Johnson still has sizeable lead, but no longer a lock

1. Jimmie Johnson leads Mark Martin by 73 points with two to go. Do we have a race again?

Dave Rodman: Relatively speaking we do, and the most intriguing aspect of it is that Mark handed it to all of 'em at Phoenix in the spring. That at least makes it interesting -- though two consecutive disasters for JJ is unlikely. And 73 points is difficult to make up against drivers of his caliber.

David Caraviello: Well ... maybe. Given how good Johnson has been at Phoenix, where he's won two consecutive fall races, I doubt it. He's slipped up at Texas before -- not this badly, mind you -- and still slammed the door a week later. I think the same thing happens this week. But Martin has won at Phoenix recently, too, so ...

Joe Menzer: Oh, yeah. It's a race. And I've heard all the arguments about how even after Texas Jimmie has a bigger points lead going into the final two races than he had in two of the past three years when he won it all. But to me, this has a bit of a different feel to it. Plus, Martin won the last race at Phoenix, breaking Jimmie's stranglehold on the place -- and his three-race win streak there.

David Caraviello: Joe, let's be realistic. It would take another disastrous day, like the early crash at Texas, to really swing the door open for Mark. You don't really except that, do you?

Joe Menzer: Granted, the 48 isn't likely to have another disaster like Texas. But let's say something lesser happens ... like Martin wins the race and Jimmie finishes 12th to 15th. That would at least make it interesting going into Miami. I could see something like that happening.

Dave Rodman: I think, finally -- and no offense to any of the previous challengers -- but finally Johnson has a threat, he's facing some pressure. Having said that, I think they're best equipped to handle it.

Joe Menzer: More likely what will happen is that even if Martin finishes ahead of JJ, the separation will be minimal and the points gain negligible. I mean, I think we all expect Jimmie to come up with at least a top-10 finish after Texas. But even if that happens -- if all Martin does is pick up a few points and just not lose any -- it at least could make Homestead relevant again.

David Caraviello: No, that's not beyond the scope of imagination. But let's put this in perspective here. Sunday was Johnson's worst Chase finish in more than three years. In every other Chase race this year, he's finished ninth or better. What happened at Texas was like an appearance by Halley's Comet -- an incredible rarity.

Dave Rodman: Let me just cite this as all you need to know: New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14.

David Caraviello: That [2008] Super Bowl comparison is irrelevant. This isn't a series of match races pitting Jimmie against an underdog with an even points slate going into the final race. Give New England a 73-point lead entering that game, and it's academic. Apples and rutabagas.

Dave Rodman: It damn sure is. Who expected the Giants to beat the Pats? They were unbeaten and unchallenged. The relevance is that the unexpected certainly does happen in sports.

Joe Menzer: Geez, Rodman is going to try to start quoting football scores? That's like me trying to break down what's been happening with the economy during the past two years!

David Caraviello: Joe, what's your opinion on the elasticity of the gross domestic product?

Joe Menzer: Hey, man, what about my latest video blog? All you gotta do is look to the golf world. Check it out, my friends! Paul Lawrie from 10 down in the final round to win the 1999 British Open. (OK, so there is no Jean Van de Velde at the front of this Sprint Cup field, but you get the point). And as I stated, I think of Mark Martin, I look at what Y.E. Yang did to Tiger in this year's PGA Championship, and I say, "Y not?" And let me quote Blutarsky from Animal House: "It's not over until I say it's over. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

David Caraviello: This topic is over, I can tell you that ...

Related
• By the Numbers: Champs been good in Phoenix Chase race
• Fantasy Preview: Johnson, Martin should lead way at Phoenix (Continued)