Smack: Hard to bet against Jimmie when he's out front

1. Jimmie Johnson is once again at the top of the points standings. Is the Chase over?

Mark Aumann: Not by a long shot. Martinsville and Talladega are still looming out there, and it's cliché to say anything can happen there, but anything can happen there. However, if Jimmie's still in front with three to go, he's got to be the odds-on favorite.

David Caraviello: Over? That may be a touch premature, given how narrow the point gaps still are. The 12 points between him and Mark Martin obviously aren't that much. But the dude is a closer, like Tiger Woods on Sundays. Now that he has the lead, you fully expect him to build on it.

Joe Menzer: You know, I want to say no. I yearn to say no. I want to say that Mark Martin, Juan Montoya, Tony Stewart, and maybe even Jeff Gordon have a chance to put an end to J.J.'s streak of titles. But the fact is, I just don't think the 48 team is going to mess up now that they're out front.

Mark Aumann: Is anybody else surprised that Hendrick -- Johnson, Martin, Gordon, and Stewart as a satellite team -- basically has the Chase surrounded? Poor Juan Montoya must feel like he's General Custer at the Little Big Horn. And what does it tell you about things when Montoya can post four consecutive top-fives ... and still lose ground?

David Caraviello: Mark, I'll agree with you about Talladega. But let's face it, Johnson could be on a three-race win streak by then and have enough of a lead to withstand whatever might happen in north Alabama.

Joe Menzer: That's the thing. No matter how good the rest of the guys are the rest of the way, they need the 48 team to have a bad day or two. It certainly could happen -- especially at a place like Talladega -- but their track record in the Chase is so good that you've got to figure they're going to build on their lead from here and win going away. It's sort of like this new car in clean air. Once Jimmie and the 48 is in clean air in the Chase, good-bye to the rest of the field. That includes Montoya, who nonetheless has been impressive and -- well, let's say it again -- looks like it's only a matter of time until he wins on an oval. But no matter what he does, he's not moving up unless, or until, Jimmie falls back.

Mark Aumann: Somebody described this year's Chase as being on a treadmill where somebody keeps increasing the speed, and it's just a matter of time before somebody slips and falls off, like George Jetson walking Astro. Ruh-roh, Rorge! I wonder if Juan Montoya knows who George Jetson and Astro are?

David Caraviello: It is amazing -- JPM has an average finish of what, three-point-something in the first four Chase races, and he keeps losing ground to Johnson. Everybody said the average finish would go up, that Jimmie can't possibly do this again, not in this deep of a Chase field. Well, he is.

Mark Aumann: The opinion has always been that everyone will have at least one bad race. But I'm beginning to see the fallacy in that theory. For Montoya to win this thing, he not only has to keep overachieving, but hope three other drivers slip up. That may be asking a lot, when the Hendrick guys just don't make a lot of mistakes. Or at least three out of four don't.

Joe Menzer: I should point out that I'm not necessarily rooting against Johnson. That's another Catch-22 with the guy. He's such a nice guy who does all the right things and, according to crew chief Chad Knaus, outworks all the other drivers in his preparation. So the argument could be made that no one deserves the title more. And four in a row is an accomplishment that speaks for itself, in that it's never been done before. But ... would it be better for NASCAR to have someone else win a championship for a change?

By the Numbers

Jimmie Johnson is out front and some are ready to give him the trophy. But twice in Chase history the eventual champion wasn't leading after four races.

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David Caraviello: And on the subject of Johnson, here's the scary thing: every year, the Chase has gotten a little bit easier for him. He's gone from the big comeback in 2006 to the relatively close win over Gordon in 2007 to the largest Chase lead anybody's ever had last year. And now, we're not even halfway through the thing, and he's back in control. He could win this thing by 150 points.

Mark Aumann: I still think Mark Martin's going to be there at Homestead. But he may not be close enough to Johnson to rattle his cage, so to speak.

David Caraviello: Nobody rattles Jimmie Johnson's cage. Not this time of year, at least!

Joe Menzer: The hope is that at least one or two guys can stay close to keep this thing relatively interesting. So far, it actually has been, I think, a very intriguing Chase. But if J.J. starts running away with it and no one else is within realistic striking distance going into the last two or three races, or even the finale at Homestead, who's going to be watching besides us?

Mark Aumann: Here's an odd thought: How much is Jimmie Johnson like Joe Montana, a guy who seems unflappable in pressure situations. When Montana had the ball in the final two minutes, you knew his team was going to score. And yet, Jimmie talked about being nervous at Fontana. What's up with that? Is that just a case of being completely prepared for any circumstance?

David Caraviello: I think he's toying with the field. The stuff about inspection, complaints about his tire test at Dover -- he has everybody's head spinning.

Joe Menzer: Yeah, it was pointed out to me by someone after Kansas that perhaps Mr. Johnson plays the finest mind game of all by pretending he doesn't really play mind games! When, in reality, that's what he's doing with his comments about the inspection of his car, the tire test at Dover, nerves, etc.

Mark Aumann: Well, Foreigner did have a song called "Head Games," and they played before the race at Auto Club Speedway.

David Caraviello: Speaking of Auto Club Speedway ....

2. Auto Club Speedway's first Chase race didn't exactly produce the attendance benchmarks the track had hoped for. Is it time to move one race from Fontana somewhere else?

Joe Menzer: Well, Mark, you were there. How bad was the attendance, really? It looked pretty bad on television for sure.

Mark Aumann: It was bad. Probably half-full, about the same as in February. And definitely smaller than it's been since I first started going there. You can blame the economy, but places like Detroit, Las Vegas and Phoenix are perhaps worse off.

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David Caraviello: Let's face it, in this economy, there are a lot of race tracks -- a lot of sports stadiums, period -- that are underperforming. You can't move events around based on attendance in the worst financial downturn since the Great Depression. No question, Fontana hasn't produced like people thought it would, even with a Chase race. But let's wait for the economy to improve, and see what happens there, before we do anything rash.

Mark Aumann: Well, as much as I love the racing, I still believe at least one of Martinsville's dates is probably up for grabs in 2011. Having said that, Fontana continues to be a head-scratcher. You've got, what, 15 million people within 90 miles of the place and you can't sell 90,000 tickets?

Joe Menzer: Guys, guys. You are either way too nice or just dead wrong. No track deserves to lose a date more than California. If I were running NASCAR, which I'm obviously not, I couldn't move a race out of there fast enough.

Mark Aumann: And if you use Atlanta as the benchmark -- and Atlanta's March attendance was pitiful but the Labor Day event was impressive -- things aren't that great. I just think with races there, Las Vegas and Phoenix, the market may be oversaturated now.

David Caraviello: And Las Vegas and Phoenix do much better at the turnstiles -- or have, at least, historically. California is just a strange place. I agree fully with Jeff Gordon -- it's not the facility. The people there just haven't embraced it at the level many thought they would. It's past time for the folks at International Speedway Corp. and NASCAR to come to grips with that fact.

Joe Menzer: Right. And move one of the dates outta there! Pronto!

David Caraviello: Dang, Joe is playing the Turk this morning. The Jim Lippincott of race tracks!

Mark Aumann: But how you do pull out of the country's No. 2 market? Of course, I guess the answer is: The NFL did it, and look how much it's affected them. I looked at attendance for the Dodgers and Angels playoff games -- if we're comparing "postseasons" -- and they had capacity crowds. There's just a disconnect between the speedway and the fan base.

Joe Menzer: Here's the real problem: where does the date go if they take one away from Auto Club Speedway? I guess the answer, assuming they get approval on that new casino-hotel overlooking Turn 2, is Kansas. But it would be better if one went to Kentucky Speedway or a second date went to Vegas. And those latter two facilities are SMI-owned, and ISC will never give them one of their track's dates.

Mark Aumann: Well, I still think Atlanta's spring date is in doubt.

Joe Menzer: Agreed on that one. And rightly so. I think that will be better for everyone, including Atlanta as they try to build on what was a super first Labor Day race.

David Caraviello: The NFL has been banging on the door to get back in ever since the Rams left for St. Louis, but the community there seems in no rush to give the league what it wants. Sports entities fail for a lot of reasons. There's no common thread. But the fact that Southern California has run through two NFL franchises and two major NASCAR race tracks should tell you something.

Mark Aumann: David, one of the odd coincidences is that Ontario and Fontana were both built in the middle of the track-building boom, and both were hurt by recession. Because of its debt, Ontario was doomed to fail before they even hosted a race.

David Caraviello: Hey, let's see if Atlanta can roll some of its momentum into that spring date before we give it the axe. And remember, there is still a recession going on. As much as everyone seems to love Kentucky Speedway, is it smart to move another race into the Rust Belt, given all that's going on with unemployment and the automotive industry in that part of the world?

Mark Aumann: The most interesting issue with revamping the schedule is finding enough warm-weather dates to fill in February and March. If you axe California and Atlanta, you can't move Kentucky and Kansas in there without snowplows.

Joe Menzer: Bottom line is that Atlanta made good on their end of the switch of dates, when California couldn't make the Labor Day date work. Or any other date, for that matter. But I would argue that in some ways Atlanta was successful on Labor Day because they put all of their focus on that race over the spring event. I was at the spring event, and it was like they were just waiting for it to get over so they could really sink their teeth into promoting Labor Day. And it showed on both ends.

Mark Aumann: Well, you were just there for the Varsity hot dogs.

Joe Menzer: Unfortunately, I haven't hit the Varsity in years! Maybe that's the problem with Atlanta -- the Varsity is way too far away from the track!

3. Despite a bout with the flu, Kyle Busch is closing in on a Nationwide Series championship. Would that make up for his woes on the Cup side?

Mark Aumann: For crazy Kyle to climb out of a car two races in a row before the halfway mark, you know he had to be way past ill. Hopefully he's had a chance to rest up and get better, because he was three sheets to the wind at Fontana.

Joe Menzer: No doubt it eases some of the pain caused by failure to make the Chase on the Cup side, but not all of it. I think it will be more a feeling of relief, almost like, "OK, now I can tick this off my resume." But they were expecting to be contending for the Cup championship right about now, and that's no doubt a major disappointment.

Nationwide Series

Standings

Pos.	Driver	Behind
1.	Kyle Busch	--
2.	Carl Edwards	-155
3.	Brad Keselowski	-227
4.	Jason Leffler	-857
5.	Justin Allgaier	-1,304
6.	Steve Wallace	-1,356
7.	Jason Keller	-1,426
8.	Mike Bliss	-1,465
9.	Brendan Gaughan	-1,524
10.	Michael McDowell	-1,718

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David Caraviello: I don't know if one would make up for the other, but Kyle clearly places an emphasis on winning in the Nationwide tour. I think he may enjoy racing there more than on the Cup tour, given the differences in the car and the series' lower profile. And let's remember, for all he's accomplished, the guy still hasn't won a title in one of NASCAR's national divisions. This would be his first. I think he obviously wants that.

Mark Aumann: Winning the Nationwide title would be a nice trophy on the mantle, but missing the Chase has to be a stinging rebuke for a guy who prides himself on thumbing his nose at the naysayers. Do you realize that because Kyle doesn't turn 25 until next year, he still can't rent a car in his own name? The guy drives 190 mph at Talladega and needs to be 25 to get a rental. That Hertz.

Joe Menzer: You know, He's still so young. Sometimes we forget how young he is. But even with all that youth on his side, you have to wonder sometimes if he's working so hard by racing all across the board that it wears him down toward the end of these seasons. That probably has little or nothing to do with his current illness, but still, you have to wonder.

David Caraviello: I believe he's stated he won't run Nationwide full-time next year, so a championship would be a good way to go out. And let's not forget Kyle has won four times this season on the Cup tour, more than most guys running for the championship. But they clearly got off track the second half of the year, and haven't been able to get it back again.

Joe Menzer: To be honest, I think the way they are running now versus the way Jimmie and others are running in the Chase only verifies that the 18 team just didn't deserve to get into the Chase this year, despite the four victories. They weren't consistent enough and certainly aren't building any positive momentum now -- even after J.D. Gibbs' declaration that they would get after it in the Chase and seriously go all-out for wins given that they had nothing to lose.

Mark Aumann: Joe, the thought about Kyle maybe overextending himself occurred to me, too. Was he more susceptible to getting sick because he has less time to recover? My guess is no. When you're 24, you feel like you can do anything. And he won't be the only driver to wind up with the flu. Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants if one of the Chase contenders comes down with H1N1 before Homestead?

David Caraviello: Well, let's hope that doesn't happen. But given that everybody basically lives in the same rolling neighborhood for 38 weeks a year, it seems very possible that the bug could make its rounds through the driver/owner motor home lot. Time to stock up on hand sanitizer!

Joe Menzer: I know some strain of something has been running through my household of late. I'd better not shake hands with anybody this weekend at Lowe's Motor Speedway.

David Caraviello: Thanks for that. I'll remember to bring my surgical mask.

Mark Aumann: The Menzer Strain. Sounds like a sci-fi movie. Or a kitchen appliance sold on late-night TV.

David Caraviello: Perfect for draining steamed vegetables!

Mark Aumann: But wait! There's more!

Joe Menzer: When they start passing out little bottles of hand sanitizer at tracks instead of packs of gum and Slim Jims, we'll know times have changed for sure.

David Caraviello: At least they got rid of the cigarettes.

Mark Aumann: Hey, one health issue at a time.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.