Thanks to Texas, tiering is back to a two-man race

Now we have a race. I just knew that if all of us in the media started mouthing off and writing that the Chase was over after Talladega something goofy would happen and there you go. Indeed things are much closer, but what is the realistic chance the No. 48 team will run into problems two weeks in a row? Not likely. But it certainly gives us a reason to watch these final two races of 2009.

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Already this week you have no doubt heard a lot about the fact that Mark Martin won at Phoenix in the spring and also the fact that Jimmie Johnson has won three of the past four Phoenix races. But which driver really has the advantage this week? Let's dive a little deeper into the numbers and try to find an answer to that question.

When Cup teams prepare for Phoenix they look at two other race tracks ... Richmond and New Hampshire. You will see teams often bring the same car to all three tracks and also use similar setups at all three places too. All three tracks are relatively flat, about the same length and the cars react almost identical on corner entry and exit at all three places. So that is why the three translate so well to each other.

So far this season we have had five races at those tracks. Martin's finishes in those races ... fifth, first, 14th, fourth and first. Johnson's finishes ... 36th, fourth, ninth, 11th, and fourth. All of that gives Martin an average finish of 5.0 and Johnson 12.8.

Even if you removed Johnson's poor finish at Richmond in the spring (36th), it's clear to see that Martin has a slight edge at this type of track this season. So don't be surprised to see Martin gain just a few points on Johnson this weekend and we go to Homestead with a championship battle that is a little closer than Johnson would like.

TIER 1

Johnson

Jimmie Johnson (No Change)
I am quite sure the Texas race is still causing some sleepless nights in the No. 48 camp but should it? Sure, the lead is just 73 points heading into these final two races but Johnson has been terrific at Phoenix in recent years. Certainly good enough to keep Martin in sight this weekend and likely put himself in a position to not lose too many points.

Think of it this way, Johnson has come to this particular race the past two years not really needing a win, just needing to finish well to maintain his championship lead, and yet he still was fast enough and aggressive enough to win the race ... both times. This team has been here before and they are savvy enough not to panic and stay focused on their task. A top-10 this weekend will give Johnson a terrific shot to win the title next week at Homestead, a track where, this time, Johnson will have the advantage on Martin.

TIER 2

Martin

Mark Martin (+1)
Mark Martin did not have the best car at Texas, but he and crew chief Alan Gustafson were able to work on it enough to come home with a solid finish and take advantage of Johnson's problems. Seventy-three points will be tough to make up in two weeks but this weekend at Phoenix is their best shot to gain a large chunk of ground.

Martin will likely be better than Johnson this weekend as I pointed out above but the problem is that Johnson will likely not be far behind. Trust me, in talking to some of the No. 5 team this week, they know Phoenix is their shot, so they will be unloading everything they can this weekend.

Of course that always starts at the shop and includes bringing your best car, which Gustafson is doing. The car Martin is bringing won both of their flat track races so far this season -- here at Phoenix this spring and also at New Hampshire a few weeks ago.

Martin was obviously very good here in the spring, bordering on dominant. While he may not dominate this time around, don't be surprised if Martin is your race winner and more importantly (for Martin fans) gains a few points on Johnson.

TIER 3

Gordon

Jeff Gordon (No Change)
I talked with Gordon earlier this week and he was so disappointed he was not able to take advantage of Johnson's problems at Texas. Who would have expected Gordon (especially after he won the pole) to spin out by himself and finish 13th? Not me, and I can tell you, certainly not Jeff Gordon. The opportunity to truly get back into this championship battle was missed and the likelihood of another one coming along is, to be honest, slim.

To compound the problem, this is the one race that Gordon has really been worried about in the Chase. Phoenix has been such a hit and miss track for Gordon through the years, even his one win here really came via pit strategy. Plus if you look at the flat track results for the No. 24 team in 2009, the results have been very up and down. They have run well at Richmond but then just so-so at both Phoenix and New Hampshire.

Unfortunately for the No. 24 team, they were not able to take advantage of the No. 48's problems on a track where they should have last week and they likely will not be able to gain on Johnson this week either.

Montoya

Juan Montoya (No Change)
The fairy tale start to the Chase for Montoya has officially come to a screeching halt. JPM found himself out of the Texas race early and down two more spots in the standings. If you just look at the stats, it doesn't look like things will get much better this weekend at Phoenix but sometimes numbers lie.

JPM has never finished better than 16th at Phoenix but he also boasted similar stats heading into this year's Chase races at New Hampshire, Dover, and Martinsville. The results in those races -- all top-fives. Thus has been the story of JPM's Chase, one career best finish after another.

Crew chief Brian Pattie is bringing yet another brand new car to the track this weekend. That's the fourth time he has done so in the Chase. The result each of the first three times -- career best finishes and top-fives for Montoya, so don't be surprised if it happens again as Pattie and the Earnhardt Ganassi guys continue to crank out strong cars.

Stewart

Tony Stewart (No Change)
It seems like Stewart has been coming from behind this entire Chase. Coming from behind in races, trying to come from behind in the Chase ... you name it, nothing has come easy for this No. 14 team in these final races of 2009. And yet here they are, fifth in the standings with a legit shot to pass a few more people in the next two races.

Stewart's chances are bolstered by the fact that the final two races are at very good tracks for him, especially this weekend at Phoenix. Stewart has driven just about everything around this track ... Silver Crown, IRL, Cup, Nationwide, even a Sprint car. To boot, he's won in everything he has driven here.

Stewart finished second to Martin here in the spring and I would not be shocked at all to see him win Sunday. Stewart is pretty much one of the best at every type of track the series visits, but if he has one discipline in which he excels, this is it.

Busch

Kurt Busch (+1)
Who predicted Kurt Busch would win last week at Texas? Other than that dude who won $1 million, I don't think anybody did. Of course having the right fuel mileage doesn't hurt things. But where's that been all season? Don't be surprised if KB is once again a "surprise" contender for the win this weekend. Not because he won last week and has some momentum, but because no matter what the situation, Busch has always been strong at Phoenix. Busch has finished third and second in his past two Phoenix races and should be very stout once again. Back-to-back wins? Just might happen.

TIER 4

Hamlin

Biffle

Newman

Kahne

Vickers

Denny Hamlin (No Change)
Despite the fact that he finished second at Texas, Hamlin did not run nearly as well as I thought he would. My bet is that will not be the case this week. Hamlin is flat terrific at these flat tracks. I've asked him this a million times, "why are you so good at those tracks?" He has always told me, the honest answer is because he is just comfortable on this type of track. They remind him of his hometown track, Southside Speedway in Richmond.

Whatever the reason, expect Hamlin to be a contender for the win once again. How many times have we said that so far in the Chase? Pretty amazing this team is eighth in the standings, despite how good they have been in the Chase. They really deserve to be contending with Johnson for the championship.

Hamlin will bring out a brand new car in Phoenix. This was planned from the beginning of the Chase and crew chief Mike Ford feels that it will be even better than the new car he brought out at New Hampshire that Hamlin called the best car ever to come out of the JGR stables. Should be interesting to see how good this car can be. Hamlin has five top-10s in his past six Phoenix races and he's a good bet to make it six out of seven.

Greg Biffle (No Change)
What is left to say about the Roush teams in the 2009 Chase? When does vacation start again?

It would be nice to talk about Biffle's strength at Phoenix, after all it is arguably one of the better tracks in his career. Biffle has four consecutive finishes of 11th or better at Phoenix, but then again, we were able to say the same thing heading into New Hampshire, Dover and California and none of those turned out well.

Biffle and I talked and he is really excited ... about his fishing trip to Mexico after the race this weekend. Excited about the race? Probably not as much is my guess.

Carl Edwards (No Change)
Ditto as above with the following changes ... Edwards has three consecutive top-10s at Phoenix and he does not plan to go fishing after the Phoenix race. Everything else above is true for Edwards, though.

Ryan Newman (No Change)
Phoenix has been an odd race track for Newman. Early in his career he put his stamp on this place with three consecutive poles and finishes of third and second in two consecutive races. But that was five years ago. Since then Newman has scored just one top-10 at Phoenix as he has struggled to find his feel at the flat tracks. Odd to say considering his pedigree and how good he once was at this type of track but Newman's best chance for a top-10 in these final two races of 2009 will likely come next week at Homestead.

Kasey Kahne (No Change)
The same can be said for Kahne, although some would argue he never really had the feel for the flat tracks in the first place -- it's just not his thing. Kahne finished fifth in his first career Phoenix race, a feat he has yet to equal since. Kahne has never led a lap here and his last top-10 was in 2006. Needless to say, this is not one of Kahne's best tracks. Next week at Homestead, however, the No. 9 team could have a legit shot to win the race. This week? Probably not.

Brian Vickers (No Change)
The Chase is just not getting any better for Vickers. Even when the No. 83 team goes to tracks where they are supposed to be strong, they falter, like last week at Texas. I've been saying it for eight weeks, where is the team that stormed their way into the Chase? Unlike Texas, Phoenix is just not a track where the No. 83 team expects to be strong. Vickers has just one career top-10 and unfortunately, the miserable Chase for Vickers has a very good chance of continuing this weekend.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.