Smack: Hard to bet against Jimmie when he's out front

1. Jimmie Johnson is once again at the top of the points standings. Is the Chase over?

Mark Aumann: Not by a long shot. Martinsville and Talladega are still looming out there, and it's cliché to say anything can happen there, but anything can happen there. However, if Jimmie's still in front with three to go, he's got to be the odds-on favorite.

David Caraviello: Over? That may be a touch premature, given how narrow the point gaps still are. The 12 points between him and Mark Martin obviously aren't that much. But the dude is a closer, like Tiger Woods on Sundays. Now that he has the lead, you fully expect him to build on it.

Joe Menzer: You know, I want to say no. I yearn to say no. I want to say that Mark Martin, Juan Montoya, Tony Stewart, and maybe even Jeff Gordon have a chance to put an end to J.J.'s streak of titles. But the fact is, I just don't think the 48 team is going to mess up now that they're out front.

Mark Aumann: Is anybody else surprised that Hendrick -- Johnson, Martin, Gordon, and Stewart as a satellite team -- basically has the Chase surrounded? Poor Juan Montoya must feel like he's General Custer at the Little Big Horn. And what does it tell you about things when Montoya can post four consecutive top-fives ... and still lose ground?

David Caraviello: Mark, I'll agree with you about Talladega. But let's face it, Johnson could be on a three-race win streak by then and have enough of a lead to withstand whatever might happen in north Alabama.

Joe Menzer: That's the thing. No matter how good the rest of the guys are the rest of the way, they need the 48 team to have a bad day or two. It certainly could happen -- especially at a place like Talladega -- but their track record in the Chase is so good that you've got to figure they're going to build on their lead from here and win going away. It's sort of like this new car in clean air. Once Jimmie and the 48 is in clean air in the Chase, good-bye to the rest of the field. That includes Montoya, who nonetheless has been impressive and -- well, let's say it again -- looks like it's only a matter of time until he wins on an oval. But no matter what he does, he's not moving up unless, or until, Jimmie falls back.

Mark Aumann: Somebody described this year's Chase as being on a treadmill where somebody keeps increasing the speed, and it's just a matter of time before somebody slips and falls off, like George Jetson walking Astro. Ruh-roh, Rorge! I wonder if Juan Montoya knows who George Jetson and Astro are?

David Caraviello: It is amazing -- JPM has an average finish of what, three-point-something in the first four Chase races, and he keeps losing ground to Johnson. Everybody said the average finish would go up, that Jimmie can't possibly do this again, not in this deep of a Chase field. Well, he is.

Mark Aumann: The opinion has always been that everyone will have at least one bad race. But I'm beginning to see the fallacy in that theory. For Montoya to win this thing, he not only has to keep overachieving, but hope three other drivers slip up. That may be asking a lot, when the Hendrick guys just don't make a lot of mistakes. Or at least three out of four don't.

Joe Menzer: I should point out that I'm not necessarily rooting against Johnson. That's another Catch-22 with the guy. He's such a nice guy who does all the right things and, according to crew chief Chad Knaus, outworks all the other drivers in his preparation. So the argument could be made that no one deserves the title more. And four in a row is an accomplishment that speaks for itself, in that it's never been done before. But ... would it be better for NASCAR to have someone else win a championship for a change?

By the Numbers

Jimmie Johnson is out front and some are ready to give him the trophy. But twice in Chase history the eventual champion wasn't leading after four races.

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David Caraviello: And on the subject of Johnson, here's the scary thing: every year, the Chase has gotten a little bit easier for him. He's gone from the big comeback in 2006 to the relatively close win over Gordon in 2007 to the largest Chase lead anybody's ever had last year. And now, we're not even halfway through the thing, and he's back in control. He could win this thing by 150 points.

Mark Aumann: I still think Mark Martin's going to be there at Homestead. But he may not be close enough to Johnson to rattle his cage, so to speak.

David Caraviello: Nobody rattles Jimmie Johnson's cage. Not this time of year, at least!

Joe Menzer: The hope is that at least one or two guys can stay close to keep this thing relatively interesting. So far, it actually has been, I think, a very intriguing Chase. But if J.J. starts running away with it and no one else is within realistic striking distance going into the last two or three races, or even the finale at Homestead, who's going to be watching besides us?

Mark Aumann: Here's an odd thought: How much is Jimmie Johnson like Joe Montana, a guy who seems unflappable in pressure situations. When Montana had the ball in the final two minutes, you knew his team was going to score. And yet, Jimmie talked about being nervous at Fontana. What's up with that? Is that just a case of being completely prepared for any circumstance?

David Caraviello: I think he's toying with the field. The stuff about inspection, complaints about his tire test at Dover -- he has everybody's head spinning.

Joe Menzer: Yeah, it was pointed out to me by someone after Kansas that perhaps Mr. Johnson plays the finest mind game of all by pretending he doesn't really play mind games! When, in reality, that's what he's doing with his comments about the inspection of his car, the tire test at Dover, nerves, etc.

Mark Aumann: Well, Foreigner did have a song called "Head Games," and they played before the race at Auto Club Speedway.

David Caraviello: Speaking of Auto Club Speedway .... (Continued)