Chasers have a lot on their plates as Talladega calls

Talladega. It's not a fun word when you are trying to win a championship. The sheer unpredictability is what makes this place such a nightmare. The wrecks can happen anywhere and at any time. I've seen drivers leading the race get taken out, wrecks in the middle of the pack and guys "hanging out at the back of the pack to avoid the big one" get wrapped up smack dab in the middle of it. All you have to do is look at the top Chasers and their Talladega results to tell the story. Rarely does one driver put together a string of top ten finishes at Talladega, no matter how well they run in plate races.

Much will be made this weekend of the new smaller plates that are mandated for Sunday's race after Carl Edwards' last lap, near dance with the audience in the Talladega race earlier this year. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. told me he flat out doesn't like this decision by NASCAR. In fact, it's hard to find a driver who really does like it. "Obviously we are going to be in one big pack, what good does that do?," Junior asked. The packs will be precariously tight on Sunday but that is not the real issue according to Greg Biffle. He thinks the problem will be bump drafting. "NASCAR has to find a way to monitor it. That is what is causing the wrecks, we're hitting each other in the turns and it just doesn't work," Biffle said. He's right and he made the further point that with the smaller plates, drivers will be looking for any tiny advantage they can get so we're likely to see more bump drafting than ever. Smaller plates, tighter packs and more bump drafting means larger and more frequent wrecks. The more drivers I talk to this week, the more drivers I hear who just are not looking forward to Sunday's race.

Despite some driver opinions, every race fan should be excited. This was made for them. The product you will see on TV, or in person, will no doubt be breath-taking.

TIER 1

Johnson

Jimmie Johnson (No Change)
This is the one Chase race that makes even Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus take pause. After all, Talladega is the site of their only DNF to this point in 2009, so trust me; they know what this place can do to you. Johnson is also "Exhibit A" to prove just how unpredictable Talladega can be. In Johnson's last 10 'Dega races he has just four top ten finishes. Johnson falls in line with most everybody else here - he has his good days (one win) and his bad days (six DNF's and five finishes of 30th or worse). All of those points will be made over and over again this weekend, including promises of a new Chase starting next week at Texas if Johnson finishes poorly on Sunday, but let's make one thing very clear -- even if Johnson has a DNF this weekend, the championship landscape is not likely to change all that much with just this one race. It could certainly start some bad mojo for any of the Chase teams but will Mark Martin suddenly be within 50 points heading into Texas? Not likely.

For argument's sake - let's take for example this spring's race at Talladega - and suppose that is where the top five chasers finish this Sunday, then let's see where the points fall into place from there. The best finish among the top five chasers at Talladega in the spring was 20th and was recorded by Juan Pablo Montoya. Below is a chart of the top five chasers with the points they have now, the points they earned at Talladega in the spring and what the points would look like if the same were to happen this time around.

My wife just told me I have officially gone over the edge with research but you can tell, that it will take an exceptionally bad day for Jimmie Johnson and an exceptionally good day for everybody else at Talladega on Sunday to close the gap in the championship standings.

Martin

Mark Martin (No Change)
I have been covering Mark Martin for over 15 years and I have never, never heard him say he is looking forward to a restrictor plate race...until last week. For the first time ever, Martin says that he is excited about the possibilities of this week's race at Talladega. "The odds have to be in my favor by now, I've wrecked so many times at these plate races," said Martin.

Remember when I mentioned about people riding around in the back to avoid the big one only to get caught up in it anyway? One year at Talladega that was Mark Martin and I'll never forget what he said to me off-air when he came out of the infield care center that day..."even when you plan not to wreck here, you still wreck."

Martin has certainly had his share of misfortune at these plate races but at least the normally glass half-empty Martin is looking at the race this weekend with a positive attitude.

And why not?

Even though Martin is the closest of the chasers to Jimmie Johnson, he still has 118 points to make up. Kind of sad to admit that the number two chaser is in "nothing to lose mode" but if he's not in that mode, he could be very soon.

TIER 2

Montoya

Stewart

Gordon

Juan Pablo Montoya (No Change)
As has become the norm so far in the 2009 Chase, Juan Pablo Montoya was beyond impressive at Martinsville. After his 3rd place finish last week, Montoya now has scored career best finishes at five of the six tracks so far in the Chase, pretty incredible. There is also a better than average chance he will be able to make it six out of seven this week at Talladega.

JPM has always been an underrated drafter. It's a skill that he picked up very early in his stock car career. Add that to the fact that the Earnhardt/Childress engine group is probably producing the most raw horsepower right now, as evidenced by JPM winning the pole at Talladega in the spring, and you have a pretty solid combination for this weekend.

On a side note, the reason Earnhardt/Childress outfit is putting out the most power right now? Ritchie Gilmore is back doing what he loves by overseeing engines and not having the burden of overseeing the entire organization. The result has this group back on top in the restrictor plate game, right where they were a few years ago. All of this means that JPM will be fast this weekend and at Talladega, speed and being in the right place at the right time are really all that matter.

Tony Stewart (No Change)
Martinsville was just plain frustrating for Tony Stewart. I spent some time with him this week and he made the point that it just seemed like they could never seem to get up front and really run with the leaders. I'm willing to bet that will not be the case this weekend at Talladega.

At Daytona in July, Stewart was dominant. But Daytona and Talladega are totally different. Granted, even tough they are both plate races Daytona is all about the handling and Talladega is all about the speed, Stewart will have plenty of speed this weekend. But like everybody else, Stewart has mixed results over the last few races at Talladega. In his last six 'Dega races, he has just two top-10 finishes but one of those was a win in this race last year.

Jeff Gordon (No Change)
For Jeff Gordon, Martinsville had to be somewhat of a disappointment. Despite his teammate's success there, Martinsville might have been one of the few chances for Gordon to gain ground on Johnson, since Gordon is so good there. But instead it turned out like most other weeks, with Gordon (and most everybody else in the field for that matter) losing points.

Talladega might be another opportunity for Gordon to get some points back. No doubt Gordon has a better career record at Talladega than Johnson but again, Gordon is Exhibit C to prove just how hit and miss Talladega can be. Just like Stewart, in his last six Talladega races, Gordon has just two top-10 finishes, but oddly enough both of those top tens were wins. Talladega is probably one of two real opportunities left for Gordon to outrun his teammate Johnson. This race and Texas are his best chances; Phoenix and Homestead likely will be tracks where Johnson will have the edge.

TIER 3

Busch

Hamlin

Kurt Busch (No Change)
Kurt Busch got out of Martinsville kind of the way we expected...not too good. Talladega is likely to be a much different story. Busch is the one driver who bucks the trend when it comes to results at Talladega. Despite the fact that he is still looking for his first restrictor plate win, Busch has a strong record at Talladega with eight top tens in his last ten races there. Busch has always been known as a solid plate racer and he's pushed several people to wins at both Daytona and Talladega. Maybe this time around it's his turn to get a push from someone else. Don't be surprised if Kurt Busch is a contender for the win this weekend.

Denny Hamlin (+1)
Like we talked about last week, Denny Hamlin is in a terrific spot, no championship pressure, yet they have a car fast enough to win most every week. Last week at Martinsville, Mike Ford was able to make some pit gambles work out and Hamlin took a fast car from there to victory lane. Hamlin has also been one of the exceptions to the rule with Talladega results. He has two top tens in his last four races at Talladega and one of those non-top tens came when he lost a right front tire while leading the race. No doubt Gibbs has been near the top when it comes to speed and handling at these plate tracks of late; JGR has won two of the last three Talladega races. So Hamlin will run up front Sunday and with nothing to lose, who knows, maybe they can parlay those factors into a second straight win.

TIER 4

Biffle

Edwards

Newman

Kahne

Vickers

Greg Biffle (No Change)
As predicted, Martinsville was miserable for Greg Biffle. He told me this week he was just glad to get out of there but he did make a kind offer to Denny Hamlin. Biffle said that he would offer to take Denny Hamlin to Dover and test with him and he'd also be willing to share some of his secrets, since Hamlin struggles so much at Dover and Biffle is so good there. If Hamlin would do the same for Biffle at Martinsville, Biffle may want to find someone to offer him the same help at Talladega instead. This has just not been Biffle's track over the years. He did finish 7th here in the spring but, believe it or not, that was his first career top ten Talladega finish. In fact, Roush Racing as a whole has always struggled at Talladega. In the last five Talladega races, Roush has just four top-10 finishes (with five teams, that means there were 25 opportunities). The whole, "Roush getting their grove back before the end of the season" thing, is not likely to start this week at Talladega.

Carl Edwards (No Change)
If you're Carl Edwards and you are looking for a fresh start, why not look to Talladega? Couldn't get much worse than the last time here, right? Or worse than his five straight races at Talladega without a top-10, or his three, Talladega DNF's in his last five races there. Surely things can only get better, right?

Ryan Newman (No Change)
Ryan Newman turned in an impressive Martinsville effort. If you read these pages last week, you might have selected Newman as a dark horse. Good call. Equally as impressive as the 39 team's short track program this year has been their plate program. Newman has shown the ability and desire to run up front in these races and was one of the players late in the race at Talladega in the spring. Perhaps surprising to some, Newman has four finishes of 11th or better so far in the Chase. In years past, that would probably get you in the top half of the chasers. This year however it will get you solidly in the bottom half. Newman might pick it up a bit this weekend though with a surprising, to some, top five run.

Kasey Kahne (No Change)
Ugh! That's the only way to describe Kasey Kahne's Martinsville race. It's one of the races I'm told drivers hate the most (according to people who have actually had to do it). A driver wrecks his car early but doesn't wreck it hard enough to be able to quit. Instead he has to keep going, with a torn up car, limping around while people are passing him every few seconds and exhaust fumes are filling up the car. I can only imagine how frustrating and nauseating it must be. The result for Kahne was a 32nd place finish. Unfortunately, the prospects for this weekend may not be much better. While Kahne has always seemed to run well at the plate races, the end results at Talladega have not been kind. Kahne has exactly one career top-10 finish at Talladega and has finished 36th in his last two races there. After his wreck at California and his disaster of a day at Martinsville, you would think the odds would be in Kahne's favor to just have a clean race at Talladega. Considering his recent record there, that would be a good day.

Brian Vickers (No Change)
Some scribblers continue to bash the 83 team and wonder why they are even in the Chase. On some level I agree, but I think their Martinsville run was fairly impressive. Vickers finished 11th last Sunday but ran most of the race in the top ten. That's a solid day considering Martinsville is one of his worst tracks. Now he comes to one of his best tracks. Vickers is one of the few drivers who has been able to post solid results almost every time out at Talladega. He has five top tens in his last seven Talladega races. Don't be surprised to see the 83 back in contention for a win this weekend.