (+1)

For Greg Biffle the frustration is starting to show through, as is the realization that his championship hopes are gone. Meanwhile, for his teammate Carl Edwards, things are looking up after a sixth-place finish at California. For Edwards that is three consecutive finishes of 11th or better. The No. 99 team hasn't put together a streak like that since early June!

I lump these two together because the only way Roush is going to get back to the front is if their teams work together to figure out why they cannot consistently put cars in the top five at the same time. This season has been just so confusing for the entire Roush organization. They go to tracks where they are supposed to run well and they don't. Then out of nowhere they put a car in the top five. Trust me, general manager Robbie Reiser is pulling his hair out trying to figure things out at Roush but it has been tough.

One person within the Roush organization described it to me like they are just trying to grab onto anything positive. "That guy ran well? Go find out what it was, let's put it on everything." It's not desperation mode at Roush but it's close. Problem is there aren't many more "test sessions" left in 2009 that will allow them to make improvements for 2010.

TIER FOUR

Brian Vickers (No Change)

No matter how bad things have been in Brian Vickers career, he's always been able to make things right at the Lowe's Motor Speedway. That is the one shinning light of hope for Vickers who has just been pitiful so far in the Chase after such a fairy tale entry into the playoffs.

Uncharacteristically, Vickers has really struggled at the intermediate tracks in the Chase. Finishing out of the top 20 not because of issues on the track but because that is where they ran during the race. That is not the No. 83 team we saw in the final few races before the Chase. The best thing the No. 83 team can do now? Figure out where the team that fought there way into the Chase went because in just four weeks this team has done a 180.

Ryan Newman (No Change)

Maybe I've spent too much time with Ryan Newman this week, maybe I just drank the Kool-Aid, but Ryan Newman honestly has me convinced he will run well this week at Charlotte. Traditionally this has been one of Newman's best tracks from the early days of his career. But even if Newman runs well at Charlotte, this team needs to figure out their consistency. Their weak link has been this type of track so any information they can pick up this weekend for 2010 will help. Also helping the boss man Tony Stewart in any way you can doesn't hurt either.

Kasey Kahne (No Change)

Last but not least we come to a guy who I think will actually have a really good race on Saturday night. For all of the talk we have laid down about how the Chasers have struggled at Lowe's, Kasey Kahne is the shining exception. In his last seven Charlotte races Kahne has three wins and six top-10 finishes.

Despite not knowing what cars he will drive next year, who his teammates will be next year, who his owners will be next year and all of that other nonsense, you have to give Kahne and Kenny Francis credit for not getting caught up in all of that mess and just focusing on their job. Don't be surprised if Kahne wins Saturday night. Oh by the way, even if he does win, he still won't win the championship ... sorry.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.