As rookies go, which way will Logano and Speed go?

Joey Logano finished 26th last week at Fontana, his best result in five races at the Sprint Cup level. Scott Speed has made seven starts with his best showing a 16th-place finish in last year's season finale at Homestead. Neither driver has finished better than 30th in any other race.

The two constitute the 2009 rookie class, the smallest since '05 and just the third two-driver class this decade. And while there remains a long way to go and both drivers are high in talent and celebrity, the dearth of recent rookie success begs the question: Where have all the good young drivers gone?

Rough start

It's been a rather inauspicious beginning to the season for Joey Logano and Scott Speed.

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The reality is that most already are here, dating to the highly successful 2006 bumper crop that has produced six Chase appearances. Of the six drivers in that class, five have full-time rides in '09:

• Denny Hamlin became the first rookie to make the Chase and finished third in points that year. He has made the Chase in each of his three full seasons.
• Clint Bowyer is coming off back-to-back Chase appearances in which he finished in the top five in points.
• Martin Truex Jr. made the Chase in '07 and became the face of DEI in 2008 after Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s departure.
• Reed Sorenson was the youngest of the group at age 20 and this year finds himself in the No. 43 Dodge of Richard Petty Motorsports.
• David Stremme is back this year after making just one start in '08, replacing 2002 rookie of the year Ryan Newman in the No. 12 Dodge of Penske Racing.

Sorenson is one of five current full-time drivers to have debuted since 2004 who are still 25 years old or younger: Brian Vickers (25), Kyle Busch (24), David Ragan (23), Sorenson (23) and Logano (19).

Ragan is part of the 2007 class that has flashed potential but not as yet made any significant waves. Ragan, while still winless, has since made the biggest gains, increasing his top-five total by four and top-10s by 11 in '08.

Juan Montoya was the 2007 rookie of the year with one win, three top-fives and six top-10s. But he regressed in '08 with two top-fives and three top-10s. Paul Menard, David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger have combined for two top-fives and nine top-10s in their careers.

You have to go back to 1998 when the rookie of the year didn't have double digits in top-10s. But you have to go back even farther to find a rookie class that didn't produce one single top-10, the distinction the 2008 class carries alone.

Regan Smith is the only rookie of the year not to post a top-10 finish since 1957, the first year NASCAR began recognizing rookies. Of course, Smith thought he had a win this past October at Talladega, but NASCAR claimed he made the winning pass below the yellow line. The penalty not only cost Smith a win, but his first top-10. He was dropped to the end of the lead line, which was 18th.

With the DEI-Ganassi merger, Smith found himself without a ride and although he landed with Furniture Row Racing, the team is running only a partial schedule. But of last year's five-driver class, only Sam Hornish Jr. has a full ride in '09. None of the other three drivers -- Patrick Carpentier, Michael McDowell and Dario Franchitti -- finished the season.

To that end, it's been 58 races since a rookie won a race in the Cup Series, 48 races since one posted a top-five and 38 races since the last top-10. (Continued)