Thanks to Texas, tiering is back to a two-man race (cont'd)

TIER 4

Hamlin

Biffle

Newman

Kahne

Vickers

Denny Hamlin (No Change)
Despite the fact that he finished second at Texas, Hamlin did not run nearly as well as I thought he would. My bet is that will not be the case this week. Hamlin is flat terrific at these flat tracks. I've asked him this a million times, "why are you so good at those tracks?" He has always told me, the honest answer is because he is just comfortable on this type of track. They remind him of his hometown track, Southside Speedway in Richmond.

Whatever the reason, expect Hamlin to be a contender for the win once again. How many times have we said that so far in the Chase? Pretty amazing this team is eighth in the standings, despite how good they have been in the Chase. They really deserve to be contending with Johnson for the championship.

Hamlin will bring out a brand new car in Phoenix. This was planned from the beginning of the Chase and crew chief Mike Ford feels that it will be even better than the new car he brought out at New Hampshire that Hamlin called the best car ever to come out of the JGR stables. Should be interesting to see how good this car can be. Hamlin has five top-10s in his past six Phoenix races and he's a good bet to make it six out of seven.

Greg Biffle (No Change)
What is left to say about the Roush teams in the 2009 Chase? When does vacation start again?

It would be nice to talk about Biffle's strength at Phoenix, after all it is arguably one of the better tracks in his career. Biffle has four consecutive finishes of 11th or better at Phoenix, but then again, we were able to say the same thing heading into New Hampshire, Dover and California and none of those turned out well.

Biffle and I talked and he is really excited ... about his fishing trip to Mexico after the race this weekend. Excited about the race? Probably not as much is my guess.

Carl Edwards (No Change)
Ditto as above with the following changes ... Edwards has three consecutive top-10s at Phoenix and he does not plan to go fishing after the Phoenix race. Everything else above is true for Edwards, though.

Ryan Newman (No Change)
Phoenix has been an odd race track for Newman. Early in his career he put his stamp on this place with three consecutive poles and finishes of third and second in two consecutive races. But that was five years ago. Since then Newman has scored just one top-10 at Phoenix as he has struggled to find his feel at the flat tracks. Odd to say considering his pedigree and how good he once was at this type of track but Newman's best chance for a top-10 in these final two races of 2009 will likely come next week at Homestead.

Kasey Kahne (No Change)
The same can be said for Kahne, although some would argue he never really had the feel for the flat tracks in the first place -- it's just not his thing. Kahne finished fifth in his first career Phoenix race, a feat he has yet to equal since. Kahne has never led a lap here and his last top-10 was in 2006. Needless to say, this is not one of Kahne's best tracks. Next week at Homestead, however, the No. 9 team could have a legit shot to win the race. This week? Probably not.

Brian Vickers (No Change)
The Chase is just not getting any better for Vickers. Even when the No. 83 team goes to tracks where they are supposed to be strong, they falter, like last week at Texas. I've been saying it for eight weeks, where is the team that stormed their way into the Chase? Unlike Texas, Phoenix is just not a track where the No. 83 team expects to be strong. Vickers has just one career top-10 and unfortunately, the miserable Chase for Vickers has a very good chance of continuing this weekend.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.