Despite rough season, Roush drivers ones to beat

The final race of the 2009 Cup Series season is on tap at Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend. The annual running at the 1.5-mile true oval has been the final race of the season for some time now, and the drivers have become used to racing at the South Florida track with a "finishing target" in mind.

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With Jimmie Johnson needing to finish only 25th or better to clinch the title, it could have some significant impact on his fantasy racing value as well as some other drivers looking for measuring stick finishes in the Ford 400. If past seasons are any indication, this race should truly be up for grabs.

However, the Ford teams of Roush Fenway Racing have enjoyed a good share of the success and champagne in Victory Lane at HMS. Roush drivers have won the past five races at Homestead. That could change this season, but we still expect to see a fair number of Roush teams within the top 10 on Sunday afternoon.

We'll take a look at the historical trends, current hot streaks and the championship picture and put together a driver list for this event that takes all those factors into account. The following is our weekly power ranking for the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Top Fantasy Racing Drivers for Homestead

1. Greg Biffle
It doesn't seem to matter what kind of season Biffle has had, when he comes to Homestead he comes to win. The No. 16 team comes to life on this oval, and his recent dominance at intermediate oval Texas Motor Speedway is still fresh in our memory. Biffle has been mediocre in his past two outings at the South Florida oval, but don't forget that the veteran driver won three consecutive races here from 2004 to 2006.

2. Mark Martin
While Martin's championship chances are almost nil, we don't expect that to have any impact at all on his performance Sunday. The No. 5 team trails teammate Jimmie Johnson by 108 points entering this event. Barring an unforeseen mechanical problem or accident, the championship is Johnson's to win. However, Martin will do his best to keep the pressure on his Hendrick Motorsports teammate. He owns four career top-five finishes at HMS and will be bringing his best car yet to the track on Sunday.

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3. Kurt Busch
The No. 2 Penske Racing team is finishing the season strong and the Ford 400 will be another shot at Victory Lane for Busch. He has one career win at Homestead and two other top-five finishes there in the past four seasons. The former Cup champion will undoubtedly be gunning for Victory Lane in the Ford 400 and based on his current performance, we like his chances.

4. Jimmie Johnson
With Johnson now leading Mark Martin by 108 points entering this week's finale, the pressure to win is off. This has been a familiar theme for the No. 48 team the past three years. Come to Homestead, ride around for 267 laps, stay out of trouble and pick up your Cup trophy . This is likely the primary reason why Johnson has never won a race at HMS. That blueprint will likely remain for this week's event. Johnson still boasts five top-10s in eight career starts at the intermediate oval, so he's only a slightly less attractive fantasy racing option this weekend.

5. Denny Hamlin
Hamlin has shown some real consistency in recent weeks, so roll him with confidence in your fantasy lineups at Homestead. He has one victory and three top-fives in the past four races. The South Florida oval has been a pretty successful venue for the No. 11 team as well. Hamlin has a pair of top-five efforts in four career starts at Homestead.

6. Jeff Gordon
Despite being eliminated from championship contention, Gordon still makes a dependable fantasy racing play in the Ford 400. Gordon and the No. 24 Hendrick team have been at their best on intermediate ovals this season. The veteran driver also boasts good career numbers at Homestead. Gordon has a pair of fourth-place finishes in his past two races at HMS and he's cracked the top 10 there in 80 percent of his starts.

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7. Matt Kenseth
Kenseth and the No. 17 team haven't done much lately, but the Roush Fenway veteran is an upside play for the Ford 400. Kenseth has led close to 300 laps in his past two races at HMS and he came away with the win in the 2007 Ford 400. His recent success at the facility has included three top-10 finishes in his past four starts at Homestead. Kenseth's top-fives recently at Charlotte and Texas underscore his value in this event.

8. Jeff Burton
The surging No. 31 team finally have hit their stride. Burton comes to Homestead this week riding a three-race top-10 streak. When we combine that momentum with his historical record at the South Florida oval, we get a good vibe for the Ford 400. Burton has four career top-10s at Homestead, with his last coming in 2007.

9. Tony Stewart
A rebound performance is in order for the owner/driver of the No. 14 Chevrolet. His disappointment at Phoenix last week will be soon forgotten after Smoke takes to the track in Homestead. Stewart is a two-time winner at HMS and he's led close to 350 laps for his career at the oval. He led 11 laps and finished ninth in his final race for Joe Gibbs Racing in this event one year ago.

10. Kasey Kahne
Intermediate ovals have been good for the No. 9 Richard Petty Motorsports team this season. Kahne won at Atlanta earlier this year and he's recently collected top-10s at Kansas and Charlotte during the Chase. He has one pole and two top-10 finishes in his past three races at Homestead, so expect big things from Kahne on Sunday.