Johnson still has sizeable lead, but no longer a lock

1. Jimmie Johnson leads Mark Martin by 73 points with two to go. Do we have a race again?

Dave Rodman: Relatively speaking we do, and the most intriguing aspect of it is that Mark handed it to all of 'em at Phoenix in the spring. That at least makes it interesting -- though two consecutive disasters for JJ is unlikely. And 73 points is difficult to make up against drivers of his caliber.

David Caraviello: Well ... maybe. Given how good Johnson has been at Phoenix, where he's won two consecutive fall races, I doubt it. He's slipped up at Texas before -- not this badly, mind you -- and still slammed the door a week later. I think the same thing happens this week. But Martin has won at Phoenix recently, too, so ...

Joe Menzer: Oh, yeah. It's a race. And I've heard all the arguments about how even after Texas Jimmie has a bigger points lead going into the final two races than he had in two of the past three years when he won it all. But to me, this has a bit of a different feel to it. Plus, Martin won the last race at Phoenix, breaking Jimmie's stranglehold on the place -- and his three-race win streak there.

David Caraviello: Joe, let's be realistic. It would take another disastrous day, like the early crash at Texas, to really swing the door open for Mark. You don't really except that, do you?

Joe Menzer: Granted, the 48 isn't likely to have another disaster like Texas. But let's say something lesser happens ... like Martin wins the race and Jimmie finishes 12th to 15th. That would at least make it interesting going into Miami. I could see something like that happening.

Dave Rodman: I think, finally -- and no offense to any of the previous challengers -- but finally Johnson has a threat, he's facing some pressure. Having said that, I think they're best equipped to handle it.

Joe Menzer: More likely what will happen is that even if Martin finishes ahead of JJ, the separation will be minimal and the points gain negligible. I mean, I think we all expect Jimmie to come up with at least a top-10 finish after Texas. But even if that happens -- if all Martin does is pick up a few points and just not lose any -- it at least could make Homestead relevant again.

David Caraviello: No, that's not beyond the scope of imagination. But let's put this in perspective here. Sunday was Johnson's worst Chase finish in more than three years. In every other Chase race this year, he's finished ninth or better. What happened at Texas was like an appearance by Halley's Comet -- an incredible rarity.

Dave Rodman: Let me just cite this as all you need to know: New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14.

David Caraviello: That [2008] Super Bowl comparison is irrelevant. This isn't a series of match races pitting Jimmie against an underdog with an even points slate going into the final race. Give New England a 73-point lead entering that game, and it's academic. Apples and rutabagas.

Dave Rodman: It damn sure is. Who expected the Giants to beat the Pats? They were unbeaten and unchallenged. The relevance is that the unexpected certainly does happen in sports.

Joe Menzer: Geez, Rodman is going to try to start quoting football scores? That's like me trying to break down what's been happening with the economy during the past two years!

David Caraviello: Joe, what's your opinion on the elasticity of the gross domestic product?

Joe Menzer: Hey, man, what about my latest video blog? All you gotta do is look to the golf world. Check it out, my friends! Paul Lawrie from 10 down in the final round to win the 1999 British Open. (OK, so there is no Jean Van de Velde at the front of this Sprint Cup field, but you get the point). And as I stated, I think of Mark Martin, I look at what Y.E. Yang did to Tiger in this year's PGA Championship, and I say, "Y not?" And let me quote Blutarsky from Animal House: "It's not over until I say it's over. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

David Caraviello: This topic is over, I can tell you that ...

Related
• By the Numbers: Champs been good in Phoenix Chase race
• Fantasy Preview: Johnson, Martin should lead way at Phoenix

2. Both the Nationwide and Camping World Truck championships could be clinched this weekend at Phoenix. Is that a bad thing for NASCAR?

Dave Rodman: The Chase comes to Nationwide and Truck! It's not as bad as Kevin Harvick having an 800-point lead and clinching at Lowe's -- or something like that.

• Sprint Cup Series tickets
• Nationwide Series tickets
• Truck Series tickets

David Caraviello: Actually, all three national series could be clinched, but Jimmie sewing up the Sprint Cup title is kind of a long shot after what happened last week. But if the other two are decided? No, that's not a bad thing at all. Phoenix gets a piece of the championship pie, and Homestead is all about the Cup tour.

Joe Menzer: Well, it's never ideal when any of the championships is settled before "Championship Weekend" at Homestead. But in both cases, I think the stories behind the championships are compelling enough. Ron Hornaday wins his fourth Truck championship and Kyle Busch wins his first NASCAR national touring title -- the first of what will be several, I believe. But if all three were to be clinched before Homestead, ouch!

Dave Rodman: To me, this should be an argument in support of the Chase -- though I was kidding about bringing it to either of the junior series. The unfortunate thing for Homestead track president Curtis Gray is that it might hurt his Friday and Saturday attendance. But wait a minute. You were either planning to be at Homestead or you weren't. Since there's by God no other reason to go there, you would have either planned to be at those races or you're locked into football. Ouch.

David Caraviello: No other reason to go to Homestead? Dave, you obviously have never taken an air-boat ride through the Everglades! That's a lot of fun. First time I did it, one dude on the boat leaned over to try and get a photo of a gator. Wind buffeted the boat and he dropped his camera in the water. He was about to stick his arm in to retrieve it when the guide forcefully stopped him.

Ron Hornaday and Kyle Busch

Dave Rodman: Hmmm. That's about 55th on the list.

David Caraviello: If somebody clinches at Phoenix, NASCAR is going to have a "soft" celebration, with photos and a trophy presentation, but save the official crowning for Homestead. Not sure I agree with that. If it's over, it's over. The fans know it. Pretending otherwise only risks making you look foolish.

Joe Menzer: A "soft" celebration? What the heck is that? Are the teams going to get red-flagged by NASCAR for "excessive celebration" if it gets out of hand -- and have it applied to their starting position at Homestead? Give me a break. That's ridiculous!

David Caraviello: I remember when Matt Kenseth clinched at Rockingham several years ago, they really did it up -- confetti, championship hats and jackets, put him on the back of a big flatbed and rolled him around the track. No illusions as to what was really going on. He clinched the title, and it was celebrated as so. They did the same thing the next week for the finale. That's how you do it.

Dave Rodman: It's a case where motorsports is somewhat unique. In all the traditional stick-and-ball sports, you have to play that final game and it has to mean something -- it's the final elimination. All the championship hoopla is scheduled at Homestead. But there's no way you could ignore the championship being won earlier, so they "soft" pedal it -- no big deal.

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David Caraviello: Dave, that's like saying if a baseball team clinches its division with six games still remaining, they have to wait until after the final game of the season to spray the champagne. Obviously, that's not the case. I realize there are sponsorship ties involved -- Ford, I'm sure, is paying good money to host "Championship Weekend" -- but if it's over, it's over.

Joe Menzer: Agreed. And listen, I fully realize that my background in mostly stick-and-ball sports -- as racing folks like to call 'em -- clouds my perception here a little bit. I'm constantly comparing the other sports and how they do things to how NASCAR does 'em. And there are times when they must do things differently. But there are other times when they could learn from how the other sports do things and they are too stubborn or stuck with old (sometimes bad) habits to want to change.

Dave Rodman: And to the comparison to winning a division title? Isn't that like clinching a Chase berth at Michigan? Totally irrelevant. That's why most stick-and-ball comparisons don't work.

David Caraviello: This from the guy who made the Super Bowl comparison earlier?

Joe Menzer: OK, that's just the attitude too many racing "purists" have -- and why they're too stubborn to take lessons that could be learned by looking at how the other sports run their deals.

David Caraviello: Watch out, Joe. You're sticking your hand into alligator-infested waters ....

By the Numbers
• Nationwide: Busch looks to clinch at place season turned
• Truck: Hornaday goes for title; quest for trifecta begins

3. Is it a good time to be a small organization, given that drivers such as David Stremme, Bobby Labonte, Casey Mears and Reed Sorenson are evidently looking for rides for next year?

David Caraviello: OK, none of these guys is likely to set the world on fire. They've all had better chances in better rides, and for whatever reason, they didn't work out. But if you're a lower-level team looking for someone who can make races and be moderately competitive ... the pickings are pretty good right now.

Career Overview

Bobby Labonte

• 2000 Cup Series champion

• 21 Cup Series victories*

• Since 2007: One top-five, seven top-10s (106 races)

* None since 2003

Casey Mears

• One Cup win (250 races)

• Best points finish: 14th (2006)

• Has driven for Ganassi, Hendrick, Childress

Reed Sorenson

• One top-10 in 2009

• No top-fives since 2008 Daytona 500

• Career average finish: 25.2 (143 races)

David Stremme

• Three top-10s (108 starts)

• Made just one start in 2008

• Replaced by Brad Keselowski after 33 races this season

Dave Rodman: I bet Bobby Labonte is signed by tomorrow. And I'd say this -- if I was a small organization with aspirations to soar places, I'd be looking at someone like Brian Ickler -- or, if he wasn't already relatively locked up, a Trevor Bayne.

Joe Menzer: A small organization, like what? JTG Daugherty Racing? It has an up-and-coming driver in Marcos Ambrose already lined up, I believe, for the next two years? What other small organizations are out there that actually are relevant any longer? Maybe TRG Motorsports -- especially if you ask Roadman!

David Caraviello: Dude, we're not talking relevance. We're talking smaller, scaled-back, or shoestring organizations that show up each week (or every other week) trying to make races. There are more out there than that. And given the contraction that's gone on in the sport, it looks like some decent enough drivers may trickle down to them.

Dave Rodman: You could lump all the new teams into that group. Phoenix Racing has always had an effective, multi-divisional program going on. TRG and Front Row Motorsports are just two more small groups that have big aspirations -- and like James Finch, Bob Jenkins has the personal horsepower to make something happen.

Joe Menzer: And I'm just joking about TRG. I do admire that it does more with less -- as I do admire the way Furniture Row Racing does the same.

David Caraviello: And let's not confuse these guys with JTG, which has an alliance with Michael Waltrip Racing, and has a driver who's capable of winning races at some point. The organizations we're talking about aren't likely to be in a position to win races, unless one of them catches lightning in a bottle the way Phoenix did at Talladega.

Dave Rodman: It was remiss of me to omit Furniture Row. Barney Visser is a pea in a pod to those other guys, and it has a solid young guy in Regan Smith. Maybe one of these veterans fits into a second car there? I don't know. But with the great crop -- both in numbers and talent -- of development drivers, I'd be nervous if I was out of work without great stats on my resume.

Joe Menzer: But let's get back to the original list. Of that group, who really should get excited about putting David Stremme, Casey Mears or Reed Sorenson in a seat? They've all had their shots and failed, mostly badly. I would say the only guy who I think deserves to get somewhere and for once stay with the same crew chief, etc., for at least a full season might be Mears -- but then he had his chance basically with the same Hendrick team that Mark Martin is tearing it up with this year.

David Caraviello: Joe, we know that. But again, what are these organizations looking for? Someone who can qualify and maybe crack the top 20 every now and then? In that sense, a guy like Casey or Stremme is a find. To be fair, Richard Childress hasn't officially announced the future of his No. 07 team yet, so maybe Casey could still end up there in some capacity next year. But it's late in the season, and we haven't heard anything, and that usually does not bode well.

Joe Menzer: If I owned a small team, I would be looking to a young, relatively unknown developmental driver to put in the seat. Or at least be looking to put one of those guys in a Nationwide seat and start getting him experience. I was just at a function [Tuesday] and spent some time talking with Andrew Ranger, who is looking for a Nationwide ride next year. That kid seems to have talent and is sharp and all he seems to need is experience at a higher level. And he's just one of many like that.

Dave Rodman: But without knowing exactly what Travis Kvapil or David Gilliland, particularly, have in play, they go to the top of that list. Kvapil is a former national series champion and what those two did with those shoestring Yates cars last year was impressive. And Joe, you're right -- Ranger should be on someone's list. Did he just win his second Canadian Tire championship?

Joe Menzer: Yes, Ranger just won his second Canadian Tire championship in three years, I think. He had six wins -- three on ovals and three on road courses.

David Caraviello: Hey, everybody agrees Ranger has big-time talent. Just ask Carl Edwards. But you don't exactly further his career by putting him in a Cup car that does not have the means to be competitive. That's a kid Roush or Hendrick should have an eye on, not TRG. That's like expecting a high-school All-America basketball player to consider Iona or Bowling Green.

Dave Rodman: Look at it this way. Insiders who know what they're looking at can tell as much about a guy racing for 25th -- or 35th -- as they can someone racing for fifth.

David Caraviello: The only thing worse than not getting a big break in NASCAR is getting one in a car that's not any good. Many, many careers have been ruined that way.

Joe Menzer: Wait, wait, wait! I didn't say Ranger should jump to a Cup car. I said he's looking for a Nationwide ride and all he seems to need is experience at a higher level to continue developing! And why the shot at Bowling Green, which you know is my alma mater? I didn't say anything about the South Carolina football team choking away another season?

David Caraviello: Is it still football season?

Joe Menzer: Ask Roadman. He's the stick-and-ball expert this week!

The opinions expressed are solely those of the participants.