Martinsville or Talladega: Which is true wild card?

1. Which upcoming Chase track is the bigger wild card: Martinsville or Talladega?

Joe Menzer: Talladega. Nothing is wilder as a wild card than 'Dega. But Martinsville is a close second, and that's where the double-file restarts could prove to be wildest of all in this Chase.

David Caraviello: Martinsville is a great little short track where all kinds of things can happen, but I'm not sure it's the wild card people make it out to be. As Jimmie Johnson has proven in recent years, you get out front, you can kind of control your own destiny there. Not so much the case at Talladega, which often seems downright arbitrary.

Mark Aumann: You can get wrecked through no fault of your own at either venue, but I still believe Talladega is the bigger concern for most of the teams. Usually at Martinsville, the accidents don't involve major repairs. That's not the case at 'Dega.

David Caraviello: That's true, Mark. Half the field finishes at Martinsville with some sort of damage, and you can contend there with your car all banged up given how little a role aerodynamics plays. You muss up a fender at Talladega, though, and you're running in the back the rest of the day. That's a sensitive place as far as the cars go.

Joe Menzer: Plus the thing about Martinsville is that, well, Jimmie Johnson is Mr. Martinsville. Despite whatever wildness might break out around him, he obviously knows how to steer clear of it there and no doubt will put an even higher premium on doing so this time around.

Mark Aumann: Now, having said that, it's pretty easy to get lapped at Martinsville if the car's not right, especially if you have tire problems. But it's also easier to miss danger there. At the speeds they're traveling at Talladega, you just have to point the car and hope. You just never know when -- and where -- trouble's going to happen at Talladega. Like last year, who would have guessed Roush teammates would have triggered the pileup? And don't forget Johnson and Junior getting turned by Brian Vickers a few years ago on the final lap.

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David Caraviello: Now, none of this means the racing is better at Talladega than Martinsville. That's not the case at all. It's far superior on the Virginia short track. I'm not a big fan of that Roman Colosseum style of racing they do in north Alabama.

Joe Menzer: My point about Jimmie's mastery at M-ville is that no one is making a move in the Chase standings without him encountering some kind of difficulty. And whatever problems others have there, he's usually able to steer clear of them. As you've all said, 'Dega it can happen anytime to anyone.

David Caraviello: The thing about Talladega though is that so much of it seems to hinge on pure luck. You can get shuffled from the front to the back and wind up in the Big One regardless of what you do. You're in peril every moment you're on the race track. Martinsville has its hazards, sure, but it's not that way. You can make your own luck at Martinsville. At Talladega, you're completely susceptible to the track's whims.

Joe Menzer: Thus, as I think I read somewhere the other day -- sort of giving me the Inside Line, so to speak -- this Chase is going to come down to one day at 'Dega. If J.J. gets out of there without much trouble, the last three races are just for show.

Mark Aumann: If Johnson still has a 90-point lead after Martinsville, he has much more wiggle room in case something silly happens at Talladega. That's really the key. If not, then maybe this thing is still up for grabs. But if he's got a big cushion two weeks from now, I think odds are really against anyone chasing him down.

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David Caraviello: I think he'll have much more than a 90-point lead after Martinsville. And you're right, Mark -- he's insulating himself against the Big One. And let's be honest -- given how regularly he runs up front, if Jimmie gets caught in it, several of his contenders are going to get caught in it, too.

Mark Aumann: And that's the whole thing about this format. What seems to happen to one Chase contender -- good or bad -- seems to happen to the others. With the exception of Jimmie.

Joe Menzer: Truthfully, though, I think we would all agree that given the 48's track record in Chases past, this thing really isn't "still up for grabs" even going into M-ville. Unless J.J. and the gang do something utterly stupid and totally out of character.

Mark Aumann: Well, at some point you have to start betting against the hot hand in craps. The odds are supposed to even out over time.

Joe Menzer: Ha! No wonder Mark sold everything and moved to a cabin in the woods with a 13-inch TV. He's broke from all the bad gambling decisions he's made in the past!

Mark Aumann: Well, Rome (Georgia) is only a few miles from the Alabama border. And no, it wasn't built in a day.

David Caraviello: And nothing says "casino" like ... Alabama?

Joe Menzer: According to Felix Sabates, nothing says "foreign country" like Alabama and/or Georgia.

David Caraviello: Well, hope Felix has his passport with him next week.

Mark Aumann: With apologies to Coke, everything does go better "with" Felix Sabates.

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. says he needs "a dictator" as a crew chief. Who should owner Rick Hendrick choose to fill that role?

Mark Aumann: What's Hugo Chavez doing? Seriously, I don't know who has the kind of authority it would take to keep the No. 88 on the tracks, week after week. Junior looks up to a lot of folks. Is there a veteran crew chief out there who can make the tough decisions?

Joe Menzer: Well, to me it's pretty obvious that Lance McGrew is not the answer. Anytime they've shown hints of developing something -- like right around Kansas when Junior said he hoped Lance McGrew would be back -- something else blows up on them. Junior needs a complete fresh face.

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David Caraviello: Well, given that Gen. Francisco Franco is still dead, I'm not sure. Who in the Cup garage is truly a dictator these days? Maybe Chad Knaus, and Junior isn't getting him. And the later we get into this season, the more it looks like Earnhardt will stay with McGrew. Who's no dictator, though the two have made some gains together.

Joe Menzer: Really? What gains have they made?

David Caraviello: They have more weeks where they run better until something freaky takes them out. Kansas, for example. And Junior knows by working with Lance that he has to get better in terms of professionalism and communication, which is half the battle. Hey, I'm not saying McGrew is the next Dale Inman, But they've had some good days. They've just wound up with little to show for them.

Joe Menzer: I think the No. 88 team was 19th in points when McGrew replaced Tony Eury Jr. as crew chief. They are 22nd now.

Mark Aumann: Yeah, but how much of that is being lousy and how much is just lousy luck? It's so hard to judge in the basis of a small sample size. And yeah, Junior's better -- but they're still not to the level of the other three teams in the stable.

Joe Menzer: Those are the bottom-line numbers. Sure, they've had some bad luck. But you know what? Everyone has some bad luck from time to time. You either deal with it and work your way back -- make your own good luck, so to speak -- or let it get you down where it can snowball on you. I say Junior is as down as I've ever seen him. And you can only start moving up when you first get your mind right.

Mark Aumann: It has gotten to the point where you say to yourself, "What will happen to Junior this week?" And inevitably, something usually does.

David Caraviello: At times, Mark, they've had to deal with both bad luck and being lousy. And let's be honest -- regardless of who's on the box, a lot of this still hinges on Junior. In his comments last week he sounded as if he wanted to wash his hands of responsibility, just take whatever Hendrick gave to him. That's not going to happen. Whoever his crew chief is, it's incumbent on Earnhardt to make the working relationship better. I think he's tried to do that with Lance, to a degree. The frustration is just getting to him.

Joe Menzer: I'm just not buying into this theory that things have improved for him with Lance McGrew. No offense to Lance, who obviously has stout credentials, but the numbers sort of speak for themselves. They have not been able to sustain whatever good runs they've had. And when you're leading and a loose lug nut drops you from the lead to 32nd or 35th and takes you right out of a race, that's not bad luck! That's bad teamwork!

Mark Aumann: How bad is this season? Junior has five top-10 finishes. Sam Hornish Jr. has seven.

Joe Menzer: Three of the top-10s came with Tony Eury Jr. as his crew chief. In the first 12 races before Cousin Tony left.

Mark Aumann: Certainly you would assume he'll run well at Talladega -- but how many times in recent years has he gotten caught up in something there? He's just snake-bitten this season. And I don't know if wholesale changes are the answer.

David Caraviello: Going back to the original question, if not McGrew, then who? Pat Tryson is an A-list guy, but he's going to Waltrip. Who else does that leave? You can't really go back to the Eurys, as much as Junior may want to. I'll tell you the guy, but I don't know that he would do it, and I think he currently has a non-compete clause: Ray Evernham. The dude is sitting out there. He's a taskmaster and a legend. If he couldn't whip that No. 88 team into shape, no one could. But then again, I don't believe the terms of his Gillett buyout would allow him to do it right now, or even next year. But if he shows any interest at all, that's your guy.

Joe Menzer: Wouldn't that be something? But you're right, circumstances make it seem as if Evernham coming back would be impossible -- but I do seem to remember a conversation with him, last January I think, where he wouldn't rule out just such a return under just the right scenario.

Mark Aumann: Harry Hogge would be perfect for the job. But I don't see this having a Hollywood ending.

David Caraviello: That's right. Ain't nothing stock about a stock car.

Joe Menzer: One other point to make about Junior: you know, everything at Hendrick, or even throughout the garage, gets compared to the chemistry Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson have, along with the rest of that 48 team. But here's the thing they've essentially been together since, what, 2002? Their kind of special chemistry isn't built overnight. Nor can Junior expect to build that, really, with anyone overnight. And he'll be 35 next year and doesn't have the kind of time that Chad and Jimmie did when they grew together. Yes, they've won three championships in a row and soon will claim their fourth. But they've been working toward this for eight years.

David Caraviello: And yet, Joe, they were very good from the beginning. Jimmie led the points late in the season as a rookie. Yes, they've worked at it for a while. But they also clicked instantly.

Mark Aumann: I think that's what everybody's wanted to see with Junior. But they haven't found the magic.

Joe Menzer: My point is that they didn't win that first championship together until their fifth year, in 2006. Junior doesn't have that kind of time if he wants to build a championship team, or be part of one I should say. They not only need to find the right crew chief and crew guys, but they need to do it in a hurry and then stick with them. A tall order, and one that I'm not sure they will be able to fill.

David Caraviello: Who says he doesn't have the time? Guy race until they're 50. He has plenty of time.

Joe Menzer: Mark Martin excelling at age 50, remarkable though it is, is the exception to the rule and you know it.

David Caraviello: I didn't say excelling. Junior has a good 10 more years left in him, if he wants it. Let's not act like the guy is in the closing stages of his career.

Mark Aumann: Bobby Allison, anyone?

Joe Menzer: Another exception to the general rule. Most guys have established what they are by their mid- to late-30s, if they even get to race that long.

3. NASCAR's first Hall of Fame class was selected last week. Who deserves to be in the second class?

Mark Aumann: The biggest worry I have is that the voting block is skewed in favor of the modern era drivers. Will Herb Thomas ever make it? Buck Baker? Joe Weatherly? Tim Flock? It's hard to compare eras, but they certainly deserve induction.

David Caraviello: I didn't have as much a problem with the inaugural class as some might have. Both Frances were going to get in in the first or second years anyway. The King and Earnhardt are no-brainers (unless you're Duane Cross). And Junior Johnson has an unparalleled resume even if he never won a title as a driver. Sure, you can make an argument for Pearson. But some people are acting like Lake Speed got in or something.

The first class

Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, Bill France Jr., Junior Johnson and Bill France Sr. will be enshrined in May 2010.

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Joe Menzer: It's obvious, based on his unfair exclusion from the first class, that David Pearson needs to head up the second group. After that, I think the aforementioned Mr. Bobby Allison is a lock, along with Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip -- and crew chief Dale Inman.

David Caraviello: Inman wasn't even on the nomination list this year. Neither was Ray Evernham. Did people forget about the crew chiefs?

Joe Menzer: Are you guys going to answer the question? Or tip-toe around it?

Mark Aumann: If you're going to select David Pearson, Cale Yarborough and Bobby Allison in the next class, I sure hope Lee Petty is the fourth on the list.

Joe Menzer: Oh, wait. I forgot about Lee Petty. OK, he goes in over Inman in this class. But Inman needs to be in the third class then.

David Caraviello: I prefer to wade in. Pearson, Waltrip, Yarborough, Allison, Lee Petty. That's your list. Happy, Menzer?

Mark Aumann: And a name that wasn't nominated and I don't know if politics were involved, but how O. Bruton Smith wasn't one of the 25 most influential people in the sport was a head-scratcher. He'd be my fifth for 2011.

Joe Menzer: Amen to that, brother. A serious oversight -- or deliberate snub.

David Caraviello: Bruton Smith is your fifth for 2011?

Joe Menzer: We all know Bruton can be a real pain in the rear, but seriously, he's been in the sport since the beginning and obviously has been a very influential -- if often controversial -- figure. No doubt he should have been among the first 25 nominated, but I don't know about being in the second overall induction class.

Mark Aumann: Yeah, I'd go with Pearson, Yarborough, Allison, L. Petty and Smith. If Little Bill was instrumental in NASCAR's evolution from a regional to national sport, Bruton revolutionized the idea of the "stadium racing" format.

David Caraviello: Hey, I love Bruton. Guy has done some tremendous things, and indeed needs to get in some day. But he's behind Rick Hendrick, who headlines the third class. He's behind Tim Flock. And Raymond Parks. And Joe Weatherly. And Bud Moore. And a few other foundation-builders who are indeed getting overlooked here.

Mark Aumann: Another name that deserves to be mentioned is T. Wayne Robertson, the marketing genius for R.J. Reynolds. This sport is nothing without T. Wayne. We're still racing in front of 15,000 folks and getting tape-delayed races on some second-rate TV network if RJR doesn't throw its marketing efforts at the sport for three decades. Remember NASCAR on MizLou? I always loved MizLou bowl games.

David Caraviello: I don't necessarily buy that. We heard years for years that the sport would founder without RJR. And Sprint took it to another level in terms of marketing. Some company would have stepped into the gap. Hey, I'm not going to disparage any individuals here. I knew a lot of the folks who worked with Winston, and they were great people. But the sport also basically let itself be used as an advertisement for a product that couldn't get itself on television any other way. Don't know if that's exactly shrine-worthy.

Joe Menzer: As successful as Rick Hendrick has been, I think you have to be careful about putting him and guys like him in too early. Mark's right in one aspect, you've got to get some more foundation-builders in there first, I think. Or you risk them being forgotten forever. Or at least not being given their rightful due.

Mark Aumann: And I'm of the opinion that guys currently in the sport -- even if they have the credentials for induction -- should wait. Rick's still got a good dozen years of ownership, easy. What's the rush?

Joe Menzer: This kind of gets back to one of the original arguments about whether or not it would have been helpful to have a bigger first class. Maybe down the road it will be like baseball's hall and they'll have an old-timer's special election where each year one or two of those guys get in.

Mark Aumann: Well, I'd like to see a veteran's/founders committee allowed to choose one worthy pre-modern individual, outside of the five. The longer it goes, the less likely guys from the early years will make it in. Out of sight, out of mind.

David Caraviello: Guys, Rick has earned it. I like the model of the basketball hall, which inducts active coaches after they've done enough to merit it. If they're good enough, they're good enough. And Hendrick is certainly good enough.

Joe Menzer: The thing about a veteran/founder committee -- sounds better than "old-timers" -- is that they could put two of those guys in every year but do it at a different time than the regular inductees, thus giving everyone their proper due and at the same time, filling the Hall up a little more quickly.

Mark Aumann: Herb Thomas' career path closely matches Richard Petty and Jeff Gordon, but his last competitive race was in 1956. How many voters do you think saw him race in person?

Joe Menzer: No one disagrees that Hendrick deserves to get in -- and he will. But in the third overall class? I don't know. That might be too early by a class or three.

David Caraviello: Yeah, you're right Joe. He'll only have, oh, nine or so Cup titles by then. Chicken feed! Listen, a lot of these guys are eventually going to get in. They can only choose five a year. A lot of fairly obvious people have to get in first. The Flocks and Thomases, I'm sure, will eventually get their due.

Mark Aumann: I don't know. If we're talking 2020 or 2025 by then, who's going to even remember if man is still alive. If woman can survive? Sorry. Had a Zager and Evans moment there.

David Caraviello: Zager gets in. Evans does not.

Joe Menzer: My new plan is to retire by 2025. I'm calling it "Stay Alive 'Til '25!"

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.