Hendrick teammates ones to Chase at Martinsville (cont'd)

TIER 3

Busch

Kurt Busch (No Change)
As we predicted last week, teams would start to weed out themselves after Charlotte. The next two weeks will thin the field even further. Which leaves just one driver in Tier 3 this week.

The math says Kurt Busch still has a chance but reality may be a different story. At 177 points behind, he's actually closer to the championship than Juan Montoya. But has the 2 team really shown the killer instinct to make up 177 points in just five races? Let's be honest -- no. Plus, Martinsville is by far their worst track in the Chase.

Sure, Busch fans will point out that he's won here before, but that was back in 2002. Joey Logano was still in elementary school back then (yes, he's out now). I'm kidding, but you see my point? Since the introduction of the new car, Busch has yet to finish in the top 10 at Martinsville and three of his past four finishes here have been 31st or worse. KB is hanging onto his championship hopes by his fingernails. There's a decent chance, unfortunately, that he could lose that last little sliver of championship hope this weekend.

TIER 4

Hamlin

Edwards

Biffle

Kahne

Newman

Vickers

Denny Hamlin (-1)
We declared Denny Hamlin's championship hopes over after California, now they're really over. Hamlin lost an engine Saturday night at Charlotte, which was a shame considering he looked to be the only driver that could really challenge Johnson for the win. In a way this may actually work out well for the FedEx team. They now head to one of their best tracks without the pressure of having to make up points or worry about what the 48 or 5 teams are doing. Mike Ford can call the race like he wants and do whatever it takes to win.

When you're 372 points behind, who cares about points? Now it's all about the grandfather clock. Don't be surprised if Hamlin is the one standing in Victory Lane on Sunday.

Carl Edwards (-1)
A mercy killing. That's how Edwards described his engine finally letting go at Charlotte. Wonder if Carl wishes the season would just go away at this point, too? Man has it been tough for the 99 team. After stringing together three consecutive top-11 finishes heading into Charlotte, they ran poorly and then the mercy killing happened.

I've been hearing rumblings about this team lately. And on some level you have to start wondering, as Roush considers personnel changes heading into 2010, should they change some of the key people on this team? My thought is they should stay put with the 99 team. You have to remember, Roush tried that before (splitting up Bob Osborne and Carl Edwards) and it did not work out too well. This team can turn it around with the key people they have. The problem is not with this team but the company as a whole. The speed is just not there on a consistent basis like it has been in years past and it likely will not get much better this weekend; Martinsville has always been a tough race track for Roush cars.

Greg Biffle (-1)
That leads us to Greg Biffle, who probably wishes his engine would have let go Saturday night. This lack of competition just eats him up. Of course, now he must face his absolute least favorite track on the schedule in Martinsville. Biffle has exactly one career Martinsville top 10 ... never has he led a lap at Martinsville ... nor has he ever finished in the top five. Think he's looking forward to coming to work this weekend? Me neither.

Kasey Kahne (No Change)
As predicted here last week Kasey Kahne gave Johnson a run for his money at Charlotte. Unfortunately, the same will not be the case this week. Much like Biffle, Kahne just struggles at Martinsville -- there's really no way to be nice about it. In his past five races at Martinsville, his best finish is 15th, so don't expect much this weekend if you are a Kasey Kahne fan. I continue to be amazed however at how well this team is performing considering all of the mess that happening within the RPM organization. The more stories I hear the more I realize that what this team is doing is truly amazing.

Ryan Newman (No Change)
Had it been the Bank of America 480 on Saturday night Newman would have been in business. As he pointed out to me this week, Newman was fifth on the final restart of the night but wound up getting shuffled back to 11th, but at least Tony Gibson made a call that got Newman towards the front and gave him a chance. Newman will admit that Martinsville is not his best track but lately he has delivered some strong results, with two top-10s in his past four races including a sixth in the spring. In fact, when you look at the overall results this year, short tracks have been one of the strong suits for Newman and his team this season. Newman may be a nice sleeper pick for this weekend.

Brian Vickers (No Change)
The good news for Vickers is that he's at his home track this weekend; Martinsville is just 35 miles from his hometown of Thomasville, N.C. The bad news for Vickers is that he's at his home track this weekend. You would think you would get some nice home cooking or something but Vickers has just been awful at Martinsville in his career, with just one top-10 finish and in the spring he finished 33rd. Unfortunately this weekend it doesn't get much better for the 83 team who has just been miserable so far in the Chase. There are some good Vickers tracks left and therefore time to rebuild some confidence for 2010.