Hendrick teammates ones to Chase at Martinsville

So I was hanging out with a driver friend of mine the other day and the subject of the Chase came up. My question to him, "Is it over?" His response? "No way, dude. Way too much racing left and Talladega is two weeks away." That friend was Kyle Busch. So if you don't believe me when I tell you it's not over yet, will you believe Kyle Busch?

I realize you guys think it's boring to watch Jimmie Johnson win. It's hard not to have that "oh no, here we go again feeling." On some level, I agree with what most fans feel. But I also realize what Kyle was talking about -- anything can happen. Have problems hit the No. 48 team in past Chase races? No, which is exactly why I think there's an even better chance they will eventually. How long can the odds play in their favor? Eventually that will catch up with them. There are 1,962 miles left to race in 2009. My advice? Stay tuned.

TIER 1

Johnson

Martin

Jimmie Johnson (No Change)
Now having said all of the above, there's no doubt Johnson is the favorite to win the championship at this point. That doesn't mean it's a guarantee. In the grand plan, Johnson probably stole one Saturday night in Charlotte. The 48 team went into that race without much success lately at Lowe's Motor Speedway and were able to come out with max points and the W. All wins are important, but that was a huge one for Johnson. Why do you think he was so excited in his cool down lap? Jimmie normally doesn't act that way after a win.

This week at Martinsville they will come in as the favorite as well; sorry, race fans. It's pretty incredible when you look at the top Chasers, their record at Martinsville is pretty spectacular -- but Johnson's is just unbelievable. Johnson has 14 consecutive top-10 finishes at Martinsville; that just doesn't happen in this sport, especially in today's age of competitive racing. But the truly incredible part is that it just gets better. In his past six races at Martinsville, Johnson has five wins. And in his past seven races at Martinsville, he has led an unbelievable 1,216 laps.

Let me see ... yep, just checked my work and there are no typos. Sorry, 48 haters, if you are on your knees praying for this team to falter, it likely will not happen this weekend.

Mark Martin (No Change)
"It could have been a lot worse." That's what one member of Mark Martin's team told me this week after their restart run-in with Juan Montoya at Charlotte. To finish 17th was actually not that bad. Despite the one poor finish Martin sits just 90 points out of the Chase lead and while Martinsville has not been nearly as kind to Martin as it has to his teammate Johnson, he still has enjoyed his share of success there.

You will find this week that most of the teams are brining their New Hampshire car to race at Martinsville. There's enough time to turn it around before Phoenix in three weeks and all three tracks (New Hampshire, Martinsville and Phoenix) have enough of the same characteristics that it works out well. That would fit perfect for Martin, right? After all, he won the race at New Hampshire a few weeks back. Despite that, Alan Gustafson has decided to save his New Hampshire car for Phoenix and bring out a new car for this weekend. Martin was able to test this car last week only a few miles from his house at New Smyrna Speedway in Florida.

For most teams, you might be worried if they brought out a brand new chassis this deep into the Chase (it is truly rare) but with the talent on this team, there's very little chance the new car experiment this weekend will backfire. Expect Martin to get back on the top 10 train this week.

TIER 2

Montoya

Stewart

Gordon

Juan Montoya (-1)
The other end of that Charlotte dust up wasn't so lucky. Montoya wound up spinning by himself later in the race after his contact with Martin and finished 35th, further proof that Martin's 17th was actually a good finish. I spent some time with JPM this week and the amazing part is how he is handling his worst finish of the year -- with a smile. The fiery Montoya has been walking around all week talking about how happy he is with how they 42 team has performed in the Chase, pointing out they still have four top-fives in the first five races and also the fact that he felt like he was one of the few that could keep up with the 48 at Charlotte too. So at least the mood in the 42 camp is positive headed to Martinsville.

Keeping that mood positive this weekend could be the challenge. Montoya admits Martinsville has been one of the more challenging tracks for him to master. But he is excited about the car they are bringing, the same one that finished third at New Hampshire a few weeks ago. This is likely not a points-gaining weekend for JPM; if he can just maintain his standing, they still have a shot at the title with a few of his best tracks still to come. The 195 points is a lot to overcome and this team has shown the ability to run up front and put themselves in a position to win races. They must find a way to finally win one in these final five races.

Tony Stewart (-1)
So what do we know about Tony Stewart five races into the Chase? Well, he's proven that he truly loves Whoppers and also that his team has shown an unbelievable ability to overcome mid-race challenges. Stewart's Houdini-like skills to turn poor runs into top-10 finishes ran out of steam at Charlotte when he finished 13th and failed to lead a lap. The 13th-place finish is not bad but it will not win you a championship, this season for sure.

Martinsville, though, could be the perfect track for Stewart to right the ship. Since he sat on the pole at Martinsville in his very first race this has always been one of Stewart's better tracks. With six top-10s in his past eight Martinsville races, there is hope for Stewart to gain ground, but like everybody else he will need some major help from Johnson to get back to the front of the standings. Stewart's deficit is just 155 points and he only has three people to leap frog, a big advantage of Montoya and others. Add that to the fact that Stewart truly has no weak tracks left on the schedule, all of that equals ... don't count out Smoke just yet.

Jeff Gordon (No Change)
You have to admire Steve Letarte's guts for slapping two tires on the 24 during the last stop at Charlotte. Nobody can accuse this team of not going for wins and just trying for a "good points day." The result gave "Four Time" his third consecutive top-five finish and kept him within championship range. Perhaps most important leaving Charlotte was the face that Gordon was able to take advantage of Montoya's and Stewart's issues to jump past them in the standings. Gordon is now just 135 behind his teammate but more importantly, just one driver stands between him and Johnson. The less people you have to beat, the better. Now Gordon comes to arguably his best track on the circuit, Martinsville.

If there is one driver who can boast Martinsville stats almost as good as Johnson, it's Gordon. He has just 13 consecutive Martinsville top-10s. Why, he should be ashamed! That's one shy of his teammate's current streak. But perhaps more impressive is the fact that Gordon has nine consecutive top-five finishes at Martinsville. The bad part in all of this for Gordon fans? Despite all of that success, his teammate has been just a little bit better. Story of everybody's life, eh? But at least there's hope for Gordon to gain points this weekend.

TIER 3

Busch

Kurt Busch (No Change)
As we predicted last week, teams would start to weed out themselves after Charlotte. The next two weeks will thin the field even further. Which leaves just one driver in Tier 3 this week.

The math says Kurt Busch still has a chance but reality may be a different story. At 177 points behind, he's actually closer to the championship than Juan Montoya. But has the 2 team really shown the killer instinct to make up 177 points in just five races? Let's be honest -- no. Plus, Martinsville is by far their worst track in the Chase.

Sure, Busch fans will point out that he's won here before, but that was back in 2002. Joey Logano was still in elementary school back then (yes, he's out now). I'm kidding, but you see my point? Since the introduction of the new car, Busch has yet to finish in the top 10 at Martinsville and three of his past four finishes here have been 31st or worse. KB is hanging onto his championship hopes by his fingernails. There's a decent chance, unfortunately, that he could lose that last little sliver of championship hope this weekend.

TIER 4

Hamlin

Edwards

Biffle

Kahne

Newman

Vickers

Denny Hamlin (-1)
We declared Denny Hamlin's championship hopes over after California, now they're really over. Hamlin lost an engine Saturday night at Charlotte, which was a shame considering he looked to be the only driver that could really challenge Johnson for the win. In a way this may actually work out well for the FedEx team. They now head to one of their best tracks without the pressure of having to make up points or worry about what the 48 or 5 teams are doing. Mike Ford can call the race like he wants and do whatever it takes to win.

When you're 372 points behind, who cares about points? Now it's all about the grandfather clock. Don't be surprised if Hamlin is the one standing in Victory Lane on Sunday.

Carl Edwards (-1)
A mercy killing. That's how Edwards described his engine finally letting go at Charlotte. Wonder if Carl wishes the season would just go away at this point, too? Man has it been tough for the 99 team. After stringing together three consecutive top-11 finishes heading into Charlotte, they ran poorly and then the mercy killing happened.

I've been hearing rumblings about this team lately. And on some level you have to start wondering, as Roush considers personnel changes heading into 2010, should they change some of the key people on this team? My thought is they should stay put with the 99 team. You have to remember, Roush tried that before (splitting up Bob Osborne and Carl Edwards) and it did not work out too well. This team can turn it around with the key people they have. The problem is not with this team but the company as a whole. The speed is just not there on a consistent basis like it has been in years past and it likely will not get much better this weekend; Martinsville has always been a tough race track for Roush cars.

Greg Biffle (-1)
That leads us to Greg Biffle, who probably wishes his engine would have let go Saturday night. This lack of competition just eats him up. Of course, now he must face his absolute least favorite track on the schedule in Martinsville. Biffle has exactly one career Martinsville top 10 ... never has he led a lap at Martinsville ... nor has he ever finished in the top five. Think he's looking forward to coming to work this weekend? Me neither.

Kasey Kahne (No Change)
As predicted here last week Kasey Kahne gave Johnson a run for his money at Charlotte. Unfortunately, the same will not be the case this week. Much like Biffle, Kahne just struggles at Martinsville -- there's really no way to be nice about it. In his past five races at Martinsville, his best finish is 15th, so don't expect much this weekend if you are a Kasey Kahne fan. I continue to be amazed however at how well this team is performing considering all of the mess that happening within the RPM organization. The more stories I hear the more I realize that what this team is doing is truly amazing.

Ryan Newman (No Change)
Had it been the Bank of America 480 on Saturday night Newman would have been in business. As he pointed out to me this week, Newman was fifth on the final restart of the night but wound up getting shuffled back to 11th, but at least Tony Gibson made a call that got Newman towards the front and gave him a chance. Newman will admit that Martinsville is not his best track but lately he has delivered some strong results, with two top-10s in his past four races including a sixth in the spring. In fact, when you look at the overall results this year, short tracks have been one of the strong suits for Newman and his team this season. Newman may be a nice sleeper pick for this weekend.

Brian Vickers (No Change)
The good news for Vickers is that he's at his home track this weekend; Martinsville is just 35 miles from his hometown of Thomasville, N.C. The bad news for Vickers is that he's at his home track this weekend. You would think you would get some nice home cooking or something but Vickers has just been awful at Martinsville in his career, with just one top-10 finish and in the spring he finished 33rd. Unfortunately this weekend it doesn't get much better for the 83 team who has just been miserable so far in the Chase. There are some good Vickers tracks left and therefore time to rebuild some confidence for 2010.